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Reply To: MLB 2015

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#4547

ATS Staff Writer
Participant

When I look at underdog games that are +110 or more, 8-5 since Apr 20th.

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It’s rare that an underdog rises to the top in our systems. Most of our picks are chalk or low dogs near PK.

So when we do scrape a pick that is priced as a dog…there is auto-value on it because Vegas won’t have capped for the historical advantage, not on the level that we do, and secondly, there is every possibility that these dogs would be priced PK if not for people betting chalk like crazy.

Also, let’s look at something else…(the idea that prompted this whole thing about underdogs)…

Right now I’m 9-18. L27G.
2 of those losses were Underdogs above +110.
2 of those losses were Underdogs below +110 (near PK)
14 of those losses were CHALK.

Also look at this as well…

If Tyson A lives in a small town in Colorado (5 million people)
and Tyson B lives in California (38 million people)

Even though they’re clones and the true value is perfect PK…

The books will HAVE to price this at about -135 / +125.

Simply because of the betting bias.

There are TONS of reasons why teams are priced chalk, and the most significant factor, (money), has nothing to do with a team’s chances of winning.

Another example:

Martingale bettors. And I’ve seen this time and time again.

A team wins 7 straight. To me and you, a unit is a unit.
To a martingale bettor, they could have started with a $100 bet and doubled to a $2800 deficit. Now that 8th game has those bettors wagering $5600 on a team not to win for an 8th time in a row.

Imagine what that does to a line!

In fact, I think I’m willing to bet that anytime a Mega-Metropolis is playing against a team that has won 5 straight or more, or when a Mega-Metropolis that’s lost 5 straight or more, that there is no way for Vegas to cover the action without severely deflating the team belonging to the mega-metropolis.

But be that as it may, Underdogs win FAR TOO OFTEN, especially lately, for us to think that betting chalk is a good idea.

I’m going to get on ATS and crunch some numbers for the month of May. This might be a “time of year” thing.

But no matter the case, I’m not betting another team as chalk until this fad disintegrates because it’s SLAYING my bankroll! LOL.