CHURCHILL DOWNS THOROUGHBRED TIPSHEET – Wedneday, Nov 19, 2025

Powered by ATSstats.com – Raymond Track Report

Clean, logical card at Churchill today with several short-priced favorites and a few live price horses that can spice up the exotics. As always: skip underlays, hunt overlays, and let the public guess while you bet with structure.

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RACE 1 – Maiden Claiming – $48,000

1 1/16 Miles – Dirt – Post: 1:00 PM

Race Shape: Moderate pace – advantage to tactical speed/stalkers.

• **WIN – (2) Mountain Wolf – I. Ortiz Jr. (49%)
  Class of the field on paper. Projects as a pace-controlling stalker sitting just off the early speed before taking over late. The one to beat.
• **PLACE – (6) Prototype – E. Asmussen (45%)
  Grinding stalker/closer who should sit mid-pack and make a steady run. Perfect horse to hook up underneath in exotics.
• **SHOW – (5) C. P. A. Jim – B. J. Hernandez Jr. (34%)
  More of a late grinder who will need the top two to soften each other up. Reliable board hitter.
• **JOKER – (1) Bagg O Time – J. C. Bealmear (23%)
  Rail trip and forward placement makes him the chaos candidate to crash the tri or super at a price.

Exacta: 2/6 BOX, 6/5 BOX, 5/1 BOX
Trifecta: 2/6/5 BOX, 1/6/5 BOX

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RACE 2 – Claiming – $60,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 1:29 PM

Race Shape: Honest to fast pace – speed and pressing types preferred.

• **WIN – (2) Golden Degree – I. Ortiz Jr.
  Sharp early foot, pace-presser who can sit just off the leaders and pounce. Logical chalk.
• **PLACE – (4) Titled Lady – J. L. Ortiz (39%)
  Versatile stalker who can adapt to the flow. Perfect partner for exactas with the 2.
• **SHOW – (6) Smart With Heart – C. A. Torres (26%)
  Projects as a closer picking up tired horses late; nice value underneath.
• **JOKER – (3) We’ll Do It Live – W. A. Rodriguez (24%)
  Could show more speed today; sneaky pace factor that can hang around for a piece.

Exacta: 2/4 BOX, 4/6 BOX, 6/3 BOX
Trifecta: 2/4/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

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RACE 3 – Maiden Claiming – $48,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 1:58 PM

Race Shape: Plenty of speed signed on – sets up for one strong finisher.

• **WIN – (2) Two Seven O – E. Asmussen (45%)
  Tactical stalk-and-pounce style fits perfectly behind the duel. Top pick.
• **PLACE – (4) Knickadoo – E. Esquivel (32%)
  Should be close to the early pace and fight on late. Live price.
• **SHOW – (7) Jock Frost – L. Saez (30%)
  More of a pressing style; Saez will likely put him in the race early.
• **JOKER – (8) Royal Sapphire – S. E. Bermudez (30%)
  Could sit back and close into the tiring speed; tri/super buster if the pace melts down.

Exacta: 2/4 BOX, 4/7 BOX, 7/8 BOX
Trifecta: 2/4/7 BOX, 8/4/7 BOX

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RACE 4 – Maiden Claiming – $57,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 2:27 PM

Race Shape: Fast fractions likely – wide-open if favorites get hooked.

• **WIN – (2) Miracle On Central – T. W. Bacon (43%)
  Has the profile of a stalker who sits just behind the duel and tips out turning for home.
• **PLACE – (7) Capital Connection – J. L. Ortiz (39%)
  Legit pace presence; if he clears, he could simply keep going.
• **SHOW – (1) Mandy’s Man Can – E. Esquivel (32%)
  Rail runner with inside speed; could sit pocketed and trip out.
• **JOKER – (11) Fox Creek – C. Barbosa (33%)
  Outside post gives him a late-running, sweeping trip; danger at long odds.

Exacta: 2/7 BOX, 7/1 BOX, 1/11 BOX
Trifecta: 2/7/1 BOX, 11/7/1 BOX

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RACE 5 – Claiming – $58,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 2:57 PM

Race Shape: Compact field with multiple speed types – trip will matter.

• **WIN – (2) Wonder of You – E. Asmussen (45%)
  Tactical pace-presser with enough finish to separate late. Solid win candidate.
• **PLACE – (10) Sensible Choice – T. W. Bacon (43%)
  Wide draw but has stalking speed; perfect for outside tracking trip.
• **SHOW – (4) Just an Opinion – J. L. Ortiz (39%)
  Projects as a strong late stalker, great key for exacta/tri.
• **JOKER – (8) Streaking – E. Esquivel (32%)
  Speedy type who could catch a flyer from the gate and hang on for a share.

Exacta: 2/10 BOX, 10/4 BOX, 4/8 BOX
Trifecta: 2/10/4 BOX, 8/10/4 BOX

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RACE 6 – Maiden Claiming – $72,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 3:26 PM

Race Shape: Balanced – a mix of speed and off-the-pace types.

• **WIN – (5) You’re in Heaven – I. Ortiz Jr. (49%)
  Looks like a tactical stalker with upside; best rider, best setup.
• **PLACE – (4) Rockin the Lane – T. W. Bacon (43%)
  Forwardly placed pace presser, can sit second and chase all the way.
• **SHOW – (6) Silvertown – E. Esquivel (32%)
  More of a late-running grinder who should be passing horses late.
• **JOKER – (3) Glazin’ Fury – L. Saez (30%)
  Aggressive ride likely – on or near the lead, and that always makes him dangerous.

Exacta: 5/4 BOX, 4/6 BOX, 6/3 BOX
Trifecta: 5/4/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

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RACE 7 – Maiden Special Weight – $120,000

1 Mile – Dirt – Post: 3:55 PM

Race Shape: Honest tempo – ideal for mid-pack stalkers with a late punch.

• **WIN – (8) Intangible – I. Ortiz Jr. (49%)
  Projects as a powerful stalker sitting 3rd–4th early and taking over late. Strong “A” horse.
• **PLACE – (5) Leedu – J. L. Ortiz (39%)
  Pace-presser who stays close and keeps the favorite honest. Major win threat.
• **SHOW – (10) Cearnach – L. Saez (30%)
  Outside trip but has tactical speed; could sit wide stalking trip and still hang around.
• **JOKER – (7) Summer Date – C. A. Torres (26%)
  More of a late-running type who can clunk up for a piece if the top three go too fast.

Exacta: 8/5 BOX, 5/10 BOX, 10/7 BOX
Trifecta: 8/5/10 BOX, 7/5/10 BOX

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RACE 8 – Allowance – $127,000

1 1/16 Miles – Turf – Post: 4:25 PM

Race Shape: Several want position; projects as a controlled, tactical turf race.

• **WIN – (9) Aggressive Lime – I. Ortiz Jr. (49%)
  Classic turf stalker, sits behind the leaders, explodes late. The one they all have to hold off.
• **PLACE – (8) Back Ring Buzz – J. L. Ortiz (39%)
  Pressing style with enough staying power to dig in down the lane.
• **SHOW – (5) Dame Laura – L. Saez (30%)
  Closer who will be coming late; perfect underneath key.
• **JOKER – (6) Dreaming Why – S. E. Bermudez (30%)
  Longshot deep closer – needs pace help, but can absolutely blow up the exotics.

Exacta: 9/8 BOX, 8/5 BOX, 5/6 BOX
Trifecta: 9/8/5 BOX, 6/8/5 BOX

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RACE 9 – Maiden Special Weight – $92,000

6 Furlongs – Dirt – Post: 4:55 PM

Race Shape: Hot pace up front – great spot for an off-the-pace finisher at a price.

• **WIN – (3) Slay Sadie Slay – I. Ortiz Jr. (49%)
  Looks like a stalker with a serious late punch. Perfect race flow for this one.
• **PLACE – (1) Righteous – J. L. Ortiz (39%)
  Rail horse with good gate speed, should be part of the early mix and hang around.
• **SHOW – (12) Blessed Warrior – S. Gonzalez (35%)
  Wide post but late-running style fits the expected hot pace.
• **JOKER – (6) Outlaw Empire – B. J. Hernandez Jr. (34%)
  Speedy/pressing type who could stick around longer than expected and juice the tri.

Exacta: 3/1 BOX, 1/12 BOX, 12/6 BOX
Trifecta: 3/1/12 BOX, 6/1/12 BOX

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BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 1 – (2) Mountain Wolf
Class, rider, and race shape all point the same way.

LIVE LONGSHOT / OVERLAY WATCH

Race 9 – (12) Blessed Warrior – Wide but perfectly built to take advantage of a pace collapse at a price.

If your horse is a true overlay, you bet it. If it’s an underlay, you let the crowd have it and save your bullets for the next race.

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