Thursday, November 27, 2025
Thanksgiving football is here — three games, twelve quarters, and a buffet of hard data from the Raymond Report to help bettors build their own case before kickoff. No opinions, no predictions, just the facts that matter from market cycles, situational analytics, and performance indicators.
GAME 1 – Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
1:00 PM ET • Detroit -3.5 (48)
The Raymond Report forecast projects Detroit 27.44 – Green Bay 22.8 with a projected total of 50.24 points. Both teams enter today as A-Type clubs in the Raymond Report structure, each in a Neutral market cycle, and both share the same short-term strength of schedule rating at 22.22%. Detroit holds a 67.16% Chances of Winning (C.O.W.) compared to Green Bay’s 31.43%, while the Lions also carry a 56% Chances of Covering (C.O.C.), which is notably higher than the Packers’ 20%. Chances of the game going over (C.O.G.O.) sit evenly at 52%.
Detroit has a 5–0 side edge advantage based on the Raymond Report analytics. Historically, Thanksgiving and November trends lean toward offense: the Lions are 18–11 ATS and 19–10 O/U in Week 13 matchups, while the Packers have gone 14–6 to the Over in Week 13 since 1983. Detroit has dominated the recent head-to-head profile at home, going 6–3–1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Over is 26–17 at Ford Field versus Green Bay dating back 40 seasons.
Recently, Detroit has averaged 29.0 points per game over its last three outings compared to Green Bay’s 19.0, and the Lions have scored an average of 31.3 points over their last ten games, showing one of the strongest long-range offensive profiles in the NFC. Green Bay enters with back-to-back wins, while Detroit returns home after matching wins and a 34–27 victory over the Giants.
GAME 2 – Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys
4:30 PM ET • Kansas City -4.5 (52.5)
The Raymond Report forecast calls for Kansas City 29.33 – Dallas 24.56 with a projected total of 53.89. Both teams come in as B-Type clubs in Neutral market cycles, but Kansas City shows a stronger short-term schedule rating at 55.55% vs Dallas’ 22.22%. Kansas City’s C.O.W. sits at 66.67%, twice the Cowboys’ 33.33%, while the Chiefs also show a high C.O.C. reading of 77%. Both teams display an identical 69% C.O.G.O. likelihood.
Dallas holds a 7–4 side edge advantage, suggesting stronger distribution of matchup categories, and the Cowboys carry 10 total edges to the Over, compared to Kansas City’s 5 Over / 4 Under profile. Historically, this matchup has been completely one-sided in Texas — Kansas City is 0–5 SU and 0–3-2 ATS in Dallas since 1983, while Dallas is 5–0 SU and 3–0-2 ATS at home vs KC.
Kansas City enters after a 23–20 win over Indianapolis but has struggled on the road at 1–4 SU and 1–4 ATS, while Dallas continues to be one of the league’s highest-scoring teams, averaging 30.0 points per game over their last ten games. On short rest, Kansas City has historically responded well at 6–3-1 ATS, while Dallas sits slightly below .500 at 19–20-1 ATS with three days off.
GAME 3 – Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
8:20 PM ET • Baltimore -7.5 (52)
The Raymond Report forecast projects Baltimore 31.35 – Cincinnati 23.43 with a total expectation of 54.78. Baltimore enters the matchup as a B-Type team in a Bullish cycle, while Cincinnati falls into a C-Type Bearish profile with four straight losses and heavy regression indicators. The Ravens hold a 69.57% C.O.W. rating versus Cincinnati’s 30.43% and have won five straight games, allowing just 13.4 points per game across their last five outings. Cincinnati has allowed 35.4 points per game over that same stretch.
Situationally, Baltimore has been one of the strongest teams historically in Week 13, posting a 20–9 Over record and going 15–13-1 ATS in that window. Head-to-head in Baltimore, the Ravens are 29–13 SU since 1983, while Cincinnati has gone 7–3 ATS in the last 10 trips, suggesting tighter spread performance than the scoreboard indicates. At home this season, Baltimore sits 3–3 SU with a 4–2 O/U record, while Cincinnati is 1–4 SU and 0–5 ATS on the road.
Cincinnati enters after a 26–20 loss to New England, while Baltimore returns from a 23–10 win over the Jets and is currently playing its best defensive football of the season.
Final Thoughts
Three games, six teams, and mountains of Raymond Report analytics to chew on while the turkey cooks. Whether bettors are evaluating market cycles, short-rest tendencies, head-to-head patterns, or scoring arcs, Thanksgiving Day offers layers of data-driven opportunities — no opinions needed, the numbers tell the story.
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