Sports Betting Index (SBI) Market Temperature – Where the Action Is and Who’s Getting Paid
Well, well, well… the NFL betting markets continue to behave like a moody teenager. One week everything is hot, favorites are cashing like an ATM on Christmas Eve… and the next week, totals fall flat and underdogs play spoiler like they’re auditioning for a reality show called “Wreck Your Survivor Pool.”
Let’s tear the Band-Aid off and break down the numbers entering Week 12 using the ATSstats.com Sports Betting Index. Remember—if you want to survive long-term in sports wagering, you better learn to ride the cycles, not fight them.
Straight Up (SU) Favorites – Still Running the Show
Week 11 SU Favorites: 73.3%
SBI Rating: BULLISH
Season-to-Date SU Favorites: 65.5% (BULLISH)
Favorites continue to dominate the moneyline market. 73.3% in Week 11 keeps the season trend strong, and at 65.5% YTD, this is a classic “don’t overthink it” cycle. If you’re backing big dogs purely for the thrill—congrats, your bankroll is probably on life support.
What this means:
• Moneyline favorites remain the safest portfolio play.
• If you’re betting ML underdogs right now, you’d better have value indicators like DMVI / PVI-SOS / COW in your pocket or a really good horoscope.
Over / Unders – Unders Take Control
Week 11 O/U Record: 40% OVER / 60% UNDER – BEARISH ON OVERS
Season-to-Date: 53.4% OVER (NEUTRAL)
Totals flipped hard this week. The Over train that hammered the books in Week 8 and Week 10 slammed on the brakes in Week 11.
Translation:
• Defense is catching up.
• Books have inflated totals after recent scoring explosions.
• Weather games and late-season injuries are now real factors.
If you’re still blindly betting Overs like it’s Week 3?
You’re probably the same guy who says “one more spin” at the blackjack table. Stop it. Be better.
ATS Results – Neutral and Chaotic
Week 11 ATS Favorites: 46.7% Fav / 40% Dogs / 2 pushes – NEUTRAL
Season-to-Date ATS: 56.9% Favorites (Neutral leaning bullish)
ATS is the most volatile market right now. SU favorites are cruising, but covering the spread has been a coin flip—meaning the sportsbooks have been the only consistent winners.
Why?
Because lines have tightened. Oddsmakers aren’t guessing anymore. They’ve got data and half the public’s wallet.
Market Summary
| Category | Current Trend | Market Rating | Action Angle |
|---|---|---|---|
| SU Favorites | 73.3% Week 11 / 65.5% YTD | BULLISH | Ride favorites until cycle breaks |
| Totals (OVER) | 40% Week 11 | BEARISH | Look for Under spots & weather angles |
| ATS Favorites | 46.7% Week 11 | NEUTRAL | Bet Value, not teams |
Takeaways Entering Week 12
🔥 Favorites are still eating — SU moneyline plays remain strong
🌧 Unders gaining traction — especially outdoor late-season games
⚖ ATS spreads tough to beat — use Raymond Report fundamentals and wait for misprices
Smart Betting Tip of the Week:
When the SBI is Bullish favorites and Bearish totals, think correlated outcomes:
Favorite + Under is historically a profitable combination when defenses start taking over and books inflate totals.
Final Word
The market is tightening, and casual bettors are getting smoked. This is where sharp discipline wins. Manage cycles. Respect the SBI. And for the love of bankroll preservation—stop chasing long-shot underdogs like you’re auditioning for a Disney movie.
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Good luck this week!
Bet smart. Bet disciplined. And remember—nobody goes broke taking profits.
