⭐ ATS STATS – Team Grading Report
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($T.B.) — Market Grade: B | Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL (4 Days)
🏈 Team Overview
- Record: 7–5
- O/U Record: 6–6
- Current ATS Streak: 4 ATS Losses
- Last 7 Games: 3–4
- DMVI: –5.7
- Confidence Index: 33%
- Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL (4 Days)
- Current Game: vs New Orleans Saints (–8 / 42)
- Next Game: vs Atlanta
This is the definition of a danger-zone B-team.
The Buccaneers have a strong enough offense to stay competitive, but their defensive inconsistency and failure to cover spreads create a very unreliable betting profile. The –5.7 DMVI confirms the market expects more from Tampa than they can deliver.
📊 1. Market Value Index Breakdown
DMVI: –5.7
This range typically signals:
- Books are pricing Tampa too high
- Public perception is inflating spreads
- ATS crashes follow (and we’re seeing that with the 4 ATS losses)
DMVI screams:
Overvalued favorite. Undervalued dog. High total volatility.
Neutral Sentiment (4 Days)
A brand-new Neutral cycle usually brings:
- No clear market direction
- Erratic ATS outcomes
- Increased risk in favorite roles
And they’re currently –8 vs a division rival. Yikes.
Confidence Index: 33%
One of the lowest among B-teams.
Not a buy signal.
🔍 2. PVI–SOS System Trends (ATS STATS Exclusive)
Team-Specific Trend
Tampa as Home Team vs C-Type Opponent Coming Off SU Win:
No recent sample → neutral.
League-Level Trend:
Any B-Type Home Team vs C-Type Opponent Coming Off SU Win:
- SU: 4–2
- ATS: 4–2
- O/U: 2–4
This tells us two things:
- B-teams do win these games outright
- Totals lean Under
- ATS is positive, but Tampa-specific volatility weakens that signal
🧱 3. Situational Stats & Identity Breakdown
Home Favorite: 1–0
PF: 20 — PA: 17
Small sample, but competitive.
Home Underdog: 2–2
PF: 26.75 — PA: 26.25
High-scoring shootouts — no ATS reliability.
Road Favorite: 3–0
PF: 28 — PA: 19.33
Tampa actually thrives in the road favorite role, surprising but true.
Road Underdog: 1–3
PF: 17 — PA: 30.25
Terrible. They get exposed badly.
This is one of the clearest team-identity signals you’ll see:
Tampa cannot chase games. They fall apart when trailing on the road.
🔥 4. Recent Performance Metrics
| Span | PF | PA | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| L3 | 19.67 | 31.67 | Defense collapsing |
| L5 | 21 | 25.2 | Offense average, defense still leaking |
| L7 | 20.57 | 24.14 | Negative scoring margin |
| L10 | 23.6 | 26.2 | Consistent shootout profile |
| L15 | 23.25 | 25.08 | Long-term imbalance |
The pattern:
✔ Offense shows up
✖ Defense disappears
✖ ATS reliability collapses
✔ Totals volatility spikes
Perfect example of a Neutral, high-variance team.
🧠 5. Top Tampa Trends
- 3–9 O/U when home favorite Week 12–16 before a division game
- 4–12 O/U when home favorite with 6 days rest after 2 Unders
- 43–26 SU as home favorite with ≤2 Unders
- 28–5 SU for any home favorite after a conference game with 6 days rest
- 3–13 O/U before playing Carolina
Strongest takeaway:
Tampa’s December totals tend to crash Under, not over.
📘 6. Season Log Summary — Tampa’s True Story
Early Season:
Started hot with wins @ Atlanta, @ Houston, and vs Jets.
Defense looked stable.
Midseason Reality Check:
Losses to DET, SF, and NE exposed defensive holes.
The blowout loss to Buffalo (44–32) confirmed it.
Recent ATS collapse:
Losses to LA Rams, Arizona, and New England were all games where they were overvalued by the market.
This team no longer matches the numbers Vegas assigns them.
🔥 7. Betting Value Assessment
Value Rating: ★★☆☆☆
Best Markets:
- Unders in divisional/December games
- ATS as road favorite (rare but profitable)
- Avoid at home as large chalk (like this week)
Risk Level:
HIGH — due to volatility, poor ATS form, and mismatched pricing.
📝 8. Final Report Card
| Category | Grade | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Market Grade | B | Offense keeps them competitive |
| Cycle Strength | C- | Neutral + ATS losing streak |
| DMVI | A- | Great fade signals when overpriced |
| Situational Edges | C | Too inconsistent across roles |
| PVI–SOS Strength | B | Under trend strong |
| Betting Value | C | Selective only |
⭐ Final Verdict: HOLD / FADE
Do NOT trust Tampa Bay as large favorites.
Their ATS crash, defensive instability, and inflated market pricing make them a high-risk proposition.
Best value is Unders and occasional road-favorite spots.
