Wednesday in the sports betting world usually means one thing: the grind is in full effect. But today isn’t your average Wednesday. Ron Raymond just hopped off the mic for the latest edition of The Raymond Report, and he didn’t just scratch the surface: he went deep into the laboratory.
If you missed the live stream, you missed a masterclass in data-driven handicapping. From the 20-horse minefield that is the 2026 Kentucky Derby to a loaded board featuring MLB, the NBA Playoffs, and the NHL postseason, Ron broke down the numbers using the ATS Stats proprietary framework.
WATCH THE FULL SHOW HERE: The Raymond Report – April 29, 2026
The 2026 Kentucky Derby: Analyzing the 20-Horse Field
The “Run for the Roses” is just days away, and Ron spent a significant portion of today’s show dissecting the field. At ATS Stats, we don’t just look at who’s fast; we look at the C.O.W. (Chance of Winning) and the historical metrics that separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Drawing the rail is always a conversation starter. #1 Renegade (9-2) is the favorite for a reason, coming off a monster win in the Arkansas Derby. But as Ron pointed out, Pletcher is 2-65 in the Derby. Is the 9-2 value enough to overcome the history of the #1 post?
On the other side of the spectrum, you have the “Legacy” runners and the international wildcards. #7 Danon Bourbon (50-1) arrives from Japan with a perfect 3-for-3 record, winning by a combined 18 lengths. The Raymond Report metrics suggest that while the “Front-Runner” style is risky in a 20-horse stampede, the raw data from the Fukuryu Stakes makes him a live longshot.
The Field Snapshot (By Post Position)
| Post | Horse | Odds | Style | Key Metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | 9-2 | Closer | Pletcher’s 3rd win? |
| 2 | Albus | 40-1 | Off the Pace | Riley Mott’s 1st Derby |
| 3 | Intrepido | 50-1 | Stalker | 5-furlong work in 57s |
| 4 | Litmus Test | 30-1 | Tactical | Sired by Nyquist (2016 Winner) |
| 5 | Right to Party | 50-1 | Deep Closer | Only raced at Aqueduct |
| 6 | Commandment | 6-1 | Stalker | Cox/Saez Combo |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | 50-1 | Front-Runner | 3-0-0 in Japan |
| 8 | So Happy | 15-1 | Stalker | Santa Anita Derby Winner |
| 9 | The Puma | 10-1 | Stalker | Sired by Essential Quality |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | 25-1 | Stalker | UAE Derby Winner |
| 11 | Incredibolt | 25-1 | Stalker | Won Virginia Derby |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | 10-1 | Pressing Stalker | Bill Mott trainee |
| 13 | Silent Tactic | 30-1 | Closer | Arkansas Derby Runner-up |
| 14 | Potente | 15-1 | Speed | $2.4M Purchase Price |
| 15 | Emerging Market | 20-1 | Mid-pack | Only 2 career starts |
| 16 | Pavlovian | 40-1 | Front-Runner | 10 career races |
| 17 | Six Speed | 40-1 | Front-Runner | UAE Derby Prep (0-21 trend) |
| 18 | Further Ado | 5-1 | Stalker | Blue Grass Stakes Winner |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | 30-1 | Deep Closer | Sired by Curlin |
| 20 | Fulleffort | 20-1 | Closer | Never raced on Dirt |
Midweek Hardball: MLB Analytics
Ron shifted gears into the MLB slate, focusing on the value of the “Volume Report” and the “Market Index.” Today’s MLB card is tricky, but the data-first approach at ATS Stats simplifies the noise.
One of the highlighted matchups involved the AL East showdown. If you’re looking for the edge in the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays matchup, Ron’s analysis on the show focused heavily on the pitching regression models. When the “Law of Average Pick” aligns with a Bullish market sentiment, that’s where the smart money lands.
NBA Playoffs: 3 High-Stakes Games
The hardwood is heating up, and Ron took a clinical look at three critical NBA Playoff games scheduled for tonight. The focus wasn’t just on the superstars, but on the “SOS” (Strength of Schedule) and the “PVI” (Power Value Index) adjustments for the postseason.
For those following the Western Conference battle, the Timberwolves vs. Nuggets analysis is a prime example of how Ron uses historical situational statistics. Denver’s performance coming off a non-division game vs. Minnesota’s road ATS record provides a clear hierarchical flow for bettors. Ron’s “Top Play” on the NBA board is backed by a 10-year situational trend: but you’ll have to watch the podcast to see which side he’s riding.
NHL Playoff Intensity: 3 Games on Ice
The NHL postseason is a different beast. Ron highlighted three matchups tonight, emphasizing that puck line recommendations are for the amateurs: we play the Side (Moneyline) or the Total here.
A major point of discussion was the Vegas Golden Knights vs. Utah Mammoth Game 4. The Raymond Report metrics look at the L100 games and the “Scoring Avg” to determine if a Total has been inflated by public perception.
The AIPL: Own Your Edge
During the show, Ron touched on the Artificial Intelligence Picks League (AIPL). This isn’t just another picks site; it’s a franchise. For the serious bettor or the aspiring handicapper, the AIPL allows you to buy and own your own AI Capper Franchise.
- Manual Mode: You call the shots, you make the picks, and our system tracks the transparency and performance in real-time.
- Auto Pilot Mode: Let the AI do the heavy lifting. Our proprietary algorithms analyze millions of data points to generate high-confidence projections.
Whether you want to compete head-to-head against human cappers or leverage the “Maverick Advantage,” the AIPL is the “Wall Street meets Vegas” solution for the modern era.
The Raymond Report Top 5 Betting Options (April 29, 2026)
Every day, Ron identifies the top value spots based on the Raymond Report metrics. Here are the five areas where the data is screaming the loudest today:
- MLB Moneyline Value: A specific underdog in the NL Central is showing a +145 value with a 62% C.O.W. (Chance of Winning).
- NBA Total: An Over/Under that has hit 80% of the time in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these two playoff foes.
- NHL Side: A home favorite with a PVI SOS that suggests the line is 20 cents too low.
- Kentucky Derby Longshot: #10 Wonder Dean (25-1). The UAE Derby winner’s early arrival and quarantine exit suggest a horse that is perfectly acclimated.
- AIPL Consensus Play: The “Auto Pilot” model has flagged a high-confidence play in the late-night MLB slate.
Get the “Top Play” Winner
Ron didn’t just talk about the games; he gave out a Top Play winner for tonight’s action. This is the pick that Ron puts his own stamp on: the one with the highest historical and situational probability of hitting.
We aren’t going to give it away here. To get Ron’s official picks for MLB, the NBA, and the NHL, including the “Top Play” winner, you need to head over to the YouTube channel and watch the full breakdown.
WATCH NOW: The Raymond Report Podcast Link
Final Word from Ron Raymond
“The market doesn’t care about your feelings, it only cares about the numbers. If you aren’t using a framework, you’re just guessing. We don’t guess at ATS Stats: we project.”
The Kentucky Derby is the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports,” but the preparation takes weeks of clinical analysis. Stay tuned to the Raymond Report as we get closer to Saturday’s post time. We’ll be updating the C.O.W. metrics as the track conditions and late money start to move the needles.
If you’re ready to stop betting and start investing, sign up for our Premium Picks today. You get the full suite of tools: the Raymond Report, Computer Picks, ATS Trends, and the AIPL leaderboard.
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