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Reply To: MLB 2015

Home Forums ATS Klondike MLB 2015 Reply To: MLB 2015

#4216

Just did some number crunching based off your No Rest system:

Last 5 years overall Home Team win % is 53.77%

Last 5 years, home teams playing their first game after a 9+ game road trip:

No filters: 54.2%
1 Day off: 58% (maybe bet on these teams?)
0 Days off: 52.5% (maybe limit your system to only teams with 0 days off)

Coming off a WIN:

1 Day off: 58%
0 Days off: 51.5% (Looks good for a fade)

Coming off a LOSS:

1 Day off: 58%
0 Days off: 53.33% (Right about even with the 5 year average)

So I calculated how you’d do if you faded Home Teams coming off 9+ game road trips on 0 days rest who won their previous game (over the last 5 years):

48-51 for +2.78u

But if you filter out the road teams to only include road underdogs of +135 or greater it goes up to

16-15 for +10.90u

Although this is somewhat profitable, there’s only been 31 plays over the past 5 years so is it even worth tracking?

I’d like to see what you guys think of these numbers!