AutoZone Liberty Bowl Preview & Prediction

AutoZone Liberty Bowl | January 2, 2026 | 4:30 PM ET

Some bowl games are about motivation.
Some are about matchups.
This one? It’s about discipline vs damage control — and the Raymond REPORT doesn’t blink.

Navy rolls into Memphis laying -8, and the market says this isn’t charity… it’s pricing confidence.

Market Snapshot (Raymond REPORT Tipsheet)

• Line: Navy -8
• Total: 56
• Forecast: Navy 35.26 – Cincinnati 25.91
• Value Index (VI): Navy -10 | Cincinnati +3.33
• C.O.W (Chance of Win): Navy 76.57% | Cincinnati 45.45%
• PVI–SOS: Navy (A – Neutral) | Cincinnati (B – Bearish)

Translation?
Vegas sees Navy controlling the game.
The Raymond REPORT agrees — and then underlines it twice.

Navy Midshipmen: Same System, Same Stress

Navy doesn’t change for bowl games — and that’s the problem for opponents.

• Last 10 Games: 8–2 SU
• Streak: 2 SU wins, 2 ATS wins, 2 straight Unders
• Point Margin (Last 3): -8.33 (tight games, still winning)
• Offense vs Road: 25.8 PPG
• Defense vs Road: 30.2 PAP

This is a team that:

• Wins possession
• Controls tempo
• Forces mistakes from undisciplined defenses

Cincinnati checks every box of a team that struggles against this style.

Cincinnati Bearcats: The Wrong Kind of Momentum

Cincinnati limps into the bowl season with alarms going off everywhere.

• Last 5 Games: 1–4 SU | 1–4 ATS
• Streak: 4 SU losses, 4 ATS losses
• Last Game: Lost 45–23
• Defense (Last 3): Allowing 33.67 PPG
• SOS (Last 3): 77.78% (heavy resistance, poor response)

Even worse?
They’re coming off 33 days of rest, historically a bearish setup for this program.

Rest doesn’t fix tackling angles.

Total Breakdown: Why 56 Is Inflated

The forecast total sits north of 61, but context matters.

Key Raymond REPORT indicators:

• Navy: 2 straight Unders
• Cincinnati: 2–8 O/U last 10 overall
• Situational trends lean Under for both teams after recent losses
• Navy’s game script shortens possessions late

This doesn’t scream shootout — it screams controlled chaos.

Raymond REPORT Value Plays

⭐ Primary Value: Navy -8

• Superior discipline
• Massive C.O.W edge
• Cincinnati in a negative ATS spiral

⭐ Lean: Under 56

• Navy dictates pace
• Cincinnati offense inconsistent
• Red-zone efficiency favors Navy, not volume

Final Score Prediction

Navy 34 – Cincinnati 24

No gimmicks.
No panic.
Just execution.

If you’re betting bowl games emotionally, this one will hurt.
If you’re betting like an investor, this one makes sense.

And if you want this level of breakdown every day, you already know where to go —
📊 ATSStats.com — where bowl games aren’t holiday gifts, they’re market opportunities.

Tell it like it is. Bet it like a pro. 🏈💰