Chalk rebounds, Overs wake up, and the dog-pound keeps cashing. November hockey is officially a roller coaster.
Today’s NHL Sports Betting Index (SBI) report from ATSstats.com shows a market that’s stabilizing in some areas and completely lopsided in others. After a wild stretch where favorites were collapsing and puck-line underdogs were printing money, we saw a short-term bounce for chalk on Wednesday — but don’t let that fool you. The deeper trends still scream underdog value and ATS chaos across the board.
Let’s break down what’s happening inside the NHL betting markets.
🧊 Straight-Up (SU): Chalk Shows Life, But the Trend Is Still Shaky
Favorites SU YTD: 58.1% – BULLISH
Despite the long-term bullish rating, the recent pattern is far less convincing:
- 1 Day: 75% (Bullish rebound)
- Last 3 Days: 56.3% (Neutral)
- Last 7 Days: 45.6% favorites (Neutral trending bearish)
That 7-day number is the big story. Favorites are winning less than half their games in the past week, and the only reason the SU chart looks bullish today is because all three favorites won last night.
Translation:
Don’t trust this rebound blindly. One good night doesn’t fix a shaky market. The dog wave is still alive beneath the surface.
Where the chalk is safe:
- Elite home teams with rest
- Goalie mismatches
- Pacific and Metro division heavyweights
🐾 Against the Spread (ATS): The Dog Pound Remains King
Favorites ATS YTD: 32.2% – BEARISH
Underdogs ATS YTD: 67.9% – BULLISH
This is the clearest trend in all of hockey betting — and it’s not close.
Over the last month:
- Favorites ATS: 34%
- Last 7 days: 17.4% favorites ATS
- Last 3 days: 27.7% favorites ATS
- Wednesday: 1–3 ATS (25%)
The puck-line continues to be the easiest way to attack the board. Books are hanging inflated spreads on name-brand favorites, and teams simply aren’t closing the distance.
This is where sharp bettors get paid:
- +1.5 dogs remain the highest-value angle in the NHL
- Road underdogs have been especially profitable
- Even when favorites win, they’re scraping by in one-goal games
Smart bettors aren’t fading individual teams — they’re fading overpriced situations.
🔥 Totals (O/U): Overs Finally Perk Up
Overs YTD: 51.7% – NEUTRAL
After several weeks of mixed results, the totals market is starting to settle:
- 1 Day: 75% Overs
- Last 3 Days: 50%
- Last 7 Days: 47.6%
- 1 Month: 50.8%
The 75% burst last night was the result of elite offensive matchups and shaky goaltending — not the start of a major Over trend.
What we’re seeing:
- Scoring is slightly up, but still inconsistent
- Market remains properly priced
- Overs should be played selectively:
- Tired defenses
- Poor penalty kills
- Fast-paced divisional games
No automatic angle here — you must cap totals game-by-game.
📊 Market Summary
| Category | Trend | Rating | What It Means |
|---|---|---|---|
| SU Favorites | Neutral → Bullish long-term | 58.1% | Chalk occasionally hits, but not consistently |
| ATS Favorites | Strongly Bearish | 32.2% | Puck-line underdogs are dominating |
| Totals | Neutral | 51.7% | No sustained trend; Overs/Unders rotate |
🧠 Market Psychology
This is the classic mid-November swing:
- Public bettors are overvaluing favorites, chasing last season’s narratives
- Books are inflating lines, daring bettors to lay -160 to -220
- Underdogs are winning the grind, even when they lose SU
- Totals are tightening up, removing easy Over plays
The smarter bettors right now are leaning into situational hockey — rest, travel, goalie cycles, and streak patterns — rather than name brands.
✅ Betting Blueprint for Thursday, Nov 13
- Lean underdogs ATS — the trend is overwhelming
- Don’t chase last night’s chalk rebound unless the matchup warrants it
- Play Overs selectively — only when both pace and goaltending vulnerabilities align
- Look for neutral-site or tired-road spots to exploit weak favorites
🏁 Final Word
The NHL betting market continues to favor sharp discipline over public emotion. Favorites may have bounced back last night, but the deeper data still screams one message:
Dogs rule the board. Chalk risks your bankroll.
Stay on the right side of the trends and follow today’s SBI charts, team cycles, and Raymond Report metrics at ATSstats.com — the home of data-driven hockey betting. 🧠🏒💰
