Happy Labor Day! Below is your numbers-first preview card for every matchup on today’s slate. Each capsule blends your projections with C.O.W. (Chance of Winning), Streaks, VI (Value Index), and C.O.G.O. (Chance of Game to go Over).

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Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (1:05 ET)

Line/Total: WSH -123, O/U 9
Proj: MIA 3.97 • WSH 4.91 (8.88)
Pitching/C.O.W.: McSweeney 43.15% vs Andrew Alvarez 58.33%
Form: MIA W2 (7–3 O/U L10); WSH L8 (tough SOS last week)
Signals: VI MIA +137.08 (dog value), VI WSH -153.6 • C.O.G.O 49%
Lean: Side to WSH (C.O.W. + skid-buster spot), tiny Over 9 only if you trust the projection > closing total.

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New York Mets at Detroit Tigers (1:10 ET)

Line/Total: NYM -121, O/U 9
Proj: NYM 4.66 • DET 4.24 (8.90)
Pitching/C.O.W.: Manaea 49.52% vs Morton 46.92%
Form: NYM 6–4 L10 but off two losses; DET W1, 4 straight Unders
Signals: VI NYM -122 • C.O.G.O 57%
Lean: NYM -121; totals model nudges Over 9 (C.O.G.O support).

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Toronto Blue Jays at Cincinnati Reds (1:10 ET)

Line/Total: CIN -126, O/U 8.5
Proj: TOR 4.25 • CIN 4.52 (8.77)
Pitching/C.O.W.: Bassitt 47.26% vs Hunter Greene 55.80%
Form: CIN just 2–8 L10, but Greene raises floor; TOR steady 5–5
Signals: VI CIN -129.25 (bearish), C.O.G.O 43%
Lean: CIN -126 (pitcher edge), but the VI caution says keep it small. Under 8.5 leans via C.O.G.O and cooler park.

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Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox (1:35 ET)

Line/Total: BOS -149, O/U 8.5
Proj: CLE 4.24 • BOS 4.84 (9.08)
Pitching/C.O.W.: Parker Messick 41.69% vs Brayan Bello 59.32%
Form: BOS 7–3 L10; CLE 4–6 L10
Signals: VI BOS -138.55 • C.O.G.O 60%
Lean: BOS -149; Over 8.5/9 has support (model + C.O.G.O.).

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Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (2:10 ET)

Line/Total: HOU -150, O/U 8.5
Proj: LAA 4.53 • HOU 4.82 (9.35)
Pitching/C.O.W.: Kikuchi 46.50% vs Luis Garcia 53.43%
Form: LAA W2 but 3–7 O/U L10; HOU 7 straight Unders trend recently
Signals: VI HOU -179 • C.O.G.O 75%
Lean: HOU -150. Despite recent Under streaks, Over 8.5/9 is live (projection 9.35 + very high C.O.G.O.).

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Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (2:10 ET)

Line/Total: MIN -194, O/U 9
Proj: CWS 3.96 • MIN 5.02 (8.98)
Pitching/C.O.W.: Bryse Wilson 38.17% vs Bailey Ober 62.89%
Form: MIN 9–1 to Over L10 but only 4–6 SU; CWS 4–6 L10
Signals: VI MIN -164 • C.O.G.O 43%
Lean: MIN -1.5 (safer price than ML). Total sits right on model—no play unless 8.5 reappears.

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Oakland Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals (2:15 ET)

Line/Total: STL -144, O/U 8
Proj: OAK 3.75 • STL 4.15 (7.90)
Pitching/C.O.W.: Luis Morales 45.73% vs Sonny Gray 61.28%
Form: OAK L3; STL 5–5 L10
Signals: VI STL -149.75 • C.O.G.O 40%
Lean: STL -144 and Under 8 lean (projection + low C.O.G.O.).

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Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs (4:05 ET)

Line/Total: CHC -122, O/U 7.5
Proj: ATL 4.31 • CHC 3.75 (8.06)
Pitching/C.O.W.: Spencer Strider 51.45% vs Colin Rea 46.54%
Form: ATL 3 straight Unders; CHC 5–5 L10
Signals: Market favors CHC, but model/strikeouts back ATL; C.O.G.O 60%
Lean: ATL + money (fade the small favorite). With proj 8.06, Over 7.5 at even money or better is reasonable.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers (4:10 ET)

Line/Total: MIL -158, O/U 9
Proj: PHI 4.22 • MIL 4.74 (8.96)
Pitching/C.O.W.: Taijuan Walker 41.69% vs Jacob Misiorowski 56.97%
Form: MIL 85–53; PHI 79–58; Brewers 7–3 O/U L10
Signals: VI MIL -132 • C.O.G.O 60%
Lean: MIL -158 (or -1 at a reduced price). Small lean Over 9 if totals market dips to 8.5.

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San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (4:10 ET)

Line/Total: SF -137, O/U 11.5
Proj: SF 6.06 • COL 5.42 (11.48)
Pitching/C.O.W.: Kai-Wei Teng 46.62% vs Chase Dollander 49.54%
Form: SF 7–3 L10; COL 2–8 L10
Signals: VI SF -147.32 • C.O.G.O 36%
Lean: SF -137 (form + lineup projection). Total is already sky-high—projection ≈ posted number; pass the total unless wind/weather boosts run-expectation.

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Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres (6:40 ET)

Line/Total: SD -157, O/U 7.5
Proj: BAL 3.66 • SD 4.27 (7.93)
Pitching/C.O.W.: Kyle Bradish 39.43% vs Dylan Cease 61.28%
Form: O’s 2–8 L10; SD 7–3 O/U L10
Signals: VI SD -168.94 • C.O.G.O 28%
Lean: SD -157 with Under 7.5/8 lean (low C.O.G.O. + Petco).

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Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays (7:35 ET)

Line/Total: TB -112, O/U 8.5–9
Proj: SEA 4.70 • TB 4.30 (9.00)
Pitching/C.O.W.: Luis Castillo 49.12% vs Shane Baz 48.59%
Form: Both 5–5 L10; TB on a 3-game SU win run
Signals: VI SEA -141.05 (value toward M’s) • C.O.G.O 59%
Lean: SEA + money (model edge + VI). Totals lean Over 8.5 if that number shows.

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Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10 ET)

Line/Total: ARI -157, O/U 9
Proj: TEX 4.27 • ARI 5.58 (9.85)
Pitching/C.O.W.: Patrick Corbin 26.67% vs Kyle Nelson 55.10%
Form: ARI W5, 8–2 L10; TEX 71–67 and volatile
Signals: VI ARI -135.64 • C.O.G.O 60%
Lean: ARI -157 (ride the form). Over 9 leans with a model near 10 and supportive C.O.G.O.

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Best Bets (by the numbers)

1. Red Sox -149 vs Guardians — Bello edge, projection + form; C.O.G.O supports runs if you want Over exposure.
2. Astros -150 vs Angels — Garcia/C.O.W. + VI; consider Over 8.5/9 with elevated C.O.G.O.
3. Padres -157 vs Orioles — Cease advantage vs struggling O’s; pair with Under 7.5/8 for correlated angle.
4. Giants -137 at Rockies — Better current form and lineup projection even at Coors.
5. Diamondbacks -157 vs Rangers — Five-game win streak, projection 5.58; Over 9 secondary lean.

Live Dogs / Small Plus-Money Sprinkles

• Braves at Cubs — Model says ATL; Strider path to dominance.
• Brewers/Phillies Over 9 (shop 8.5) — High C.O.G.O and recent MIL totals trend.
• Mets/Tigers Over 9 — Model + C.O.G.O 57% if weather/ump not suppressing.