DATE: Friday, May 1, 2026
LOCATION: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
REPORT TYPE: Kentucky Derby Final Analysis (Day 5)
HANDICAPPER: Ron Raymond
The wait is almost over. Tomorrow, the “Run for the Roses” takes center stage, but today we finalize the data, lock in the value, and execute the plan. After four days of deep-diving into the metrics, looking at the Performance Value Index (PVI), and monitoring track conditions, we’ve arrived at the final Raymond Report assessment for the 152nd Kentucky Derby.
This isn’t about picking the horse with the prettiest name. This is about professional sports betting analytics. We’re looking for the intersection of probability and price.
THE BIG PICK: COMMANDMENT (#6)
MORNING LINE ODDS: 6/1
CURRENT PRICE (LIVE): 6/1
SITUATIONAL STATUS: BULLISH (Grade: A)
THE ANALYSIS:
Commandment (#6) has checked every box in the Raymond Report database. When we look at horse racing stats, we aren’t just looking at who crossed the wire first in their last race. We are looking at the Cycle. Commandment is entering the peak phase of his performance cycle.
- Training Report: Clocked a bullet work earlier this week. Effortless moving. Lung capacity and recovery times are at elite levels.
- Post Position: The #6 hole is a sweet spot. It provides enough room to avoid the early rail squeeze while staying close enough to the paint to save ground around the first turn.
- Value Profile: At 6/1, the market is giving us a gift. Our internal “True Odds” calculation at ATS Stats has this horse priced at 4/1. When you can get 6/1 on a 4/1 probability, you take it every single time.
THE RAYMOND REPORT: 5 FUNDAMENTALS OF PROFITABLE BETTING
To win at the track: or in the MLB, NBA, and NHL: you need a system. I don’t deviate from the 5 Fundamentals. Here is how they apply to the Derby tomorrow.
1. VALUE (FINDING THE RIGHT PRICE)
In sports betting, you don’t bet the horse; you bet the price. If the favorite is 2/1 but only has a 20% chance of winning, that’s a bad bet. Commandment at 6/1 offers the “Value Overlay” we look for. We are looking for horses that the public is overlooking because they are enamored with the “Post-Time Favorite” narrative.
2. PERCENTAGE PLAY (C.O.W. – CHANCE OF WINNING)
At ATS Stats, we calculate the Chance of Winning (C.O.W.) for every entrant. The C.O.W. factor for Commandment is currently sitting at 18.5% in a 20-horse field. In a race with this much variance, an 18.5% C.O.W. against 6/1 odds (14.3% implied probability) gives us a positive expected value (+EV) of over 4%.
3. PERFORMANCE CYCLES (FORM OVER FAME)
Horses are athletes. They peak and they crater. Commandment’s last three speed figures show a steady upward trajectory: 94, 98, 102. He is coming into this race “fresh but sharp.” We avoid horses that have already “popped” a 110 speed figure three weeks ago; they usually regress in the high-pressure environment of Churchill Downs.
4. PLAYER (HORSE/JOCKEY) AVAILABILITY & READINESS
Health is everything. We monitor the “Ship-in” dates and how the horse handles the Louisville humidity. Commandment’s jockey has a high win percentage in Grade 1 stakes over the last 24 months. The availability of a top-tier navigator who understands how to handle 19 other horses is the “X-Factor” in the Kentucky Derby.
5. MONEY MANAGEMENT (STICK TO THE BANKROLL)
This is the most important fundamental. Whether you are betting the Derby or using our MLB picks, you must stick to the unit size. Don’t “chase” a bad afternoon of racing by dumping your bankroll on the Derby. We recommend a 2-unit play on the #6 Commandment to Win, and a 1-unit Box Exacta featuring the #6, #18, and #7.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PICKS LEAGUE (AIPL): THE NEW FRONTIER
If you want to move beyond traditional handicapping, it’s time to look at the Artificial Intelligence Picks League (AIPL). This isn’t just a leaderboard; it’s a franchise opportunity.
Think of AIPL as “Wall Street meets Vegas.” You can actually own an AIPL franchise. You have two modes:
- Manual Mode: You make the picks, and our AI tracks your transparency, performance, and real-time ROI.
- Auto Pilot Mode: Let our high-frequency AI algorithms make the picks for you.
The AIPL is built on total transparency. Every pick is logged. No “deleted” losses. Just raw data and performance. If you are looking for a hybrid competition where human intuition meets AI precision, visit the AIPL Picks League and see how our top franchises are performing heading into the summer months.
DERBY FIELD COMPARISON: DATA DASHBOARD
Below is the breakdown of the top contenders based on the Raymond Report metrics.
| Horse Name | Number | PVI Rank | C.O.W. (%) | Value Grade | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commandment | #6 | 1st | 18.5% | A+ | BULLISH |
| Renegade | #1 | 4th | 12.1% | C | NEUTRAL |
| Further Ado | #18 | 2nd | 15.3% | B | BULLISH |
| Danon Bourbon | #7 | 7th | 9.8% | B+ | LIVE LONGSHOT |
| So Happy | #8 | 12th | 6.5% | D | BEARISH |
Notes:
- Renegade (#1): Drawing the rail in a 20-horse field is historically a nightmare. SU (Straight Up) win rate from the #1 hole is significantly lower than the field average.
- Danon Bourbon (#7): The “Japan factor.” Unbeaten in 3 starts. High variance but the PVI suggests he belongs in your exotic tickets.
RAYMOND REPORT: TOP 5 BETTING OPTIONS (MAY 1, 2026)
While the Derby is the main event, the Raymond Report covers the full spectrum of sports betting stats. Here are the top 5 high-confidence options for today’s card across all markets:
- KENTUCKY DERBY (HORSE): #6 Commandment (6/1 ML) – Best Bet.
- MLB (SIDE): NY Yankees ML (-145) vs. Boston – High PVI support. See MLB Stats.
- NHL (TOTAL): Edmonton/Vegas OVER 6.5 (-110) – Scoring Avg Trend. See NHL Stats.
- NBA (SIDE): Denver Nuggets ML (-130) – 70% Club Member.
- KENTUCKY OAKS (HORSE): #3 Serenity (4/1) – Strong Performance Cycle.
ANALYTICAL DEEP DIVE: WHY THE #6?
When we utilize the ATS Matrix and the L100 Games database (applying the logic to horse racing), we see that “tactical speed” is the winning profile for Churchill Downs. Commandment isn’t a “deep closer” who needs 19 horses to move out of his way. He is a “stalker.”
- Coming off 21 days rest.
- After a Grade 1 Prep win.
- Jockey/Trainer win rate (365 days): 22%.
The numbers don’t lie. Most bettors get caught up in the “24-hour rule” of recency bias. They saw a horse win by 10 lengths in Florida and think it translates to the deep dirt of Kentucky. We look at the SOS (Strength of Schedule) and the PVI SOS to see who actually ran against elite competition. Commandment has the highest PVI SOS in the field.
CLOSING THOUGHTS
The Derby is a marathon of information. From the Free/Premium Tipsheets to the complex AI projections in the AIPL, the goal remains the same: profitable sports betting through discipline and data.
Don’t gamble. Invest. Use the 5 Fundamentals, trust the Performance Value Index, and keep your bankroll managed. We will see you at the window.
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