CHURCHILL DOWNS THOROUGHBRED TIPSHEET

Thursday, November 27, 2025
Powered by ATSstats.com – Raymond Track Report

Big, juicy 12-race program at Churchill with top-tier jockeys (Ortiz, Prat, Saez, Gaffalione) riding live mounts all day. Lots of dirt sprints/routes with a couple of classy turf and stakes features to anchor your late exotics.

As always: skip the underlays, hunt the overlays, and make the public pay for guessing.

RACE 1 – Claiming – $78,000

1 1/16 Miles – DIRT – Post: 11:30 AM

• **WIN – (6) Right On Right On – I. Ortiz Jr. (43%)
  Tactical stalker/pressing router who should sit just off the lead and get first run turning for home.
• **PLACE – (4) Malibu Springs – L. Saez (33%)
  Forward type with steady pace figures; could be the one they all have to reel in late.
• **SHOW – (3) Cool Andy – J. L. Ortiz (31%)
  Versatile stalker, fits perfectly just behind the top two and grinds on for a share.
• **JOKER – (5) Barricade – G. Saez (17%)
  Mid-pack grinder, needs a trip, but can spice up exotics if the speed gets soft late.

Recommended Wagers

• Exacta: 6/4 BOX, 4/3 BOX, 3/5 BOX
• Trifecta: 6/4/3 BOX, 5/4/3 BOX

RACE 2 – Claiming – $82,000

6 Furlongs – DIRT – Post: 11:58 AM

• **WIN – (7) Risk It – E. Asmussen (46%)
  Sharp pace-presser with enough tactical speed to sit just off the lead and finish off the race.
• **PLACE – (4) Fielding – I. Ortiz Jr. (43%)
  Stalker, figures to sit mid-pack and pounce on the turn.
• **SHOW – (5) All About Croge – A. Gomez (34%)
  Longshot closer, can clunk up for a piece if the early fractions get hot.
• **JOKER – (2) Evan On Earth – T. Gaffalione (32%)
  Speed/press type; live underlay if he shakes free early.

Recommended Wagers

• Exacta: 7/4 BOX, 4/5 BOX, 5/2 BOX
• Trifecta: 7/4/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

RACE 3 – Starter Allowance – $83,000

6 Furlongs – DIRT – Post: 12:26 PM

• **WIN – (4) Secured Lender – F. Prat (50%)
  Classy stalker/closer, fits perfectly in a race with plenty of pace to chase.
• **PLACE – (1) Pair of Socks – I. Ortiz Jr. (43%)
  Rail-drawn pace-presser; if he breaks, he can sit pocket and get every chance.
• **SHOW – (5) Just Deal – L. Saez (33%)
  Honest grinder, should be in the first flight and hang around for third money.
• **JOKER – (2) Turn Up the Trees – T. Gaffalione (32%)
  Pressing sprinter, dangerous if he tracks and pounces at the right time.

Recommended Wagers

• Exacta: 4/1 BOX, 1/5 BOX, 5/2 BOX
• Trifecta: 4/1/5 BOX, 2/1/5 BOX

RACE 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming – $134,000

1 Mile – DIRT – Post: 12:54 PM

• **WIN – (2) Fede – I. Ortiz Jr. (43%)
  Stalker/closer, should sit behind a contested pace and roll late.
• **PLACE – (4) Amarth – L. Saez (33%)
  Tough on- or near-the-lead type; if she controls the fractions, she’ll be hard to pass.
• **SHOW – (5) Quantum Burst – T. Gaffalione (32%)
  Tactical stalker, fits the race shape as a steady third-wheel type.
• **JOKER – (1) Sweet Seraphine – J. L. Ortiz (31%)
  Rail pace factor, could trip out saving all the ground and blow up the tri.

Recommended Wagers

• Exacta: 2/4 BOX, 4/5 BOX, 5/1 BOX
• Trifecta: 2/4/5 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

RACE 5 – Claiming – $62,000

7 Furlongs – DIRT – Post: 1:22 PM

• **WIN – (2) Chandon – J. McKee (41%)
  Stalker/pressing sprinter, should sit right behind the early duel and get first crack.
• **PLACE – (7) Bamtwentyklater – T. W. Bacon (38%)
  Forward pace type, likely part of the early battle and still hanging late.
• **SHOW – (9) Tempers Fly – L. Saez (33%)
  Closer, wants to sit mid-pack or farther back and come flying late.
• **JOKER – (4) Give Her Another – T. Gaffalione (32%)
  Versatile tactical runner; if Tyler finds the right lane, this one can steal the whole thing.

Recommended Wagers

• Exacta: 2/7 BOX, 7/9 BOX, 9/4 BOX
• Trifecta: 2/7/9 BOX, 4/7/9 BOX

RACE 6 – Claiming – $60,000

6½ Furlongs – DIRT – Post: 1:50 PM

• **WIN – (15) Kunshan Bridge – E. Asmussen (46%)
  Wide-drawn stalker, but with enough class and finish to overcome the post if the pace melts.
• **PLACE – (2) Proprietary Trade – I. Ortiz Jr. (43%)
  Pressing style, perfect inside draw to sit just behind the leaders and fire.
• **SHOW – (12) J J’s Joker – T. W. Bacon (38%)
  Off-the-pace sprinter, can tag along late for a share at a big price.
• **JOKER – (10) Ahumado – L. A. Hernandez (37%)
  Speed/press longshot; if the track is kind to speed, don’t leave out of deeper tickets.

Recommended Wagers

• Exacta: 15/2 BOX, 2/12 BOX, 12/10 BOX
• Trifecta: 15/2/12 BOX, 10/2/12 BOX

RACE 7 – Allowance – $148,000

5½ Furlongs – TURF – Post: 2:18 PM

• **WIN – (5) Operation Sunrise – F. Prat (50%)
  Stalk-and-pounce turf sprinter, ideal profile for today’s trip.
• **PLACE – (9) Nothing Better – I. Ortiz Jr. (43%)
  High-class pace-pressing runner, wide but dangerous with tactical speed.
• **SHOW – (3) Champlin – L. Saez (33%)
  Honest stalker, should sit just behind the big guns and hang for a piece.
• **JOKER – (2) Joe Shiesty – T. Gaffalione (32%)
  Speed horse, could clear early and make them earn it late.

Recommended Wagers

• Exacta: 5/9 BOX, 9/3 BOX, 3/2 BOX
• Trifecta: 5/9/3 BOX, 2/9/3 BOX

RACE 8 – Maiden Special Weight – $120,000

1 Mile – DIRT – Post: 2:47 PM

• **WIN – (4) Just Jules – F. Prat (50%)
  Stalker/closer, looks like the filly who will be finishing best of all.
• **PLACE – (7) La Fantastica – E. Asmussen (46%)
  Pressing style, should be in the thick of it from the jump.
• **SHOW – (9) Episist – T. Gaffalione (32%)
  Mid-pack grinder, can clunk up late for third at a nice number.
• **JOKER – (1) Aeolian – J. L. Ortiz (31%)
  Rail speed type, could wire them if left alone early.

Recommended Wagers

• Exacta: 4/7 BOX, 7/9 BOX, 9/1 BOX
• Trifecta: 4/7/9 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX

RACE 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming – $141,000

6 Furlongs – DIRT – Post: 3:16 PM

• **WIN – (4) Ellen Jay – I. Ortiz Jr. (43%)
  Strong pace-presser, should sit just off the leaders and take over in mid-stretch.
• **PLACE – (6) Tapit Quick – L. Saez (33%)
  Speedy type, will be part of the early duel and could stick for second.
• **SHOW – (8) Marmalade Skye – T. Gaffalione (32%)
  Stalker/closer, perfect for picking up pieces if the front runners soften each other.
• **JOKER – (1) Grand Job – J. L. Ortiz (31%)
  Rail pace factor, could get brave if the inside is good today.

Recommended Wagers

• Exacta: 4/6 BOX, 6/8 BOX, 8/1 BOX
• Trifecta: 4/6/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX

RACE 10 – Stakes – $400,000

1 1/8 Miles – DIRT – Post: 3:45 PM

• **WIN – (2) Raging Sea – F. Prat (50%)
  Classic stalk-and-pounce route runner, perfect for this distance and class level.
• **PLACE – (10) Regaled – J. D. Ramos (50%)
  Outside pace or press type with upside; wide but dangerous if he clears or gets position.
• **SHOW – (4) Alpine Princess – I. Ortiz Jr. (43%)
  Grinder, will keep coming and is a must-use underneath.
• **JOKER – (1) Chilled – L. Saez (33%)
  Rail speed/stalker, trip will decide everything – can blow up the tri at a price.

Recommended Wagers

• Exacta: 2/10 BOX, 10/4 BOX, 4/1 BOX
• Trifecta: 2/10/4 BOX, 1/10/4 BOX

RACE 11 – Stakes – $300,000

1 1/8 Miles – TURF – Post: 4:14 PM

• **WIN – (10) Fleetingly – F. Prat (50%)
  Late-running turf router, gets the right pilot and distance to uncork that big finish.
• **PLACE – (3) Lucky Speech – E. Asmussen (46%)
  Stalker, can sit a nice tracking trip and punch on late.
• **SHOW – (9) Vive Veuve – I. Ortiz Jr. (43%)
  Tactical stalker/press, always in the game, super reliable for exotics.
• **JOKER – (8) Pin Up Betty – L. Saez (33%)
  Forward type, could control or sit second and hang around for a piece.

Recommended Wagers

• Exacta: 10/3 BOX, 3/9 BOX, 9/8 BOX
• Trifecta: 10/3/9 BOX, 8/3/9 BOX

RACE 12 – Allowance – $127,000

6 Furlongs – DIRT – Post: 4:43 PM

• **WIN – (8) Fort Nelson – F. Prat (50%)
  Stalker/press, looks like the right horse to sit behind the duel and finish strongest.
• **PLACE – (7) Faust – E. Asmussen (46%)
  Speedy pace factor, could stick around a long time if the track is playing to front-runners.
• **SHOW – (6) Pursuitneversleeps – I. Ortiz Jr. (43%)
  Mid-pack sprinter, will be rolling late and is a strong show/tri anchor.
• **JOKER – (5) Mo Work – L. Saez (33%)
  Pressing style, can be right there all the way around and upset at a price.

Recommended Wagers

• Exacta: 8/7 BOX, 7/6 BOX, 6/5 BOX
• Trifecta: 8/7/6 BOX, 5/7/6 BOX

“BOARD WATCH” NOTES

• Ortiz Jr. & Prat are live in almost every key race – when the tote board drifts away from these profiles, that’s where the value hides.
• Look for overlays on our WIN picks that float above their fair range and JOKERS that hold firm on the board despite big morning lines.

If bettors want the full numbers game — Raymond Report value index, trainer hot lists, and “in the money” percentages — they know where to go: ATSstats.com. This is where guessing stops and structured betting starts. 🏇💰