Welcome to The Raymond Report, your source for leveraging Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Power Ratings (PR) to find high-value bets in the NHL. This data highlights which teams are thriving, which are struggling, and where the smart money should go.
🔥 The Elite Tier: High PR, High Confidence
These teams are not just winning; they are doing so with high Power Ratings, making their success highly predictive and sustainable.
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Tampa Bay Lightning (PR 0.58, 16-9 W-L)
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The Lightning are on a red-hot streak, going an undefeated 7-0 in the Last 7 Games with a league-best recent PR of 0.77 against a solid SOS (53.06%). This team is currently playing at an elite level, crushing opponents. They are a must-back in almost any matchup, making them the most confident play on the board.
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Colorado Avalanche (PR 0.61, 18-7 W-L)
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The Avalanche are consistently dominant, with a 72.00% season win rate and a PR of 0.61. Their 6-1 run in the Last 7 Games with a PR of 0.67 proves they are sustaining this elite performance. They are a safe, high-confidence bet.
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📈 Under-the-Radar & Value Bets: Strong Recent Surge
These teams’ recent play is significantly better than their season record suggests, creating immediate betting value.
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Minnesota Wild (PR 0.52, 14-12 W-L)
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The Wild have gone 6-1 in the Last 7 Games with an impressive PR of 0.68. This surge is against an average SOS (51.02%). Their recent performance over the last two weeks (11-3 record, PR 0.64) shows they have fully turned the corner. Bet the Wild as the market may still be valuing them based on their middling season PR.
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Philadelphia Flyers (PR 0.54, 14-10 W-L)
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The Flyers are 5-2 in their last seven games, but the key is their recent PR of 0.63 against a tough SOS of 55.10%. Winning against strong opponents shows legitimacy. They are a strong value play, especially on the moneyline, as their high recent PR suggests they can compete with top teams.
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Washington Capitals (PR 0.54, 15-11 W-L)
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Washington is 6-1 in their last 7 games with a strong recent PR of 0.67. This is another team that has separated from their season average and is peaking now. They are a solid back until their form dips.
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📉 Fade Candidates: Weak Recent Form vs. Average/Tough Schedule
These teams are struggling and should be faded (bet against) until they can prove otherwise.
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Columbus Blue Jackets (PR 0.47, 11-14 W-L)
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Columbus has a poor 2-5 record in the Last 7 Games with an alarmingly low recent PR of 0.38. They are failing to generate wins even against an average schedule (SOS 46.94%). They are a clear fade candidate.
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Detroit Red Wings (PR 0.49, 13-13 W-L)
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The Red Wings are sinking, going 2-5 in the Last 7 Games with a weak recent PR of 0.39. Their overall season PR is middling, but their poor recent form makes them a risky bet and a good fade when playing against any team in the Elite or Value Tiers.
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Utah (PR 0.48, 12-14 W-L)
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With a 2-5 record in the Last 7 Games and a miserable recent PR of 0.39, Utah is severely struggling. The schedule has been average (SOS 48.98%), indicating their struggles are internal. Fade Utah without hesitation.
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🚨 The Schedule Danger Zone: Edmonton Oilers
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Edmonton Oilers (PR 0.46, 11-15 W-L):
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The Oilers have a deceiving recent PR of 0.54 but are only 3-4 in the Last 7 Games. Crucially, they have the toughest recent schedule by far (SOS 65.31%). This suggests they are playing better (PR 0.54) but losing because their opponents are elite. This makes them a “hold” or cautious bet. If they face a team with a low PR ($\le 0.45$), they might win; if they face another elite team, they are likely to lose despite playing well.
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🎲 Summary Betting Strategy
| Category | Teams | Betting Recommendation |
| Elite Backs | TBL, COL | Strong back (Moneyline or Spread). Highest confidence plays. |
| Value Backs | MIN, PHI, WSH | Value bet (Moneyline). Back these teams until the market catches up to their hot streak. |
| Clear Fades | CBJ, DET, UTA | Strong fade/bet-against. Exploit their current slumps and low recent PRs. |
| Hold/Tough Spot | EDM | Proceed with caution. Playing well but losing to top competition. Bet only against weak teams. |
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