⭐ ATS STATS – Team Grading Report

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($T.B.) — Market Grade: B | Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL (4 Days)

🏈 Team Overview

• Record: 7–5
• O/U Record: 6–6
• Current ATS Streak: 4 ATS Losses
• Last 7 Games: 3–4
• DMVI: –5.7
• Confidence Index: 33%
• Market Sentiment: NEUTRAL (4 Days)
• Current Game: vs New Orleans Saints (–8 / 42)
• Next Game: vs Atlanta

This is the definition of a danger-zone B-team.
The Buccaneers have a strong enough offense to stay competitive, but their defensive inconsistency and failure to cover spreads create a very unreliable betting profile. The –5.7 DMVI confirms the market expects more from Tampa than they can deliver.

📊 1. Market Value Index Breakdown

DMVI: –5.7

This range typically signals:

• Books are pricing Tampa too high
• Public perception is inflating spreads
• ATS crashes follow (and we’re seeing that with the 4 ATS losses)

DMVI screams:
Overvalued favorite. Undervalued dog. High total volatility.

Neutral Sentiment (4 Days)

A brand-new Neutral cycle usually brings:

• No clear market direction
• Erratic ATS outcomes
• Increased risk in favorite roles

And they’re currently –8 vs a division rival. Yikes.

Confidence Index: 33%

One of the lowest among B-teams.
Not a buy signal.

🔍 2. PVI–SOS System Trends (ATS STATS Exclusive)

Team-Specific Trend

Tampa as Home Team vs C-Type Opponent Coming Off SU Win:
No recent sample → neutral.

League-Level Trend:

Any B-Type Home Team vs C-Type Opponent Coming Off SU Win:

• SU: 4–2
• ATS: 4–2
• O/U: 2–4

This tells us two things:

1. B-teams do win these games outright
2. Totals lean Under
3. ATS is positive, but Tampa-specific volatility weakens that signal

🧱 3. Situational Stats & Identity Breakdown

Home Favorite: 1–0

PF: 20 — PA: 17
Small sample, but competitive.

Home Underdog: 2–2

PF: 26.75 — PA: 26.25
High-scoring shootouts — no ATS reliability.

Road Favorite: 3–0

PF: 28 — PA: 19.33
Tampa actually thrives in the road favorite role, surprising but true.

Road Underdog: 1–3

PF: 17 — PA: 30.25
Terrible. They get exposed badly.

This is one of the clearest team-identity signals you’ll see:

Tampa cannot chase games. They fall apart when trailing on the road.

🔥 4. Recent Performance Metrics

The pattern:

✔ Offense shows up
✖ Defense disappears
✖ ATS reliability collapses
✔ Totals volatility spikes

Perfect example of a Neutral, high-variance team.

🧠 5. Top Tampa Trends

• 3–9 O/U when home favorite Week 12–16 before a division game
• 4–12 O/U when home favorite with 6 days rest after 2 Unders
• 43–26 SU as home favorite with ≤2 Unders
• 28–5 SU for any home favorite after a conference game with 6 days rest
• 3–13 O/U before playing Carolina

Strongest takeaway:
Tampa’s December totals tend to crash Under, not over.

📘 6. Season Log Summary — Tampa’s True Story

Early Season:

Started hot with wins @ Atlanta, @ Houston, and vs Jets.
Defense looked stable.

Midseason Reality Check:

Losses to DET, SF, and NE exposed defensive holes.
The blowout loss to Buffalo (44–32) confirmed it.

Recent ATS collapse:

Losses to LA Rams, Arizona, and New England were all games where they were overvalued by the market.

This team no longer matches the numbers Vegas assigns them.

🔥 7. Betting Value Assessment

Value Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Best Markets:

• Unders in divisional/December games
• ATS as road favorite (rare but profitable)
• Avoid at home as large chalk (like this week)

Risk Level:

HIGH — due to volatility, poor ATS form, and mismatched pricing.

📝 8. Final Report Card

⭐ Final Verdict: HOLD / FADE

Do NOT trust Tampa Bay as large favorites.
Their ATS crash, defensive instability, and inflated market pricing make them a high-risk proposition.

Best value is Unders and occasional road-favorite spots.