Brought to you by ATS Stats – Smart Betting Starts Here
The fall meet at Churchill Downs rolls on this Friday with a solid 10-race lineup packed with claiming and allowance action across both dirt and turf. Using the Raymond Track Report as our guide, we’ve highlighted top contenders, live longshots, and wagering strategies for sharp horseplayers.
🏁 Race 1 – Claiming $83,000
Post Time: 1:00 PM
Distance: 1 Mile on the Dirt
- Win: (1) First Player – Irad Ortiz Jr. (55%)
- Place: (2) Authentic Gallop – Jose Ortiz (37%)
- Show: (5) Hailstorm – Luis Saez (34%)
- Joker: (3) Zambezi – Tyler Gaffalione
Analysis: The Ortiz brothers open the day battling it out. First Player (1) looks sharp from the rail for Irad and controls early pace. Authentic Gallop (2) presents strong value at 10-1, while Hailstorm (5) rounds out the top tier with consistent dirt form.
Suggested Plays:
💰 Exacta Box: 1/2, 2/5, 5/3
💰 Trifecta Box: 1/2/5, 3/2/5
🏁 Race 2 – Claiming $36,000
Post Time: 1:29 PM – 6½ Furlongs (Dirt)
- Win: (5) Alongcomesawoman – L. Saez
- Place: (7) Starlit Sofi – T. Gaffalione
- Show: (2) Minnesota Rose – F. De La Cruz
- Joker: (6) Gold Del Mar – J.R. Leparoux
Analysis: Expect Alongcomesawoman (5) to control from gate to wire. Starlit Sofi (7) adds betting interest, while Minnesota Rose (2) could sneak into the exacta at big odds.
Plays: 5/7 Box; 7/2 Box; Trifecta 5/7/2.
🏁 Race 3 – Maiden Claiming $57,000
Post Time: 1:58 PM – 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)
- Win: (3) Come to Papa – J.L. Ortiz
- Place: (4) Morlock – L. Saez
- Show: (8) Concrete Cruiser – E. Esquivel
Analysis: Come to Papa (3) seems poised to graduate today. Morlock (4) offers early speed and experience, while Concrete Cruiser (8) should improve alongside stronger rivals.
🏁 Race 4 – Maiden Claiming $57,000
Post Time: 2:08 PM – 6½ Furlongs (Dirt)
- Win: (11) Reya Sunshine – T.W. Bacon (41%)
- Place: (9) Sand Queen – L. Saez
- Show: (1) Lady Pippa – T. Gaffalione
Analysis: Reya Sunshine (11) owns the best win percentage in this field. Sand Queen and Lady Pippa round out a nice trifecta combination.
🏁 Race 5 – Allowance $127,000 (Turf)
Post Time: 2:57 PM – 1 Mile
- Win: (6) East Village – Irad Ortiz Jr. (55%)
- Place: (4) Patrol Squad Six – Jose Ortiz
- Show: (3) Easy Wind – L. Saez
Analysis: East Village (6) looks like the best turf bet of the day. Patrol Squad Six (4) challenges late, and Easy Wind (3) closes well.
Plays: Exacta 6/4 Box; Trifecta 6/4/3 Box.
🔥 Best Bet: (6) East Village
🏁 Race 6 – Maiden Claiming $67,000
Post Time: 3:26 PM – 6½ Furlongs (Dirt)
- Win: (1) Herbs Bolt
- Place: (2) Rebel With a Cause
- Show: (10) Coal Fired
Analysis: Herbs Bolt (1) continues to improve. The Ortiz brothers again dominate this race with likely top-two finishes. Coal Fired (10) could surprise late for value players.
🏁 Race 7 – Claiming $76,000
Post Time: 3:55 PM – 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
- Win: (4) Brunch With Amy
- Place: (3) Atlantic Passage
- Show: (2) Feasible
Analysis: Brunch With Amy (4) owns both class and pace advantage. Atlantic Passage (3) holds late speed potential, while Feasible (2) offers price appeal.
🏁 Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight $120,000 (Turf)
Post Time: 4:25 PM – 1 1/16 Miles
- Win: (11) Worry Be Gone
- Place: (6) Coastal Cabin
- Show: (7) Chere Amia
Analysis: Wide turf field with Ortiz magic again — Worry Be Gone (11) looks ready. Coastal Cabin and Chere Amia form the main challengers.
🏁 Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming $141,000
Post Time: 4:55 PM – 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)
- Win: (7) Catching Freedom
- Place: (1) Gun Party
- Show: (8) Mackman
Analysis: Catching Freedom (7) drops to ideal company. Gun Party has upside, and Mackman fits exotics well.
🏁 Race 10 – Maiden Special Weight $92,000
Post Time: 5:24 PM – 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
- Win: (11) Fizzy Lass – Irad Ortiz Jr.
- Place: (12) R Kendl – J. McKee
- Show: (1) Lady Got Game – J.L. Ortiz
Analysis: Fizzy Lass (11) should flash early speed and dominate this final race. R Kendl (12) brings solid trainer stats and consistency, while Lady Got Game (1) has the class to hit the board.
📊 Summary & Betting Insights
- Top Jockey of the Day: Irad Ortiz Jr. – multiple live mounts including (1) First Player and (6) East Village.
- Live Longshots: (2) Authentic Gallop – Race 1; (10) Coal Fired – Race 6; (8) Mackman – Race 9.
- Best Bet: (6) East Village – Race 5.
- Value Trifecta: Race 3 – 3/4/8 Box.
💡 ATS Stats Tip:
When both Ortiz brothers appear on the same card, pay attention to how they manage race pace — they often work opposite strategies that set up their mounts perfectly. Track bias and early fractions could make or break your multi-race tickets today!
Good luck and happy wagering from ATS Stats!
