⭐ ATS STATS – Team Grading Report
Denver Broncos ($DEN) — Market Grade: A | Market Sentiment: BULLISH (53 Days)
🏈 Team Overview
- Record: 10–2
- O/U Record: 4–8
- Current SU Streak: 9 Wins
- Last 7 Games: 7–0
- DMVI: –4 (Strong outperformer)
- Confidence Index: 100%
- Market Sentiment: BULLISH (53 Days)
- Current Game: vs Las Vegas Raiders (–9 / 40)
- Next Game: vs Green Bay
The Broncos are one of the NFL’s most profitable teams on a market efficiency level. They’re not flashy… they’re precision-built. Where New England dominates with explosive scoring stability, Denver wins through tight defensive anchors, timely scoring, and market underpricing.
This is a team the books haven’t fully caught up to — and their DMVI proves it.
📊 1. Market Value Index Breakdown
DMVI: –4
This is a confirmed “sweet spot” range:
Teams between –3 and –7 on DMVI historically produce the best ATS value.
The market expects wins from Denver — but it undervalues HOW they win. This is why their streak remains profitable.
Cycle Status: 53-Day Bullish Run
A nearly two-month Bullish period indicates:
✔ Consistent market beating
✔ High confidence
✔ Strong adaptability home & away
✔ A major advantage vs weak opponents
Last 7 Games: 7–0
Perfect condition. No signs of regression.
🔍 2. PVI–SOS System Trends (ATS STATS Exclusive)
This is your industry-killer.
Team-Specific Trend
When Denver played as Road Team vs C-Type Opponent Coming Off a SU Win (Last 10):
- SU: 0–0
- ATS: 0–0
- O/U: 0–0
(No qualifying recent sample — neutral influence)
League-Level System Trend (This Season)
When ANY A-Type Team played as Road Team vs C-Type Team Coming Off a SU Win:
- SU: 18–4
- ATS: 13–9
- O/U: 9–12
This is tight value — the SU is very strong, the ATS is modest but positive, and the O/U leans Under due to risk compression.
This aligns perfectly with Denver, whose 4–8 O/U record shows their games trend lower-scoring than the market expects.
🧱 3. Situational Stats & Team Identity
This is where Denver differs dramatically from New England.
Home Favorite: 4–0
PF: 28.75 — PA: 16.5
Powerful scoring spread at home. Dominant defense.
Home Underdog: 2–0
PF: 21 — PA: 15.5
Sneaky strong when undervalued.
Road Favorite: 3–2
PF: 21.8 — PA: 21.2
More chaotic — allows late scoring swings.
Road Underdog: 1–0
PF: 18 — PA: 15
Classic grind-it-out profile.
Recent Performance Scoring Averages
These rolling averages show their true identity:
| Sample | Points For | Points Against | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 19.67 | 17.33 | Defensive clampdowns; offense conservative |
| Last 5 | 24.2 | 18.2 | Balanced winning formula |
| Last 7 | 23.86 | 19.14 | Reliable scoring paired with bend-but-don’t-break defense |
| Last 10 | 23.6 | 17.7 | Long-term defensive integrity |
| Last 15 | 23.67 | 18.17 | Elite consistency |
Conclusion:
Denver is not explosive — they’re efficient.
They win more “stock market games” than “shootouts.”
🔥 4. Top Historical Trends (Broncos Edge Data)
- 12–2 SU as a –7 to –9.5 favorite in Weeks 12–16 with 6 days rest
- 16–3 SU in the same favorite range with 6 days rest after a road win
- 10–2 SU as a road favorite when entering with a perfect 7–0 form
- 21–5 SU for ANY team in the 7–9.5 road favorite range after facing a National Conference opponent
- 9–2 SU as a 7–9.5 away favorite after a non-division game since 1996
These trends all reinforce one message:
Denver thrives in structured, situationally favorable, disciplined environments.
📘 5. Season Log Review (What the Games Reveal)
1. Early turbulence doesn’t match current identity
Losses in Weeks 2 and 3 vs IND & LA were both one-possession games — the system was still calibrating.
2. Once they got rolling… forget it
From Week 4 onward, the defense tightened significantly, allowing:
- 3 points vs CIN
- 11 vs NY Jets
- 15 vs Houston
- 7 vs Raiders
- 19 vs Kansas City
3. Home field = elite reliability
Denver at home is a betting accountant’s dream — controlled pace, repeatable scoring.
🧠 6. Betting Value Assessment
Value Rating: ★★★★★
Best Markets: ATS, Unders, ML in moderate ranges
Risk Level: Low when at home; moderate as road favorite
Strategy: BUY — but manage expectations on totals
Denver’s identity relies on:
- Defensive consistency
- Market underpricing
- Controlling pace
They are less volatile than New England, which actually increases value for spread-based bettors.
📝 7. Final Report Card
| Category | Grade | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Market Grade | A | Strong across all indicators |
| Cycle Strength | A+ | 53-day Bullish run |
| DMVI | A | Reliable outperformer |
| Situational Edges | A | Extremely strong home/tier ATS |
| PVI-SOS Trend Strength | A- | Positive SU & ATS alignment |
| Betting Value | A | Great for ATS and Under markets |
⭐ Final Verdict: BUY
This is one of the most stable, profitable, and repeatable teams in the NFL betting market.
As long as the market keeps pricing Denver like a borderline team, bettors who understand the Raymond Report will keep cashing.
