CHURCHILL DOWNS THOROUGHBRED TIPSHEET

Pace maps look fair today: plenty of speed signed up in the sprints and some nice stalker types in the routes. As always: skip underlays, hunt overlays, and let the public guess while you bet with structure.

RACE 1 – Claiming – $62,000

1 1/16 Miles – Dirt – Post: 1:00 PM

Race Shape: Honest pace – advantage to stalkers who finish.

**WIN – (5) Goldenageactress – I. Ortiz Jr. (50%)
Tactical stalker who should sit 3rd–4th early and pounce turning for home. Logical key horse.
**PLACE – (8) Don’t Look Back – E. Esquivel (32%)
Pressing type drawn outside; can track the pace and grind on late at a price.
**SHOW – (2) Moringa – C. Barbosa (33%)
More of a late grinder, passing horses late for a share.
**JOKER – (6) Theoretically – F. De La Cruz (28%)
Can show forward speed; if left alone early, can hang on for a chunk of the trifecta.

Exacta: 5/8 BOX, 8/2 BOX, 2/6 BOX
Trifecta: 5/8/2 BOX, 6/8/2 BOX

RACE 2 – Maiden Special Weight – $120,000

1 1/16 Miles – Dirt – Post: 1:29 PM

Race Shape: Controlled pace, class horses up front.

**WIN – (6) Publisher – I. Ortiz Jr.
Versatile stalk-and-pounce type, looks like the best horse on paper.
**PLACE – (7) Sixtyseven Mustang – T. W. Bacon (42%)
Pressing style outside; perfect trip tracking the leader.
**SHOW – (3) Crisis Manager – J. L. Ortiz (37%)
Mid-pack stalker who can sit inside and punch through late.
**JOKER – (1) Up Country – L. Saez (33%)
Rail speed; if he breaks sharply, he can force or control the pace and hang around.

Exacta: 6/7 BOX, 7/3 BOX, 3/1 BOX
Trifecta: 6/7/3 BOX, 1/7/3 BOX

RACE 3 – Claiming – $62,000

1 Mile – Dirt – Post: 1:58 PM

Race Shape: Good amount of speed – sets up for tactical runners.

**WIN – (5) Whiskey Shot – I. Ortiz Jr.
Ideal tactical stalker, should sit behind the duel and take over late.
**PLACE – (6) Wind Rider – T. W. Bacon
Pressing style; close to the pace and tough customer in the lane.
**SHOW – (2) Handsome Pants – J. L. Ortiz
Inside stalker/closer; rail-saving trip and late run make him a solid show key.
**JOKER – (9) Expect the Best – L. Saez
Outside pace factor who can be on or near the lead and keep the exotics interesting.

Exacta: 5/6 BOX, 6/2 BOX, 2/9 BOX
Trifecta: 5/6/2 BOX, 9/6/2 BOX

RACE 4 – Claiming – $89,000

1 Mile – Turf – Post: 2:27 PM

Race Shape: Typical turf – bunched pack, late turn of foot matters.

**WIN – (8) Black Powder – I. Ortiz Jr.
Classic turf stalker, sitting mid-pack and quickening late.
**PLACE – (5) Classic Legacy – J. L. Ortiz
More of a pace-presser, can sit just off the leaders and get first run.
**SHOW – (4) What Say Thee – L. Saez
Closer who’ll be rolling late if the fractions are honest.
**JOKER – (7) Moogie Son – R. A. Prescott (32%)
Deep off-the-pace type, needs a meltdown but can blow up the tri.

Exacta: 8/5 BOX, 5/4 BOX, 4/7 BOX
Trifecta: 8/5/4 BOX, 7/5/4 BOX

RACE 5 – Claiming – $58,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 2:57 PM

Race Shape: Fast – several want the front.

**WIN – (1) Farm Team – I. Ortiz Jr.
Rail speed/press type; should be right on the pace and tough to reel in.
**PLACE – (5) Tiverton – J. L. Ortiz
Stalking sprinter, ideal outside tracking trip behind the 1.
**SHOW – (7) One True Shance – L. Saez
Off-the-pace runner, will be finishing if the front end collapses.
**JOKER – (3) Rocket Hoss – F. De La Cruz
Can show surprise speed and hang around for a minor share at a price.

Exacta: 1/5 BOX, 5/7 BOX, 7/3 BOX
Trifecta: 1/5/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

RACE 6 – Starter Allowance – $62,000

1 Mile – Dirt – Post: 3:26 PM

Race Shape: Honest; a couple of pace players, several stalkers.

**WIN – (3) Storm the Streets – I. Ortiz Jr.
Tracking style, should sit just behind the leaders and get a clean run.
**PLACE – (9) Sweetalkingbourbon – J. L. Ortiz
More of a pressing grinder, always in the fight turning for home.
**SHOW – (4) Tyler’s Turn – B. J. Hernandez Jr. (32%)
Mid-pack stalker who stays on late and hits plenty of tickets.
**JOKER – (7) Patton’s Tizzy – E. Esquivel
Forward type, can force the pace and stick around longer than expected.

Exacta: 3/9 BOX, 9/4 BOX, 4/7 BOX
Trifecta: 3/9/4 BOX, 7/9/4 BOX

RACE 7 – Maiden Special Weight – $120,000

1 1/8 Miles – Turf – Post: 3:55 PM

Race Shape: Slow early/quick late – turf marathon feel.

**WIN – (10) Western Run – I. Ortiz Jr.
Stalker/closer with the right pilot; should sit mid-pack and finish hard.
**PLACE – (3) Gold Sovereign – J. L. Ortiz
Pressing style, likely to sit close to the pace and get first jump.
**SHOW – (11) Ryan’s Shadow – S. Gonzalez (37%)
Wide but deep-closing type; if the race gets bunched, will be flying late.
**JOKER – (12) Kicking Clear – L. Saez
From the far outside, projects as an off-the-pace sweeper who can spice up the tri.

Exacta: 10/3 BOX, 3/11 BOX, 11/12 BOX
Trifecta: 10/3/11 BOX, 12/3/11 BOX

RACE 8 – Claiming – $89,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 4:25 PM

Race Shape: Hot pace – classic Churchill sprint chaos potential.

**WIN – (10) Lunar Module – I. Ortiz Jr.
Stalker with finish; perfect setup behind a sizzling pace. Live price horse.
**PLACE – (4) Finster – J. L. Ortiz
Pressing sprinter, always right on the leaders’ hip.
**SHOW – (5) Kavod – L. Saez
Pure speed type; if he breaks sharply, he can battle all the way to the wire.
**JOKER – (9) Bebedouro – L. Machado (24%)
Late-running type who can clunk up for third or fourth in a pace meltdown.

Exacta: 10/4 BOX, 4/5 BOX, 5/9 BOX
Trifecta: 10/4/5 BOX, 9/4/5 BOX

RACE 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming – $134,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 4:55 PM

Race Shape: Strong, classy sprint pace.

**WIN – (9) One Nine Hundred – I. Ortiz Jr.
High-quality pace-presser, should sit right off the speed and blow past late.
**PLACE – (7) Echo Again – J. L. Ortiz
Speed/press type; can absolutely win if he clears or sits a cozy trip.
**SHOW – (6) Eglise – L. Saez
Honest stalker, great horse to anchor tris and supers.
**JOKER – (2) Keep It Easy – C. J. Lanerie (28%)
Rail-skirting closer, could save all the ground and sneak into the number.

Exacta: 9/7 BOX, 7/6 BOX, 6/2 BOX
Trifecta: 9/7/6 BOX, 2/7/6 BOX

RACE 10 – Maiden Special Weight – $120,000

1 Mile – Dirt – Post: 5:24 PM

Race Shape: Even; a couple of speeds, several quality stalkers.

**WIN – (9) Phila Street – I. Ortiz Jr.
Looks like a stalk-and-strike type with upside; strong finisher.
**PLACE – (2) Chip Honcho – J. L. Ortiz
Rail pace-presser, should be part of the first flight all the way.
**SHOW – (8) Prince of Light – L. Saez
Mid-pack runner who will grind on late and land in the trifecta mix.
**JOKER – (11) Refined Design – B. J. Hernandez Jr. (32%)
Outside post but late-running style fits if the race gets hot up front.

Exacta: 9/2 BOX, 2/8 BOX, 8/11 BOX
Trifecta: 9/2/8 BOX, 11/2/8 BOX

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 2 – (6) Publisher – Class, rider, and projected trip all line up.

LIVE OVERLAY WATCH

Race 8 – (10) Lunar Module – If that 8–1 range holds and the pace cooks, this is the kind of overlay our members love to live off.

You know the drill: structure your tickets, chase value, not action. Full cards, tools, and value reports available at ATSstats.com. 💰🏇