ALDS Game 5 – Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Report (Friday, Oct 10, 2025)

It all comes down to this — Game 5 in Seattle. The winner moves on to the ALCS, the loser goes golfing. Both clubs have traded punches all series, but tonight we get an ace-on-ace showdown: Tarik Skubal vs George Kirby — two control artists, one elimination game.

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Detroit Tigers (91-78) @ Seattle Mariners (92-74)

Line: DET -1.5 (-138) SEA +1.5 (+113) Total: 6
Pitchers: Tarik Skubal (L) 13-6 2.21 ERA vs George Kirby (R) 10-8 4.21 ERA

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Market Snapshot

• Forecast (Raymond Report Model): DET 4.64 – SEA 2.41 (O/U 7.05)
• C.O.W.: Detroit 71.43% | Seattle 25%
• C.O.G.O.: 39% → leans Under 6
• Cycle/Form: Detroit Neutral (10D) | Seattle Bearish (2D)
• SOS (last 7 games): SEA 69% vs DET 35% — Mariners have faced stiffer pitching.
• Line Movement: Opened DET -120, now -138 → sharp money leaning Tigers.

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Situational Edges

Category	Detroit	Seattle	Edge
Last 10 SU	5-5	5-5	Even
Last 10 O/U	3-6-1 (Unders)	4-5-1 (Unders)	Under trend
Off Win/Loss Split	DET After Win 21-24	SEA After Loss 20-13	SEA bounce-back potential
Pitcher Form (L7 starts)	Skubal 5-2, 3.43 ERA	Kirby 4-3, 3.29 ERA	Even – Slight DET edge
Home/Away	DET 44-42 road	SEA 52-31 home	SEA comfort zone
Night Games	DET 30-33	SEA 52-28	SEA thrives under the lights

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Raymond Report Angle

Skubal’s been nails — 15-5 SU last 20 team starts, and the Tigers have covered seven of their last ten as a short favorite. Seattle, meanwhile, has lost five of their past seven when facing left-handed pitching, and their offense has gone quiet (3.1 runs avg last 7).

Kirby will keep them close early, but his 4.84 ERA at home vs. LHP-heavy lineups is a red flag. Detroit’s lineup is making better contact (team AVG .274 last 5 games) and the bullpen is rested.

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Prediction

• Score Projection: Detroit 4 – Seattle 2
• Lean: Tigers -138 (ML)
• Run Line: Detroit -1.5 (+125 value if you’re bold)**
• Total Lean: Under 6 (Playoff pressure + ace tempo = low variance)

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🧾 Raymond Report Key Numbers

• Detroit After Win: 21-24 SU, but 9-2 with 1 day off (ideal prep spot).
• Seattle After Loss: 20-13 SU at home — good bounce-back record, but only .216 AVG vs LHP this month.
• Detroit vs AL West: 8-10 SU road team record but 2.95 ERA — deceptively strong.
• Seattle vs AL Central: 12-6 SU team record — good matchups historically, but Detroit has momentum.

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💰 Raymond Report Playoff Value Play

👉 Detroit Tigers -138 ML & Under 6
(Pitching + momentum edge + Under cycle = profitable combo)

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📊 Takeaway:
Game 5’s are built on nerves, not names. Detroit’s bullpen and left-handed ace give them the edge. Seattle’s crowd will be loud, but numbers don’t yell — they whisper “Under.”

🎯 Final Call: Detroit 4 – Seattle 2 (Under 6 Cashes)

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