Montreal Alouettes vs Saskatchewan Roughriders
Sunday, Nov 16 – 6:00 PM ET • IG Field, Winnipeg
Line: Riders -3.5 | Total: 48.5 | ML: MTL +152 / SASK -184
Alright folks—no home-field advantage, no loud Roughrider crowd tilting the refs, and no Montreal winter wind turning punts into frisbees. Neutral site, frozen Manitoba night, winner takes the 112th Grey Cup. Just two teams, two fan bases ready to riot, and a sportsbook line begging for action. Let’s unpack this using Raymond Report fundamentals so you can make sharp decisions instead of guessing like your buddy who bets based on uniform colors.
📊 Market Psychology & Performance Indicators
| Team | C.O.W | C.O.C | C.O.G.O | VI | Recent Cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal | 46.15% | 44% | 73% | 10 | Bullish – 2 SU / 2 ATS wins |
| Saskatchewan | 57.5% | 22% | 73% | -4.2 | Neutral / Bearish – 1 SU, 2 ATS wins but 6-straight Unders |
Interpretation
- Montreal comes in hot, confident, and undervalued according to VI.
- Saskatchewan is power-rated higher, but the negative VI tells us the market may be overpriced at -3.5.
Momentum edge? Montreal.
Power rating edge? Saskatchewan.
Value edge? Montreal.
📉 Strength of Schedule (Last 3 Games)
| SOS | Montreal | Saskatchewan |
|---|---|---|
| Last 3 Games | 55.56% | 66.67% |
Saskatchewan faced stronger recent opponents—so that sharpens them—but Montreal is playing cleaner football in crunch time.
🔥 Team Form & Trend Breakdown
Last 5 Games
- Montreal: 4-1 SU / 3-2 ATS – Offense rolling (PF 28.0 / PA 21.2)
- Saskatchewan: 3-2 SU / 3-1-1 ATS – Defensive grinder (PF 21.6 / PA 19.4)
Recent Totals
- Montreal: 2-3 O/U
- Saskatchewan: 0-5 O/U (the Under train is real)
When totals streaks like that show up this late in the season, something’s not random—it’s identity.
🏈 Matchup Forecast & Computer Prediction
Raymond Report Computer Forecast
🧠 Saskatchewan 27.11 – Montreal 26.05
📈 Total Projection: 53.16
Projected Edges
- Spread: Montreal +3.5 covers the number
- Total: Projection suggests Over, but situational cycle supports Under
- Neutral site: removes crowd and travel edges → sharper line, tighter scoring
📚 The “Neutral Grey Cup Effect”
Grey Cups on neutral fields historically trend toward:
- Closer margins
- Stronger defensive play early
- Field goal decisions over risky gambles
- Coaches tightening up playbooks
In that environment, +3.5 becomes more valuable than at any other time of year.
🎯 Raymond Report Value Play
Official Value Play
Montreal Alouettes +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Lean: Under 48.5 (Based on recent Saskatchewan cycles & championship scoring trends) ⭐⭐⭐
Moneyline Sprinkle: Montreal +152 💰
🏆 Ron’s Prediction
Montreal 26 – Saskatchewan 23
Late field goal → Montreal lifts the Grey Cup.
💡 Betting Tip of the Day
Neutral sites shrink margins. When the number starts at 3.5, value lives on the dog.
If you’re betting with your heart, you’ll pay the price.
If you’re betting with the Raymond Report, you’ll cash the ticket.
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