Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers will find themselves in a unfamiliar role Monday night in the CFB National Championship game, this will be the first time this season, they will be in an “underdog” role. In fact, at the time of this write up, Bookmaker.eu had LSU as a -5 point favorite and when reviewing both teams stats, LSU has only been an underdog once this season and it was as a +5.0 point dog vs. Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide on November 9th in Tuscaloosa.
The Raymond Report Handicapping System is based on 3 key fundamentals; Value, Percentage Play and the V.I.C. (Vegas Index Cycle).
When looking at both football teams strength of schedule, LSU has faced 8 teams who we classify as A-TYPE teams, while Clemson has only faced 6 A-TYPE teams this season. Keep in mind, the LSU Tigers played in a very competitive SEC Conference, while Clemson played in the ACC, which did not have strong teams in the conference this season.
When digging up the numbers, the average line for Clemson as a favorite vs. A-TYPE teams like Ohio State and Virginia was -20.0 with the average total at 60.3, while the average line for LSU vs. A-Type teams like Oklahoma and Georgia was -10.8. and the total at 62.6.
Here’s where I found Clemson had the edge in the Strength of Schedule numbers.
The Clemson Tigers averaged 41 Points For vs. A-TYPE teams, but only surrendered 13 points against on defense, compared to 44 PF and 28 PA for LSU. However, let’s keep in mind, the LSU Tigers strength of schedule was by far more competitive then Clemson’s opponents this season.
Ron’s Betting Tip: The UNDER was 5-1-0 for Clemson vs. A-TYPE opponents, while the LSU Tigers O/U Record vs. A-TYPE foes was five hundred at 4-4-0.
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Clemson Tigers Home Games vs. A-Type Teams
|2019-09-07||CLEMSON||-15.5||A||BULLISH||TEXAS A&M||15.5||A||BULLISH||-15.5||61||24||10||Texas A&M||Clemson||U|
Clemson Tigers Road Games vs. A-Type Teams
LSU Tigers Home Games vs. A-Type Teams
LSU Tigers Road Games vs. A-Type Teams