RAYMOND REPORT | GRIDIRON GOLD | SEPTEMBER 3, 2026
Get the quick-read Raymond Report for today’s slate, featuring key ATS STATS matchup angles, relevant trends and the Raymond Report Computer Forecast for each game.
AKRON at WAKE FOREST
Wake Forest enters as a 24.5-point home favorite with early-season value metrics favoring the Demon Deacons, who project a 55.98 percent win probability versus Akron’s 41.63 percent. However, Akron’s Market Spread Value of 8.67 against the posted plus-24.5 suggests the Zips carry relative underdog value. A key availability concern: Akron quarterback Reese Poffenbarger is listed as questionable heading into kickoff.
Trend analysis presents conflicting signals. The Under is 3-7 when Akron plays road games with a total at 48.5 over the past decade, suggesting scoring headwinds for the visiting Zips. Conversely, Wake Forest is 9-2 straight-up at home against non-division foes over the last six seasons. The Raymond Report Computer Forecast projects Wake Forest 27.97, Akron 23.29, with a displayed total of 51.26: modestly higher than the posted 48.5, indicating an Over lean.
Wake Forest’s projected win probability and home-field edge align with the computer forecast, but the elevated spread carries early-season uncertainty, particularly around quarterback availability for Akron.
Forecast: Wake Forest 27.97 – Akron 23.29
ILLINOIS at ALABAMA BIRMINGHAM
Illinois enters as a 27.5-point home favorite against Alabama Birmingham, but the Market Spread Value readings suggest significant overvaluation. Illinois MSV stands at minus-3 against the minus-27.5 line, while Alabama Birmingham’s MSV of 11.83 against plus-27.5 indicates the Blazers possess value at that spread. Early-season win probability metrics show Illinois at 55.98 percent and Alabama Birmingham at 41.63 percent: a modest gap compared to the posted spread.
The Raymond Report Computer Forecast projects Illinois 27.97, Alabama Birmingham 23.29, roughly a four-point margin well below the 27.5-point spread. The projected game total of 51.26 leans Under against the posted 55.5. Alabama Birmingham shows ATS strength on the road, posting 8-4 against-the-spread over the past five Septembers, while Illinois is 10-1 straight-up at home against non-division opponents over four years.
Illinois possesses statistical home advantage and historical winning pedigree, but the 27.5-point spread exceeds both win models and computer projections, suggesting value concerns for the favorite.
Forecast: Illinois 27.97 – Alabama Birmingham 23.29
BUFFALO vs ALBANY
Buffalo hosts Albany as a 23.5-point home favorite with a 48.5 total, but Market Spread Value metrics reveal potential mispricing. Buffalo’s MSV of 2.7 against the minus-23.5 line suggests the home favorite isn’t receiving full value, while Albany’s MSV of 13.5 against plus-23.5 indicates the underdog is priced wider than underlying data supports. Buffalo’s Chances of Winning projects 55.98 percent versus Albany’s 41.63 percent: a more modest probability gap than the market’s 23-point spread implies.
The Raymond Report Computer Forecast projects Buffalo 27.97, Albany 23.29, with a displayed total of 51.26 versus the posted 48.5, suggesting an Over lean. Buffalo enters Week One with established program credentials, while Albany brings no current-season tape to the matchup.
Buffalo is favored for sound reasons, but the MSV data and computer forecast together suggest the market may be pricing in a home blowout scenario beyond statistical support.
Forecast: Buffalo 27.97 – Albany 23.29
COLORADO at GEORGIA TECH
Colorado travels to Bobby Dodd Stadium as a 6.5-point underdog, with early-season value metrics suggesting potential underdog value. Colorado’s Market Spread Value of 10.87 as a plus-6.5 road underdog indicates statistical support for the underdog side, while Georgia Tech’s MSV of minus-3.83 as the minus-6.5 favorite suggests modest overvaluation. The Chances of Winning favors Georgia Tech at 55.98 percent to Colorado’s 41.63 percent, a tighter margin than the posted spread.
The Raymond Report Computer Forecast projects Georgia Tech 27.97, Colorado 23.29, with the displayed total of 51.26 leaning Over against the posted 50.5. Colorado carries historical strength as a road underdog, posting a 10-2 straight-up record when facing zero-to-three-point spreads since 1996. Georgia Tech is 7-3 straight-up at home over the past two years, providing solid home-field support.
The evidence balances in favor of Colorado’s underdog value and historical road record against Georgia Tech’s home-field advantage and computer projection supporting the favorite.
Forecast: Georgia Tech 27.97 – Colorado 23.29
UTAH vs IDAHO
Utah hosts Idaho as a 34.5-point home favorite with a 57.5 total, presenting significant value concerns. Market Spread Value analysis shows Utah at minus-19.75 compared to the posted minus-34.5, a substantial gap indicating the market is pricing Utah well above what the model supports. Idaho’s MSV of plus-1.5 against the plus-34.5 spread suggests minimal underdog value despite the wide margin. Chances of Winning metrics show Utah at 55.98 percent versus Idaho’s 41.63 percent: far closer than the posted spread indicates.
The Raymond Report Computer Forecast projects Utah 27.97, Idaho 23.29, with a displayed total of 51.26 strongly leaning Under against the posted 57.5. Utah boasts a 21-game straight-up winning streak at home on Thursday since 1996, a powerful historical advantage. Idaho shows ATS credibility on the road, posting 8-3 against-the-spread against non-division opponents over five years.
Utah’s heavy 34.5-point spread appears steeper than underlying performance gaps suggest, and the computer’s strong Under lean adds caution to the posted total.
Forecast: Utah 27.97 – Idaho 23.29
MASSACHUSETTS at RUTGERS
Rutgers enters as a heavy 29.5-point home favorite, but the matchup reveals a notable disconnect between market pricing and analytical projections. The Raymond Report Computer Forecast projects Rutgers winning 27.97 to 23.29: just a four-point margin: compared to the nearly 30-point spread being asked. Rutgers checks in at 55.98 percent Chances of Winning while Massachusetts sits at 41.63 percent, tighter odds than the posted line suggests.
Market Spread Value tells the story: Rutgers shows only 4.83 MSV against minus-29.5, indicating minimal edge for laying such heavy chalk at home. Meanwhile, Massachusetts carries 29.59 MSV as a plus-29.5 road underdog, representing substantial value. Rutgers owns an 11-2 straight-up September home record over the last five years, a strong historical advantage. The projected total of 51.26 leans slightly under the posted 51.5.
The conflict is clear: Rutgers is the better team and favored to win, but the massive spread appears overpriced relative to the computer’s projected four-point margin. From a value standpoint, taking the points with Massachusetts makes stronger mathematical sense than laying nearly 30 at home.
Forecast: Rutgers 27.97 – Massachusetts 23.29
WEST GEORGIA at KENNESAW STATE
Kennesaw State opens at home as a 23.5-point favorite in this non-conference matchup, but the computer model suggests the gap is considerably tighter. The Raymond Report Computer Forecast gives Kennesaw State 55.98 percent Chances of Winning versus West Georgia’s 41.63 percent: comparable to the Massachusetts-Rutgers matchup despite a significantly larger posted spread.
The key metric is Kennesaw State’s Market Spread Value of minus-2.55, indicating the computer sees the Owls favored by roughly 21 points rather than 23.5. West Georgia’s minus-15.5 MSV suggests the road underdog carries value at plus-23.5. The computer projects Kennesaw State 27.97, West Georgia 23.29: again a narrow margin. The projected total of 51.26 sits slightly beneath the posted 51.5, leaning toward the Under. With both teams opening their seasons this week, there is no current-sample form to evaluate.
The Owls are favored at home, but spread value metrics indicate their edge is narrower than the market line suggests.
Forecast: Kennesaw State 27.97 – West Georgia 23.29
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