Saturday NCAAF: Army Black Knights (47) @ Navy Midshipmen (-6)

Army
Army 
O/U :47

20.5

Vs.

Date: 2016-12-10
Time: 15:00:00

Generated from 2 Previous Games

Navy
Navy
SIDE :6

25 = 45.5

Today’s Pick: Army Black Knights +6

Oh come on. This-is-too-easy…

Sources have the Navy Midshipmen power-capped as a -16 favorite, yet Vegas has them chalked at -6. Is this a deal? Is this a steal? Pfffft HARDLY. No, this is not a deal. No, this is not a steal.

The Navy has done very well for themselves up to this point, besides having been plagued with all sorts of issues through the season.

Their season began in a promising way when then QB, Tago Smith, threw a 100% pass completion, for 45 yards, 1 for 1, before he suffered a season ending knee injury.

Since then, Navy have scored a 9-3 ML record for themselves at the hands and the talents of QB Will Worth. Right up until last week, the Navy felt great about their chances to take this to the next level, but then the unthinkable happened and the Midshipmen lost their #2 star QB to a foot injury. Will Worth will be out for the season, and now their 3rd string QB will have another chance to make good against the Army Black Knights.

And that’s the rub.

Last week, the Midshipmen were capped at -1.5 to win against Temple and they dropped the ball, literally.

With 3 Turnovers, and only scoring a season low of 10 points, QB Zach Abey’s 1st appearance turned out to be synonymous with the bottom following out of the same Navy engine that had been proficient up to that point.

  • Navy has allowed no less than 27 points in any of their games.
  • Navy has routinely allowed +30 points in their games
  • Navy has allowed +40 points in 25% of their outings this season
  • Navy has scored over 40 points in well over half of their games.

No. The Navy’s defense is simply NOT up to the task. With numbers like these, do we even have to get into micromanaging their yard prevention? Not really, but let’s look at the yards production/prevention matchup anyway:

Offense:

  • Army averages 408 yards per game. 328 on the ground. 79 in the air.
  • Navy averages 456 yards per game. 327 on the ground. 128 in the air.

Defense:

  • Army averages 290 yards against per game. 125 on the ground. 164 in the air.
  • Navy averages 435 yards against per game. 176 on the ground. 259 in the air.

The offensive advantage for Navy, (under the #2 starting QB), is a minor discrepancy.

The defensive advantage for Army is, frankly, mind-blowing.

And it’s on this point that we find a completely misplaced line. We have no idea how a -6 evaluation has earned Navy 66% of the action. This is completely incredibly. We were convinced that with Navy being chalked as -6, that we’d see at least 70% of the action on the Army. We thought that we were staring a trapline in the face. We were not.

For whatever reason, the public is all over Navy and their inferior QB and their completely inferior defense.

So all that we can really deduce here is that the Vegas oddsmakers knew that there would be a severe public bias towards the Navy, and we’re betting that Vegas linemakers must be cashing in on the Army +6 wager along with the rest of us. At least, that’s what the copious amounts of sharp steam with the Black Knights would suggest.

The amount of instances where we find what looks like a clear “trapline” where the baitline only has 35% of the action? No more than 2-3 times in a year across all sports. This is what makes this game so unique and special to those of us that earn money betting sports. This game is like going grocery shopping and finding everything at 75% off and with everything well within the expiry date.

  • Navy’s entire formula is structured around their offense which has been gutted with the loss of Will Worth.
  • Zach Abey throwing 2 INT and 0 TDs, across 13 attempts, and putting only 10 points on the board last game, won’t get it done.
  • Navy’s defense, their only hope, is completely outmatched by a well dominant Army D squad.
  • 66% of the population has driven Navy to a -6 favorite, giving Army +6 remarkable value.
  • As expected, we’ve seen all kinds of sharp steam with Army, and that’s exactly what we’d expect.
  • Navy has typically bested the Army in this spot, and this will be Army’s chance at some get back. Psychologiacally, the Knights are ready to roll over the Midshipmen.

Injuries are completely lobsided:

Army has nothing significant in the last month, but Navy has been completely plagued with injury.

  • Army’s DB Marcus Hyatt is out with a knee issue in early November.
  • Army’s DB Steven Johnson is out with a knee issue in early November.
  • Navy’s QB Will Worth is out with a foot issue.
  • Navy’s SB Darryl Bonner is doubtful.
  • Navy’s SB Toneo Gulley is out with a foot issue.
  • Navy’s SB Dishan Romine injured last game with an undisclosed injury and is ? for this week.
  • Navy’s SB Joshua Walker is ? with a shoulder injury.
  • Navy’s CB Elijah Merchant is ? with a concussion.
  • Navy’s LB Josiah Powell is ? with a leg issue.
  • Navy’s S Kyle Battle is ? with a knee issue.
  • Navy’s WR Craig Scott is ? with an undisclosed issue.

So looking at this injury list, there is a glaring question that needs to be answered. “Who will run the ball for Navy?!!?” Army already has the superior defense, and now they will have their targets all lined up with the new and struggling QB, as well as whatever 2nd/3rd line slotbacks/runningbacks that Navy produces.

Yes. The Navy Midshipmen have had somewhat of a tougher schedule. But there is “slightly behind” and then there is “completely losing.” We anticipate plenty of miscommunication in the Navy offensive backfield and we expect them to abandon what doesn’t work. This will pigeon-hole them into mitigated and telegraphed offensive patterns which will be further crushed. At that point, halfway through the 2nd Q, Navy will panic and simply give up. Navy at -6, for the full game, is completely out of the question.

So due to all these presents, we are officially renaming this as, “The Santa Bowl.”

santa