Welcome to the heart of the Bluegrass State. It’s Friday, April 24, 2026, and the spring meet at Keeneland is delivering exactly what the big-money players expect: high-stakes drama, elite pedigree, and a 10-race card that would make any horseplayer salivate. We are tracking a total purse value north of $1 million today, headlined by the massive $350,000 Stakes in Race 8.
At ATS Stats, we don’t just “guess” who looks good in the paddock. We lean on the Raymond Report, utilizing the Artificial Intelligence Picks League (AIPL) to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Whether you are looking for sports betting stats to back up your hunch or elite cappers picks to guide your exacta boxes, this report is your clinical roadmap to the winner’s circle.
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THE RAYMOND REPORT METRICS: UNDERSTANDING C.O.W.
In our analysis, we frequently reference the C.O.W., which stands for Chance of Winning. This metric is the cornerstone of the Raymond Report, calculating the probability of a horse hitting the board based on historical situational data, trainer/jockey win percentages, and recent form. Today, we are seeing a heavy dominance from the Ortiz brothers, with Irad and Jose lighting up the win percentages across multiple surfaces.
RACE #1: MAIDEN CLAIMING – 1:00 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt | Purse: $48,000
| PICK | HORSE | M/L ODDS | JOCKEY (WIN %) | SENTIMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (3) Backside | 9-5 | I. Ortiz, Jr. (34%) | BULLISH (A) |
| PLACE | (2) Punkin Boy | 20-1 | A. Concepcion (35%) | NEUTRAL (C) |
| SHOW | (6) Otzelberger | 3-1 | D. Sheehy (28%) | NEUTRAL (B) |
| JOKER | (4) Quality Spirits | 7-5 | B. Curtis (20%) | BULLISH (A) |
STRATEGY:
- EXACTA: 3/2 BOX, 2/6 BOX, 6/4 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 3/2/6 BOX, 4/2/6 BOX
RACE #2: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT – 1:32 PM ET
Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs on the Turf | Purse: $90,000
| PICK | HORSE | M/L ODDS | JOCKEY (WIN %) | SENTIMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (2) Glitz and Ritz | 15-1 | J. L. Ortiz (38%) | BEARISH (B) |
| PLACE | (5) Shining Moment | 7-5 | I. Ortiz, Jr. (34%) | BULLISH (A) |
| SHOW | (1) More Champagne | 12-1 | J. R. Velazquez (28%) | NEUTRAL (B) |
| JOKER | (8) Extravaganzoo | 7-2 | T. Gaffalione (28%) | BULLISH (A) |
STRATEGY:
- EXACTA: 2/5 BOX, 5/1 BOX, 1/8 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 2/5/1 BOX, 8/5/1 BOX
RACE #3: MAIDEN CLAIMING – 2:04 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt | Purse: $48,000
| PICK | HORSE | M/L ODDS | JOCKEY (WIN %) | SENTIMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (5) Stay Beautiful | 10-1 | J. D. Ramos (40%) | BULLISH (B) |
| PLACE | (10) Golexgo | 30-1 | S. E. Bermudez (28%) | BEARISH (C) |
| SHOW | (6) Lexi’s Melody | 20-1 | D. Sheehy (28%) | NEUTRAL (C) |
| JOKER | (2) Speed Skater | 6-5 | F. Prat (26%) | BULLISH (A) |
STRATEGY:
- EXACTA: 5/10 BOX, 10/6 BOX, 6/2 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 5/10/6 BOX, 2/10/6 BOX
RACE #4: CLAIMING – 2:36 PM ET
Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs on the Dirt | Purse: $58,000
| PICK | HORSE | M/L ODDS | JOCKEY (WIN %) | SENTIMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (6) Compressed | 15-1 | J. L. Ortiz (38%) | BULLISH (B) |
| PLACE | (2) Damascus Steel | 5-2 | I. Ortiz, Jr. (34%) | BULLISH (A) |
| SHOW | (8) Dr Fenn | 30-1 | D. Sheehy (28%) | BEARISH (C) |
| JOKER | (4) Sometime | 6-1 | L. Saez (26%) | NEUTRAL (B) |
STRATEGY:
- EXACTA: 6/2 BOX, 2/8 BOX, 8/4 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 6/2/8 BOX, 4/2/8 BOX
RACE #5: MAIDEN CLAIMING – 3:08 PM ET
Distance: 6 Furlongs on the Dirt | Purse: $77,000
| PICK | HORSE | M/L ODDS | JOCKEY (WIN %) | SENTIMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (4) Creature | 10-1 | J. L. Ortiz (38%) | BULLISH (B) |
| PLACE | (5) Mainstream | 6-5 | I. Ortiz, Jr. (34%) | BULLISH (A) |
| SHOW | (1) Inordinary | 4-1 | T. Gaffalione (28%) | NEUTRAL (B) |
| JOKER | (2) Easy Dial | 8-1 | D. Sheehy (28%) | NEUTRAL (C) |
STRATEGY:
- EXACTA: 4/5 BOX, 5/1 BOX, 1/2 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 4/5/1 BOX, 2/5/1 BOX
RACE #6: ALLOWANCE – 3:40 PM ET
Distance: 7 Furlongs on the Dirt | Purse: $120,000
| PICK | HORSE | M/L ODDS | JOCKEY (WIN %) | SENTIMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (4) Queen Jubilee | 10-1 | J. L. Ortiz (38%) | BULLISH (B) |
| PLACE | (3) Absolute Honor | 7-5 | I. Ortiz, Jr. (34%) | BULLISH (A) |
| SHOW | (1) Sassy Princess | 9-2 | T. Gaffalione (28%) | NEUTRAL (B) |
| JOKER | (6) Expecto Patronum | 12-1 | L. Saez (26%) | NEUTRAL (B) |
STRATEGY:
- EXACTA: 4/3 BOX, 3/1 BOX, 1/6 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 4/3/1 BOX, 6/3/1 BOX
RACE #7: STARTER ALLOWANCE – 4:12 PM ET
Distance: 6 Furlongs on the Dirt | Purse: $69,000
| PICK | HORSE | M/L ODDS | JOCKEY (WIN %) | SENTIMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (2) Show Time | 3-1 | J. L. Ortiz (38%) | BULLISH (A) |
| PLACE | (4) Freeze the Fire | 5-2 | I. Ortiz, Jr. (34%) | BULLISH (A) |
| SHOW | (1) Five o’ Somewhere | 8-1 | A. Concepcion (35%) | NEUTRAL (B) |
| JOKER | (3) Swill | 5-1 | F. De La Cruz (28%) | NEUTRAL (B) |
STRATEGY:
- EXACTA: 2/4 BOX, 4/1 BOX, 1/3 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 2/4/1 BOX, 3/4/1 BOX
RACE #8: THE $350,000 STAKES – 4:44 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/2 Miles on the Turf | Purse: $350,000
This is the main event. At a grueling 1.5 miles on the turf, stamina and tactical positioning are the only things that matter. The Ortiz brothers are once again the center of attention here, but the morning line favorite Speed Shopper will have plenty to say about the final turn.
| PICK | HORSE | M/L ODDS | JOCKEY (WIN %) | SENTIMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (6) Mrs. Astor | 4-1 | J. L. Ortiz (38%) | BULLISH (A) |
| PLACE | (8) Literate | 7-2 | I. Ortiz, Jr. (34%) | BULLISH (A) |
| SHOW | (9) Speed Shopper | 5-2 | J. R. Velazquez (28%) | BULLISH (A) |
| JOKER | (3) Venencia | 10-1 | T. Gaffalione (28%) | NEUTRAL (B) |
STRATEGY:
- EXACTA: 6/8 BOX, 8/9 BOX, 9/3 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 6/8/9 BOX, 3/8/9 BOX
RACE #9: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT – 5:16 PM ET
Distance: 6 Furlongs on the Dirt | Purse: $110,000
| PICK | HORSE | M/L ODDS | JOCKEY (WIN %) | SENTIMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (1) Island Town | 8-1 | J. L. Ortiz (38%) | BULLISH (B) |
| PLACE | (11) Happy I Got It | 30-1 | A. Gomez (36%) | BEARISH (C) |
| SHOW | (3) Hovland | 5-1 | I. Ortiz, Jr. (34%) | BULLISH (B) |
| JOKER | (2) Stunning | 20-1 | A. Achard (34%) | NEUTRAL (C) |
STRATEGY:
- EXACTA: 1/11 BOX, 11/3 BOX, 3/2 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 1/11/3 BOX, 2/11/3 BOX
RACE #10: ALLOWANCE – 5:48 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles on the Turf | Purse: $130,000
| PICK | HORSE | M/L ODDS | JOCKEY (WIN %) | SENTIMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | (4) Awesomesauce | 15-1 | J. L. Ortiz (38%) | BULLISH (B) |
| PLACE | (11) Massarat | 5-1 | I. Ortiz, Jr. (34%) | BULLISH (B) |
| SHOW | (1) Strong Destiny | 4-1 | F. De La Cruz (28%) | NEUTRAL (B) |
| JOKER | (10) Random Harvest | 10-1 | J. R. Velazquez (28%) | NEUTRAL (B) |
STRATEGY:
- EXACTA: 4/11 BOX, 11/1 BOX, 1/10 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 4/11/1 BOX, 10/11/1 BOX
TOP 5 BETTING OPTIONS – THE RAYMOND REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
According to our internal sports betting picks algorithm and current market data, here are the top 5 highest-confidence options for today’s Keeneland card:
- Race 1: (3) Backside (9-5) – Highest C.O.W. score in dirt sprints today.
- Race 5: (5) Mainstream (6-5) – Clinical efficiency from the Ortiz/Cox connection.
- Race 8: (6) Mrs. Astor (4-1) – Massive value play in the G3 Bewitch.
- Race 2: (5) Shining Moment (7-5) – Turf sprint specialist with elite jockey metrics.
- Race 7: (2) Show Time (3-1) – Consistent performance indicators in starter allowance.
Keeneland is a track where speed meets class. If you aren’t using the Raymond Report and the AIPL data, you are essentially flying blind. For more granular data on the NHL, MLB, and NBA, be sure to check our latest NHL Picks and see how our AI is dissecting the puck line and moneylines tonight.
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