It’s near impossible to profit long term betting chalk in MLB. I recently went back and looked at my historic bets back until April 2014 (when i first started online betting). From April 2014 till March 2015 I was almost only betting chalk or pk games because I was uneducated and assumed that meant they were supposed to win, and assumed they would win. From March 2015 till now, I’ve been betting 90% underdogs. With that said, while betting favorites I’m down ~425 units over the year, for an ROI of -7.1%. Since I started betting dogs and being more of a handicapper, I’m up ~90 units in 2 months for an ROI of 11.5%.
This numbers are a little bit skewed because I’m actually doing research now and not just blindly betting, but based on my personal results and everything I’ve read from the hours and hours of research, betting dogs is highly profitable and much more effective than betting favorites.