The Broncos are one of the NFL’s most profitable teams on a market efficiency level. They’re not flashy… they’re precision-built. Where New England dominates with explosive scoring stability, Denver wins through tight defensive anchors, timely scoring, and market underpricing.
This is a team the books haven’t fully caught up to — and their DMVI proves it.
This is a confirmed “sweet spot” range:
Teams between –3 and –7 on DMVI historically produce the best ATS value.
The market expects wins from Denver — but it undervalues HOW they win. This is why their streak remains profitable.
A nearly two-month Bullish period indicates:
✔ Consistent market beating
✔ High confidence
✔ Strong adaptability home & away
✔ A major advantage vs weak opponents
Perfect condition. No signs of regression.
This is your industry-killer.
When Denver played as Road Team vs C-Type Opponent Coming Off a SU Win (Last 10):
When ANY A-Type Team played as Road Team vs C-Type Team Coming Off a SU Win:
This is tight value — the SU is very strong, the ATS is modest but positive, and the O/U leans Under due to risk compression.
This aligns perfectly with Denver, whose 4–8 O/U record shows their games trend lower-scoring than the market expects.
This is where Denver differs dramatically from New England.
PF: 28.75 — PA: 16.5
Powerful scoring spread at home. Dominant defense.
PF: 21 — PA: 15.5
Sneaky strong when undervalued.
PF: 21.8 — PA: 21.2
More chaotic — allows late scoring swings.
PF: 18 — PA: 15
Classic grind-it-out profile.
These rolling averages show their true identity:
| Sample | Points For | Points Against | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 19.67 | 17.33 | Defensive clampdowns; offense conservative |
| Last 5 | 24.2 | 18.2 | Balanced winning formula |
| Last 7 | 23.86 | 19.14 | Reliable scoring paired with bend-but-don’t-break defense |
| Last 10 | 23.6 | 17.7 | Long-term defensive integrity |
| Last 15 | 23.67 | 18.17 | Elite consistency |
Denver is not explosive — they’re efficient.
They win more “stock market games” than “shootouts.”
These trends all reinforce one message:
Denver thrives in structured, situationally favorable, disciplined environments.
Losses in Weeks 2 and 3 vs IND & LA were both one-possession games — the system was still calibrating.
From Week 4 onward, the defense tightened significantly, allowing:
Denver at home is a betting accountant’s dream — controlled pace, repeatable scoring.
Denver’s identity relies on:
They are less volatile than New England, which actually increases value for spread-based bettors.
| Category | Grade | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Market Grade | A | Strong across all indicators |
| Cycle Strength | A+ | 53-day Bullish run |
| DMVI | A | Reliable outperformer |
| Situational Edges | A | Extremely strong home/tier ATS |
| PVI-SOS Trend Strength | A- | Positive SU & ATS alignment |
| Betting Value | A | Great for ATS and Under markets |
This is one of the most stable, profitable, and repeatable teams in the NFL betting market.
As long as the market keeps pricing Denver like a borderline team, bettors who understand the Raymond Report will keep cashing.
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