Monday, November 10, 2025
By ATSStats.com – Home of the Raymond Report
Records lie. Schedules don’t. That’s why every Monday, we cut through the hype and evaluate who’s truly elite — and who’s skating on schedule luck. Using Power Ratings (PR) and Strength of Schedule (SOS) metrics, the Raymond Report model ranks performance through a bettor’s lens, not a fan’s bias.
This week’s snapshot? Anaheim and Carolina are catching fire, Calgary keeps burning bankrolls, and San Jose — yes, that San Jose — is quietly trending upward against a brutal slate. Let’s dive in.
🔥 Battle-Tested and Bankable
Teams delivering both results and context-adjusted credibility.
| Team | Record | SOS% | Power Rating | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anaheim | 11-4 | 53.16 | 0.63 | 7-game heater, balanced scoring, now demanding market respect. |
| Carolina | 11-4 | 52.00 | 0.63 | Consistency meets structure; dependable across all splits. |
| New Jersey | 11-4 | 53.41 | 0.63 | Cup-caliber rhythm, thriving despite facing elite competition. |
| Colorado | 10-6 | 54.07 | 0.58 | Quality wins against hard opponents; offense finally stabilizing. |
| Montreal | 10-5 | 46.47 | 0.57 | Underrated metrics, strong team identity, top-10 value play. |
Sharp Note: Anaheim’s 7-0 streak with a 0.72 short-term PR is unsustainable at that clip, but momentum plus structure equals staying power for now. New Jersey and Carolina are performing exactly as elite teams should — efficient, not lucky.
📈 Trending Up – Strong Form Against Fair Schedules
Solid records and improving efficiency without the soft slates.
| Team | Record | SOS% | PR | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | 8-7 | 53.97 | 0.54 | Back on track; power play heating up. |
| Detroit | 9-7 | 46.95 | 0.52 | Winning on consistency; young legs, sharp execution. |
| Utah | 9-7 | 47.11 | 0.52 | Expansion team behaving like a contender — steady and physical. |
| Winnipeg | 9-6 | 45.62 | 0.53 | Businesslike hockey; depth and discipline travel well. |
| Dallas | 9-7 | 48.25 | 0.52 | Even effort metrics, great balance; quietly profitable at home. |
Sharp Note: These are buy-low before the market adjusts teams. Utah continues to shock oddsmakers — not with flash, but with disciplined defense and netminder consistency.
⚠️ Middle of the Pack – Predictable, Price-Sensitive
Capable, but not exceeding expectations. These clubs define betting equilibrium.
| Team | Record | SOS% | PR | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 10-7 | 52.03 | 0.55 | Reliable, but priced fairly. No free value left. |
| Philadelphia | 8-7 | 47.54 | 0.50 | Working hard, middle-tier production. |
| Vegas | 7-7 | 52.29 | 0.51 | Regression risk; must tighten 5-on-5 defense. |
| Ottawa | 8-8 | 47.56 | 0.49 | Competitive, but inconsistent; not yet trustworthy. |
| Toronto | 8-8 | 50.45 | 0.50 | Offense shines one night, disappears the next. |
Sharp Note: These are fair-market teams — you win with timing, not trends. Focus on situational betting (travel, rest, divisional motivation).
🚧 Underperforming vs. Schedule
Teams with manageable schedules that still can’t convert chances into wins.
| Team | Record | SOS% | PR | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton | 6-10 | 50.06 | 0.44 | Lost confidence, leaky goals-against. Fade until fixed. |
| Los Angeles | 7-9 | 52.49 | 0.48 | Erratic play; flashes of brilliance buried under inconsistency. |
| Buffalo | 5-10 | 53.40 | 0.43 | Energy there, execution missing. |
| Minnesota | 7-10 | 48.90 | 0.45 | Slight signs of life, but talent gap obvious. |
| NY Rangers | 7-9 | 47.25 | 0.46 | Public team, no value — results match inconsistency. |
Sharp Note: Edmonton’s market remains inflated by name power. Until they correct defensive breakdowns, they’re a serial bankroll killer.
🔥 Quiet Risers & Underrated Angles
Don’t look now — these clubs are sneaking up on the market.
| Team | Record | SOS% | PR | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose | 7-9 | 56.25 | 0.50 | Improving vs elite; great dog returns recently. |
| Chicago | 8-8 | 49.88 | 0.50 | Competing above talent level, possible fade spot soon. |
| Florida | 7-8 | 54.78 | 0.51 | Trending neutral; goaltending stabilizing. |
Sharp Note: San Jose’s SOS (56.25) is one of the league’s toughest. The market hasn’t priced that grind properly. Excellent contrarian value when catching big dogs.
🚨 Fade Zone – No Pulse Yet
Teams offering more excuses than profits.
| Team | Record | SOS% | PR | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary | 4-13 | 48.61 | 0.36 | SOS soft, results brutal. Don’t touch them. |
| Nashville | 5-12 | 51.84 | 0.41 | Too many lapses; zero chemistry. |
| St. Louis | 5-11 | 46.54 | 0.39 | Can’t outscore issues; not bettable. |
| Washington | 7-8 | 47.42 | 0.47 | Aging core, fading consistency. |
Sharp Note: These are stay-away teams unless you’re playing contrarian value on short lines. For most bettors, they’re landmines, not opportunities.
🎯 Week 6 Betting Takeaways
- Buy: Anaheim, New Jersey, Carolina, Colorado, Tampa Bay
- Monitor: Detroit, Utah, San Jose (live dog angles)
- Fade: Calgary, Nashville, Edmonton, Washington
🏁 Final Word
We’re a month into the NHL season, and the SOS/PR matrix is now a truth serum. Anaheim isn’t lucky — they’re executing. Edmonton isn’t cursed — they’re careless. And bettors who still chase names instead of numbers are donating to the sportsbooks.
Stay disciplined. Follow the data.
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