Categories: MLB

ATS STATS MLB Round Up – Monday, Sept 8, 2025

Royals at Guardians (-121, O/U 8)

  • Days Rest: Both on zero rest.
  • Royals drop one in Minnesota but send Ryan Bergert to the hill (C.O.W 52%). Offense has cooled (2-8 O/U last 10).
  • Guardians stay hot with 3 straight wins and home field. Slade Cecconi gets the ball, but bullpen fatigue could be an issue.
  • Edge: Guardians lean, but total screams Over with both pens stretched.

Nationals at Marlins (-132, O/U 8)

  • Nats ride a mini 2-game streak, but Cade Cavalli’s inconsistency looms.
  • Marlins trot out Janson Junk after stealing one from Philly — his 57% C.O.W suggests value.
  • Edge: Miami chalk looks justified, though Nationals have quietly cashed dogs.

Mets (-126) at Phillies (O/U 9)

  • Mets in a funk (2 straight losses), Nolan McLean trying to steady them.
  • Phillies counter with Aaron Nola at Citizens Bank, where they’ve been tough.
  • Both teams at full rest, both leaning Under lately.
  • Edge: Phils live dog at home, Nola vs young McLean a mismatch.

Cubs (-126) at Braves (O/U 8.5)

  • Cubs’ offense sputtered vs Nats, but Shota Imanaga’s 49% C.O.W steadies the ship.
  • Braves just got lit up 18-2 vs Seattle — pitching staff gassed. Bryce Elder needs to stop the bleeding.
  • Edge: Cubs bounce-back spot, Braves on tilt.

Brewers (-126) at Rangers (O/U 8)

  • Brewers red-hot (3 wins straight) behind Jose Quintana.
  • Rangers send Jacob Latz, backed by a strong 7-3 last 10 run.
  • Edge: Toss-up — Brewers’ momentum vs Rangers’ home field. Could be a sneaky Under 8.

Twins at Angels (-127, O/U 9)

  • Twins win behind Lorenzen yesterday, but Simeon Woods-Richardson hasn’t been reliable.
  • Angels send Caden Dana — team just won vs A’s and looking sharper.
  • Edge: Angels slight lean at home, Twins’ bats not traveling well.

Reds at Padres (-144, O/U 7.5)

  • Reds fighting for .500, Nick Lodolo (42% C.O.W) draws Yu Darvish (56%).
  • Padres off a huge 8-1 win vs Rockies.
  • Edge: Padres chalk holds, especially at Petco.

Cardinals at Mariners (-231, O/U 7.5)

  • Cards even up record at 72-72, Mikolas on the bump.
  • Seattle just pounded ATL 18-2 with Luis Castillo — now Bryan Woo takes the ball.
  • Edge: Mariners big chalk, too pricey to back straight.

D-Backs at Giants (-186, O/U 7.5)

  • Zona’s Nabil Crismatt gets Logan Webb — mismatch on paper.
  • Giants at home off 2 SU losses, should bounce back behind Webb.
  • Edge: Giants bounce-back chalk.

Red Sox (-181) at A’s (O/U 8.5)

  • Sox heating up, Garrett Crochet on the mound, bullpen steady.
  • A’s counter with Luis Morales — not enough juice.
  • Edge: Boston chalk + Over 8.5.

Rockies at Dodgers (-302, O/U 9)

  • Rockies sink deeper (40-102), Chase Dollander tries to hold down LAD.
  • Dodgers get Tyler Glasnow and home field after handling O’s.
  • Edge: Dodgers smash spot. Rockies can’t hang with this lineup.

📊 Takeaways

  • Chalk spots worth watching: Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants.
  • Best dog shots: Phillies with Nola, Nationals sneaky live vs Miami.
  • Totals: Royals/Guardians Over, Brewers/Rangers Under, Red Sox/A’s Over.

 

Ron Raymond

Ron Raymond is a well-known sports handicapper who runs ATS Stats and the Raymond REPORT. He has over 21 years of experience in the industry and provides expert analysis and predictions for various sports, including football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.

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