By Ron Raymond – ATS STATS
The second half of the CFL season is heating up, and Week 8 has all the ingredients for a betting shake-up — streaky teams, inflated lines, sneaky dogs, and underrated totals. Let’s break down each game with insights from the Raymond Report and give you the smart edge for the weekend gridiron action.
🏈 Thursday, July 24 – Montreal Alouettes vs. Calgary Stampeders (-5.5)
📍 McMahon Stadium | Total: 51.8
The Calgary Stampeders are surging with 3 straight wins both SU and ATS, while the Alouettes limp in off a sloppy cover record (0-3 ATS last 3). Calgary’s C.O.W. (Chance of Winning) sits at 58.97%, powered by home dominance and a Bullish VIC rating.
🔹 Fun Fact: Despite being 5-1 SU, Calgary’s SOS (Strength of Schedule) is just 44.44% in their last 3. This could mean they’re due for a regression vs. stronger teams.
🔸 Watch For: Market overreaction on Calgary. Line value may lean toward Montreal if this pushes past +6.
🏈 Friday, July 25 – Edmonton Elks vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (-10)
📍 Mosaic Stadium | Total: 49.21
The Elks are still stuck in the CFL basement at 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5. Meanwhile, Saskatchewan is playing like Grey Cup contenders with a 5-1 SU record and coming off a dominant stretch.
🔹 Value Index Watch: Despite a 10-point spread, Saskatchewan has a NEUTRAL VIC and a sharp SOS of 77.78% in their last 3 — they’re battle-tested.
🔸 Fun Fact: Elks have a C.O.G.O. (Chance of Game Going Over) of just 35%, and Riders match that. This might be a sneaky UNDER play.
🏈 Saturday, July 26 – Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-2.5) vs. Toronto Argonauts
📍 BMO Field | Total: 51.26
Winnipeg’s offense has stumbled a bit, but they’ve still got the highest projected score (26.63) this week. Toronto, though, is just 1-5 SU and giving up points like a slot machine lately.
🔹 Overload Alert: The Argos have gone OVER in 4 of their last 5, and Winnipeg is built to expose weak defenses. COGO is low (33%), but trends don’t lie.
🔸 Contrarian Play: With Winnipeg the favorite, yet both teams riding losing streaks, look for sharp bettors to eye the total or a live dog.
🏈 Sunday, July 27 – Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. BC Lions (-3)
📍 BC Place Stadium | Total: 55.26
This is a heavyweight battle between two streaking squads: Hamilton is on a 4-game win streak SU, while BC has won 4 of 5. The market is tight, and so are the betting signals.
🔹 Sharp Edge: Hamilton’s SOS is just 11.11% over their last 3, while BC has faced stiffer competition. Add a BULLISH VIC for BC, and they might be the right side at home.
🔸 Total Trend: Both teams show a 60% C.O.G.O., and the total is a fat 55.5. Look for explosive play potential from both sides.
🧠 Ron’s Week 8 Betting Nuggets:
- ✅ Best OVER Spot: Hamilton vs. BC (High COGOs, fast tracks indoors)
- 🧊 Best UNDER Spot: Edmonton vs. Saskatchewan (Low COGO, tough D)
- 💸 Underdog to Watch: Montreal +5.5 – better SOS than Calgary, line may be inflated
- 📉 Fade Watch: Toronto Argonauts – leaky defense, low confidence, poor form
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