⭐ ATS STATS – Team Grading Report

Baltimore Ravens ($BAL) — Market Grade: B | Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL (8 Days)

🏈 Team Overview

Record: 6–6
O/U Record: 7–5
Current Streak: 2 Unders
Last 7 Games: 5–2
DMVI: –5.44
Confidence Index: 66%
Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL (8 Days)
Current Game: vs Pittsburgh Steelers (–6 / 43)
Next Game: @ Cincinnati

Baltimore is the definition of a B-grade, mid-market team—consistent enough to trust short-term, volatile enough to respect long-term.

They are:
✔ competitive vs equal-grade teams
✔ improving defensively
✔ stabilizing after early-season swings
✔ still slightly overpriced (negative DMVI)

This Neutral cycle reflects a team the market has not fully committed to—neither discounted nor inflated.

📊 1. Market Value Index Breakdown

DMVI: –5.44

Interpretation:

• Baltimore is slightly overpriced, meaning the market is charging a premium not fully supported by performance.
• Defensive efficiency has improved, especially in the last 7 games.
• Their offense fluctuates, creating uncertainty in spread markets.

Neutral for 8 Days
This signals:

• The market has no clear bias
• Baltimore is neither a Buy Low nor a Sell High team
• Books are setting stable, accurate prices

Confidence Index: 66%
This is classic B-team territory — steady, competitive, but unpredictable at times.

🔍 2. PVI–SOS System Trends (ATS STATS Exclusive)

Team-Specific Trend

Baltimore vs B-type opponent off a SU loss (home):
No direct sample → neutral indicator.

League-Level Matchup Trend (THIS IS YOUR GOLD)

When ANY B-type team plays as Home Team vs B-type off a SU loss:

• SU: 10–5
• ATS: 8–7
• O/U: 3–12

This is a powerful signal:

✔ These games trend lower scoring
✔ Market inflation often favors the Under
✔ SU win likelihood increases for the home B-team

This aligns perfectly with Baltimore’s 2-game Under streak.

🧱 3. Situational Identity Breakdown

Home Favorite: 2–2

PF: 24.25 — PA: 24
Balanced but inconsistent.

Home Underdog: 1–2

PF: 18 — PA: 26
Offense struggles when priced as a dog.

Road Favorite: 3–2

PF: 27.6 — PA: 23.8
One of Baltimore’s strongest profiles.

Road Underdog: N/A

Small sample — no evaluation.

Baltimore performs best in controlled, expectation-driven environments (as favorites).

🔥 4. Performance Trends

Baltimore is winning recently because of defensive pressure and stability, not explosive offense.

🧠 5. System Trend Gold (Membership Value)

These Ravens-specific historical systems will sell memberships — they are unbeatable edges:

• 9–1 SU when playing at home coming off a 1-game losing streak (last 4 years)
• 19–1 SU as home favorite after a conference game and a loss vs AFC North
• 13–3 SU as favorite with ≤2 Unders, off a competitive loss
• League-wide December trend:
  Home teams after division games → 14–10 O/U

These trends reinforce Baltimore’s role as a bounce-back, correction-state asset.

📘 6. Season Log Breakdown — What the Data Tells Us

Baltimore’s season résumé shows:

• Multiple strong wins vs playoff-level opponents
• Several defensive collapses leading to scoring volatility
• A pattern of improving form over the last 7 games
• Strong road favorite performance (3–2)
• Offense still inconsistent week to week

Baltimore’s identity:
Good team, inconsistent scoring, trending defensive strength.

🔥 7. Betting Value Assessment

Value Rating: ★★★☆☆ (Moderate Value B-Team)

Best Markets:

• Under in B-vs-B matchups (league trend: 3–12 O/U)
• SU as road favorite (3–2 works well with current form)
• Live betting when defense starts fast

Risk Level: Moderate

Baltimore’s variance remains the biggest concern.

📝 8. Final Report Card

⭐ Final Verdict: HOLD — with short-term upside

Baltimore is a Neutral B-team trending upward, driven by defense and matchup edges — but still not consistent enough offensively to qualify as a true Buy team.