CHURCHILL DOWNS DATA REPORT
DATE: Sunday, June 21, 2026
SLATE: 11-Race Card
POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
METRIC FOCUS: C.O.W. (Chance of Winning), Jockey Win %, Trainer ITM %
Clinical analysis of the Sunday program at Churchill Downs. High-volume data sets indicate significant value in mid-card longshots and late-card favorites. Our Artificial Intelligence Picks League (AIPL) models emphasize jockey efficiency and historical surface performance.
Trust our Data. Beat Their Odds.
TOP 5 BETTING OPTIONS (RAYMOND REPORT)
- RACE 9: (8) Bold Strength (7-5 ML) – Highest Probability Index.
- RACE 1: (3) Rugged Love (3-1 ML) – Peak Jockey/Trainer synergy.
- RACE 2: (6) Raising Kane (8-1 ML) – Significant value overlay vs. (1) Gardiner.
- RACE 8: (4) Sinatra (15-1 ML) – Elite Jockey Win % (36%).
- RACE 11: (9) Silver Sniper (20-1 ML) – Maximum Value Longshot.
RACE #1: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
POST TIME: 12:45 PM – 7 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)
C.O.W. (CHANCE OF WINNING) ANALYSIS: BULLISH (Grade A)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 3-1 | (3) Rugged Love | T Gaffalione (29%) |
| PLACE | 20-1 | (2) Grind | J A Torres (25%) |
| SHOW | 7-2 | (6) The Hund | L Saez (23%) |
| JOKER | 6-1 | (7) Flick | A Concepcion (23%) |
- INSIGHT: Rugged Love brings the highest win percentage jockey (Gaffalione) into a high-leverage maiden spot. Trainer ITM (In The Money) percentages favor 2, 7, 1, and 6.
- EXACTA: 3/2 BOX, 2/6 BOX, 6/7 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 3/2/6 BOX, 7/2/6 BOX
RACE #2: CLAIMING
POST TIME: 01:15 PM – 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)
SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL (Grade B)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 8-1 | (6) Raising Kane | K J Asmussen (31%) |
| PLACE | 4-5 | (1) Gardiner | J L Ortiz (28%) |
| SHOW | 10-1 | (2) Curlin’s Gesture | T Gaffalione (29%) |
| JOKER | 6-1 | (7) Slim Slow Slider | J A Torres (25%) |
- INSIGHT: Heavy favorite (1) Gardiner (4-5) is vulnerable to (6) Raising Kane (8-1) based on Asmussen’s recent 31% win rate.
- EXACTA: 6/1 BOX, 1/2 BOX, 2/7 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 6/1/2 BOX, 7/1/2 BOX
RACE #3: MAIDEN CLAIMING
POST TIME: 01:44 PM – 5 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)
SENTIMENT: BULLISH (Grade A-)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 5-2 | (10) Stealing the Show | I Ortiz, Jr. (31%) |
| PLACE | 10-1 | (3) Crowning Victoria | K J Asmussen (31%) |
| SHOW | 10-1 | (8) Lumberjill | T Gaffalione (29%) |
| JOKER | 8-1 | (2) Lily’s Revenge | J A Torres (25%) |
- INSIGHT: Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard the (10) establishes a strong baseline. Trainers with best ITM: 10, 3, 7, 5.
- EXACTA: 10/3 BOX, 3/8 BOX, 8/2 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 10/3/8 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX
RACE #4: MAIDEN CLAIMING
POST TIME: 02:15 PM – 1 1/16 MILES (TURF)
SENTIMENT: BEARISH (Value Hunt)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 15-1 | (3) Blackwing | F Arrieta (33%) |
| PLACE | 6-1 | (11) Lightning Run | I Ortiz, Jr. (31%) |
| SHOW | 15-1 | (10) Little Bit Angel | B J Hernandez, Jr. (31%) |
| JOKER | 3-1 | (4) Daring Madison | J L Ortiz (28%) |
- INSIGHT: High-value pick (3) Blackwing at 15-1 carries Arrieta (33% win rate). Major upset potential against the chalk.
- EXACTA: 3/11 BOX, 11/10 BOX, 10/4 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 3/11/10 BOX, 4/11/10 BOX
RACE #5: STARTER ALLOWANCE
POST TIME: 02:47 PM – 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)
SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL (Grade B)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 7-2 | (5) Petoskey Stones | I Ortiz, Jr. (31%) |
| PLACE | 15-1 | (7) Il Cavallino | B J Hernandez, Jr. (31%) |
| SHOW | 8-1 | (4) Izzy d’Oro | E Esquivel (29%) |
| JOKER | 6-1 | (3) Bourbon Flight | J L Ortiz (28%) |
- INSIGHT: (5) Petoskey Stones has the tactical advantage. Trainers 5 and 10 lead ITM rankings.
- EXACTA: 5/7 BOX, 7/4 BOX, 4/3 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 5/7/4 BOX, 3/7/4 BOX
RACE #6: CLAIMING
POST TIME: 03:19 PM – 6 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)
SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL (Grade B-)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 4-1 | (6) Curahee | M Gutierrez (28%) |
| PLACE | 5-1 | (4) Nabokov | T Gaffalione (29%) |
| SHOW | 8-1 | (10) Invulnerable | C A Torres (26%) |
| JOKER | 8-1 | (8) Osbourne | J R Leparoux (27%) |
- INSIGHT: Open field. (6) Curahee preferred in a sprint that favors early speed.
- EXACTA: 6/4 BOX, 4/10 BOX, 10/8 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 6/4/10 BOX, 8/4/10 BOX
RACE #7: CLAIMING
POST TIME: 03:53 PM – 1 MILE (TURF)
SENTIMENT: BULLISH (Grade A)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 4-1 | (1) Raconteuse | F Arrieta (33%) |
| PLACE | 15-1 | (4) Got Gone | A Achard (31%) |
| SHOW | 3-1 | (9) Back Ring Buzz | T Gaffalione (29%) |
| JOKER | 9-2 | (10) Plot | C A Torres (26%) |
- INSIGHT: (1) Raconteuse has the rail and the hot hand in Arrieta. Trainers 1 and 9 are the sharpest in the field.
- EXACTA: 1/4 BOX, 4/9 BOX, 9/10 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 10/4/9 BOX
RACE #8: MAIDEN CLAIMING
POST TIME: 04:25 PM – 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)
SENTIMENT: BEARISH (Extreme Value)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 15-1 | (4) Sinatra | S Pauly (36%) |
| PLACE | 4-1 | (10) Captain Mercury | I Ortiz, Jr. (31%) |
| SHOW | 8-1 | (1) Tapcon | K J Asmussen (31%) |
| JOKER | 5-1 | (5) D Bigalow | M Gutierrez (28%) |
- INSIGHT: Longshot Alert. (4) Sinatra at 15-1 is paired with the highest percentage jockey on the card (Pauly, 36%). This is a data-driven mispricing by the morning line.
- EXACTA: 4/10 BOX, 10/1 BOX, 1/5 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 4/10/1 BOX, 5/10/1 BOX
RACE #9: ALLOWANCE
POST TIME: 04:56 PM – 7 FURLONGS (DIRT)
SENTIMENT: BULLISH (Grade A+)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 7-5 | (8) Bold Strength | I Ortiz, Jr. (31%) |
| PLACE | 6-1 | (5) Timing Difference | B J Hernandez, Jr. (31%) |
| SHOW | 5-1 | (1) Only Phil | J L Ortiz (28%) |
| JOKER | 8-1 | (6) Gamblers Tail | T Gaffalione (29%) |
- INSIGHT: Heavy favorite (8) Bold Strength is the anchor for multi-race wagers. Top Trainer ITM: 8, 2, 3, 4.
- EXACTA: 8/5 BOX, 5/1 BOX, 1/6 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 8/5/1 BOX, 6/5/1 BOX
RACE #10: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
POST TIME: 05:28 PM – 5 1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)
SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL (Grade B)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 12-1 | (4) Sanctify | F Arrieta (33%) |
| PLACE | 3-1 | (7) Sadie Earp | I Ortiz, Jr. (31%) |
| SHOW | 2-1 | (6) Dangherecomesshang | J L Ortiz (28%) |
| JOKER | 7-2 | (9) Cloe | T Gaffalione (29%) |
- INSIGHT: (4) Sanctify offers double-digit value with Arrieta (33%). Target the 4/7/6 trifecta for maximum yield.
- EXACTA: 4/7 BOX, 7/6 BOX, 6/9 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 4/7/6 BOX, 9/7/6 BOX
RACE #11: MAIDEN CLAIMING
POST TIME: 05:59 PM – 1 MILE (DIRT)
SENTIMENT: BEARISH (Value Finale)
| PICK ORDER | M/L | HORSE NAME | JOCKEY (WIN %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | 20-1 | (9) Silver Sniper | F Arrieta (33%) |
| PLACE | 10-1 | (2) Meanstepper | E A Roman (31%) |
| SHOW | 15-1 | (8) Bedeviled | K J Asmussen (31%) |
| JOKER | 15-1 | (11) Culper Code | E Esquivel (29%) |
- INSIGHT: Closing the card with massive value. (9) Silver Sniper at 20-1 is the play of the day for vertical bettors. Arrieta maintains a 33% efficiency rate into the finale.
- EXACTA: 9/2 BOX, 2/8 BOX, 8/11 BOX
- TRIFECTA: 9/2/8 BOX, 11/2/8 BOX
DATA SUMMARY
Churchill Downs on Sunday features an unusual concentration of high-win-percentage jockeys on mid-to-longshot horses. Arrieta (33%) and Pauly (36%) represent significant statistical advantages over the current morning lines. Bettors are advised to focus on the Jockey/Trainer ITM synergies identified in the modules above.
For more detailed stats, analytics, and predictions, visit ATS Stats.
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