CHURCHILL DOWNS THOROUGHBRED TIPSHEET – Wedneday, Nov 19, 2025 |

Clean, logical card at Churchill today with several short-priced favorites and a few live price horses that can spice up the exotics. As always: skip underlays, hunt overlays, and let the public guess while you bet with structure.

RACE 1 – Maiden Claiming – $48,000

1 1/16 Miles – Dirt – Post: 1:00 PM

Race Shape: Moderate pace – advantage to tactical speed/stalkers.

**WIN – (2) Mountain Wolf – I. Ortiz Jr. (49%)
Class of the field on paper. Projects as a pace-controlling stalker sitting just off the early speed before taking over late. The one to beat.
**PLACE – (6) Prototype – E. Asmussen (45%)
Grinding stalker/closer who should sit mid-pack and make a steady run. Perfect horse to hook up underneath in exotics.
**SHOW – (5) C. P. A. Jim – B. J. Hernandez Jr. (34%)
More of a late grinder who will need the top two to soften each other up. Reliable board hitter.
**JOKER – (1) Bagg O Time – J. C. Bealmear (23%)
Rail trip and forward placement makes him the chaos candidate to crash the tri or super at a price.

Exacta: 2/6 BOX, 6/5 BOX, 5/1 BOX
Trifecta: 2/6/5 BOX, 1/6/5 BOX

RACE 2 – Claiming – $60,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 1:29 PM

Race Shape: Honest to fast pace – speed and pressing types preferred.

**WIN – (2) Golden Degree – I. Ortiz Jr.
Sharp early foot, pace-presser who can sit just off the leaders and pounce. Logical chalk.
**PLACE – (4) Titled Lady – J. L. Ortiz (39%)
Versatile stalker who can adapt to the flow. Perfect partner for exactas with the 2.
**SHOW – (6) Smart With Heart – C. A. Torres (26%)
Projects as a closer picking up tired horses late; nice value underneath.
**JOKER – (3) We’ll Do It Live – W. A. Rodriguez (24%)
Could show more speed today; sneaky pace factor that can hang around for a piece.

Exacta: 2/4 BOX, 4/6 BOX, 6/3 BOX
Trifecta: 2/4/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

RACE 3 – Maiden Claiming – $48,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 1:58 PM

Race Shape: Plenty of speed signed on – sets up for one strong finisher.

**WIN – (2) Two Seven O – E. Asmussen (45%)
Tactical stalk-and-pounce style fits perfectly behind the duel. Top pick.
**PLACE – (4) Knickadoo – E. Esquivel (32%)
Should be close to the early pace and fight on late. Live price.
**SHOW – (7) Jock Frost – L. Saez (30%)
More of a pressing style; Saez will likely put him in the race early.
**JOKER – (8) Royal Sapphire – S. E. Bermudez (30%)
Could sit back and close into the tiring speed; tri/super buster if the pace melts down.

Exacta: 2/4 BOX, 4/7 BOX, 7/8 BOX
Trifecta: 2/4/7 BOX, 8/4/7 BOX

RACE 4 – Maiden Claiming – $57,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 2:27 PM

Race Shape: Fast fractions likely – wide-open if favorites get hooked.

**WIN – (2) Miracle On Central – T. W. Bacon (43%)
Has the profile of a stalker who sits just behind the duel and tips out turning for home.
**PLACE – (7) Capital Connection – J. L. Ortiz (39%)
Legit pace presence; if he clears, he could simply keep going.
**SHOW – (1) Mandy’s Man Can – E. Esquivel (32%)
Rail runner with inside speed; could sit pocketed and trip out.
**JOKER – (11) Fox Creek – C. Barbosa (33%)
Outside post gives him a late-running, sweeping trip; danger at long odds.

Exacta: 2/7 BOX, 7/1 BOX, 1/11 BOX
Trifecta: 2/7/1 BOX, 11/7/1 BOX

RACE 5 – Claiming – $58,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 2:57 PM

Race Shape: Compact field with multiple speed types – trip will matter.

**WIN – (2) Wonder of You – E. Asmussen (45%)
Tactical pace-presser with enough finish to separate late. Solid win candidate.
**PLACE – (10) Sensible Choice – T. W. Bacon (43%)
Wide draw but has stalking speed; perfect for outside tracking trip.
**SHOW – (4) Just an Opinion – J. L. Ortiz (39%)
Projects as a strong late stalker, great key for exacta/tri.
**JOKER – (8) Streaking – E. Esquivel (32%)
Speedy type who could catch a flyer from the gate and hang on for a share.

Exacta: 2/10 BOX, 10/4 BOX, 4/8 BOX
Trifecta: 2/10/4 BOX, 8/10/4 BOX

RACE 6 – Maiden Claiming – $72,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 3:26 PM

Race Shape: Balanced – a mix of speed and off-the-pace types.

**WIN – (5) You’re in Heaven – I. Ortiz Jr. (49%)
Looks like a tactical stalker with upside; best rider, best setup.
**PLACE – (4) Rockin the Lane – T. W. Bacon (43%)
Forwardly placed pace presser, can sit second and chase all the way.
**SHOW – (6) Silvertown – E. Esquivel (32%)
More of a late-running grinder who should be passing horses late.
**JOKER – (3) Glazin’ Fury – L. Saez (30%)
Aggressive ride likely – on or near the lead, and that always makes him dangerous.

Exacta: 5/4 BOX, 4/6 BOX, 6/3 BOX
Trifecta: 5/4/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

RACE 7 – Maiden Special Weight – $120,000

1 Mile – Dirt – Post: 3:55 PM

Race Shape: Honest tempo – ideal for mid-pack stalkers with a late punch.

**WIN – (8) Intangible – I. Ortiz Jr. (49%)
Projects as a powerful stalker sitting 3rd–4th early and taking over late. Strong “A” horse.
**PLACE – (5) Leedu – J. L. Ortiz (39%)
Pace-presser who stays close and keeps the favorite honest. Major win threat.
**SHOW – (10) Cearnach – L. Saez (30%)
Outside trip but has tactical speed; could sit wide stalking trip and still hang around.
**JOKER – (7) Summer Date – C. A. Torres (26%)
More of a late-running type who can clunk up for a piece if the top three go too fast.

Exacta: 8/5 BOX, 5/10 BOX, 10/7 BOX
Trifecta: 8/5/10 BOX, 7/5/10 BOX

RACE 8 – Allowance – $127,000

1 1/16 Miles – Turf – Post: 4:25 PM

Race Shape: Several want position; projects as a controlled, tactical turf race.

**WIN – (9) Aggressive Lime – I. Ortiz Jr. (49%)
Classic turf stalker, sits behind the leaders, explodes late. The one they all have to hold off.
**PLACE – (8) Back Ring Buzz – J. L. Ortiz (39%)
Pressing style with enough staying power to dig in down the lane.
**SHOW – (5) Dame Laura – L. Saez (30%)
Closer who will be coming late; perfect underneath key.
**JOKER – (6) Dreaming Why – S. E. Bermudez (30%)
Longshot deep closer – needs pace help, but can absolutely blow up the exotics.

Exacta: 9/8 BOX, 8/5 BOX, 5/6 BOX
Trifecta: 9/8/5 BOX, 6/8/5 BOX

RACE 9 – Maiden Special Weight – $92,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 4:55 PM

Race Shape: Hot pace up front – great spot for an off-the-pace finisher at a price.

**WIN – (3) Slay Sadie Slay – I. Ortiz Jr. (49%)
Looks like a stalker with a serious late punch. Perfect race flow for this one.
**PLACE – (1) Righteous – J. L. Ortiz (39%)
Rail horse with good gate speed, should be part of the early mix and hang around.
**SHOW – (12) Blessed Warrior – S. Gonzalez (35%)
Wide post but late-running style fits the expected hot pace.
**JOKER – (6) Outlaw Empire – B. J. Hernandez Jr. (34%)
Speedy/pressing type who could stick around longer than expected and juice the tri.

Exacta: 3/1 BOX, 1/12 BOX, 12/6 BOX
Trifecta: 3/1/12 BOX, 6/1/12 BOX

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 1 – (2) Mountain Wolf
Class, rider, and race shape all point the same way.

LIVE LONGSHOT / OVERLAY WATCH

Race 9 – (12) Blessed Warrior – Wide but perfectly built to take advantage of a pace collapse at a price.

If your horse is a true overlay, you bet it. If it’s an underlay, you let the crowd have it and save your bullets for the next race.

Full tools, value reports, and more at ATSstats.com – turn the tote board into your friend, not your enemy. 💰🏇