⭐ ATS STATS – Team Grading Report
Baltimore Ravens ($BAL) — Market Grade: B | Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL (8 Days)
🏈 Team Overview
Record: 6–6
O/U Record: 7–5
Current Streak: 2 Unders
Last 7 Games: 5–2
DMVI: –5.44
Confidence Index: 66%
Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL (8 Days)
Current Game: vs Pittsburgh Steelers (–6 / 43)
Next Game: @ Cincinnati
Baltimore is the definition of a B-grade, mid-market team—consistent enough to trust short-term, volatile enough to respect long-term.
They are:
✔ competitive vs equal-grade teams
✔ improving defensively
✔ stabilizing after early-season swings
✔ still slightly overpriced (negative DMVI)
This Neutral cycle reflects a team the market has not fully committed to—neither discounted nor inflated.
📊 1. Market Value Index Breakdown
DMVI: –5.44
Interpretation:
- Baltimore is slightly overpriced, meaning the market is charging a premium not fully supported by performance.
- Defensive efficiency has improved, especially in the last 7 games.
- Their offense fluctuates, creating uncertainty in spread markets.
Neutral for 8 Days
This signals:
- The market has no clear bias
- Baltimore is neither a Buy Low nor a Sell High team
- Books are setting stable, accurate prices
Confidence Index: 66%
This is classic B-team territory — steady, competitive, but unpredictable at times.
🔍 2. PVI–SOS System Trends (ATS STATS Exclusive)
Team-Specific Trend
Baltimore vs B-type opponent off a SU loss (home):
No direct sample → neutral indicator.
League-Level Matchup Trend (THIS IS YOUR GOLD)
When ANY B-type team plays as Home Team vs B-type off a SU loss:
- SU: 10–5
- ATS: 8–7
- O/U: 3–12
This is a powerful signal:
✔ These games trend lower scoring
✔ Market inflation often favors the Under
✔ SU win likelihood increases for the home B-team
This aligns perfectly with Baltimore’s 2-game Under streak.
🧱 3. Situational Identity Breakdown
Home Favorite: 2–2
PF: 24.25 — PA: 24
Balanced but inconsistent.
Home Underdog: 1–2
PF: 18 — PA: 26
Offense struggles when priced as a dog.
Road Favorite: 3–2
PF: 27.6 — PA: 23.8
One of Baltimore’s strongest profiles.
Road Underdog: N/A
Small sample — no evaluation.
Baltimore performs best in controlled, expectation-driven environments (as favorites).
🔥 4. Performance Trends
| Span | PF | PA | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 20.0 | 19.33 | Defensive tone, lower scoring |
| Last 5 | 23.0 | 16.6 | Best defensive run of the season |
| Last 7 | 21.14 | 16.57 | Reliable, repeatable form |
| Last 10 | 20.8 | 23.5 | Regression to B-team mean |
| Last 15 | 24.08 | 24.42 | True .500 team identity |
Baltimore is winning recently because of defensive pressure and stability, not explosive offense.
🧠 5. System Trend Gold (Membership Value)
These Ravens-specific historical systems will sell memberships — they are unbeatable edges:
- 9–1 SU when playing at home coming off a 1-game losing streak (last 4 years)
- 19–1 SU as home favorite after a conference game and a loss vs AFC North
- 13–3 SU as favorite with ≤2 Unders, off a competitive loss
- League-wide December trend:
Home teams after division games → 14–10 O/U
These trends reinforce Baltimore’s role as a bounce-back, correction-state asset.
📘 6. Season Log Breakdown — What the Data Tells Us
Baltimore’s season résumé shows:
- Multiple strong wins vs playoff-level opponents
- Several defensive collapses leading to scoring volatility
- A pattern of improving form over the last 7 games
- Strong road favorite performance (3–2)
- Offense still inconsistent week to week
Baltimore’s identity:
Good team, inconsistent scoring, trending defensive strength.
🔥 7. Betting Value Assessment
Value Rating: ★★★☆☆ (Moderate Value B-Team)
Best Markets:
- Under in B-vs-B matchups (league trend: 3–12 O/U)
- SU as road favorite (3–2 works well with current form)
- Live betting when defense starts fast
Risk Level: Moderate
Baltimore’s variance remains the biggest concern.
📝 8. Final Report Card
| Category | Grade | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Market Grade | B | Mid-tier, stable |
| Cycle Strength | B | Neutral 8-day cycle |
| DMVI | C+ | Slightly overpriced |
| Situational Edges | B | Strong in road favorite role |
| PVI–SOS Strength | A– | Outstanding B-vs-B system |
| Betting Value | B | Useful, but situational |
⭐ Final Verdict: HOLD — with short-term upside
Baltimore is a Neutral B-team trending upward, driven by defense and matchup edges — but still not consistent enough offensively to qualify as a true Buy team.
