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Reply To: MLB 2015

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ATS Staff Writer

Maybe this is a good time to talk about VALUE.


PK at Pinnacle varies, but for NYY@OAK, PK is -104 / -104.

-104 / -104 is a useless designation as math cannot be applied.

We have to convert it to decimal.

-104 / -104 in American odds is the same as 1.96 / 1.96 in Decimal odds.

So now we can begin to calculate value here.

Tyson A is fighting Tyson B. They are clones and there is a 50/50 chance of either one winning. Tyson A’s chances are 50%. Tyson B’s chances are 50%.

Pinnacle has set the fight at PK.

0.50 * 1.96 = 0.98

That “0.98” expresses what percentage of your money you get back if your wager wins.

In this case, at Pinnacles vig, the books collect 2%.

Other books will have it as high as 5% on the exact same fight.
But that’s called “book shopping” and that’s a new discussion for another time.

OK. So if Tyson A was paying 2.00, then you would break even.

So to sum it up, real simply, you take the PERCENTAGE OF THEIR CHANCE OF WINNING and you multiply it by the DECIMAL ODDS, and if the number is at lease 1.01 or higher then there is value with the bet.

REMEMBER, 101% return could also be stated as 1% profit.

DO NOT misunderstand this point!

Remember we said it was 50/50 to win because they’re clones right?

So then if they fight TWICE….at 50% odds to win, Tyson A will LOSE that second fight, all things equal.

But that’s what we’re saying, so long as we’re tracking the odds, so long as we’re not betting anything under a 1.00 return, we won’t be losing any money and even though we WIN ONE and LOSE ONE, we’re still up that 1% because we know what value means and exactly how to calculate.

The truth is, THIS is what sports handicapping really actually is.
The truth is, THIS is what distinguishes the gamblers from the handicappers.

SPORTS HANDICAPPING: The process of establishing and compiling the most precise and relevant facts that will BEST illuminate a teams CHANCES OF WINNING, stated in percent, so that that percentage figure can be calculated into a numeral VALUE assessment based on the ODDS given.

Really. That’s what it is.

The TRICKY part here…is the question of WHICH FACTS QUALIFY??

You have a team that NEVER won on the road yet…against a team that NEVER won at home yet.

You have a team that is 33% on the road for the season, and a pitcher that’s won 33% of his starts.

You have an Umpire that has a large strike zone and his games go UNDER the total 65% of the time, but you have 2 of the strongest hitting teams playing, each with their worst pitchers starting the game and bullpens that have issues.

It’s crazyness. It really is.

If you find the relevant factors, you will eat for life.

When you look at the Slaughter Play System….

That’s actually ROCK SOLID Handicapping.

Very very righteous Handicapping.

When you look at some of the 66% systems we’ve uncovered for early season MLB using ATSSTATS, same thing. Some very solid stats there.

All we’re really here to find out is:

Is a 66% system simply luck? Does it frequently and unpredictably shift? (Useless)

Is a 66% system ‘time-of-season’ specific? Can it be depended on for that particular period of the season?

Is a 66% system steady and rock-solid through the year as a static “go-to” consideration?
(Extremely Useful)

Is a 66% system steady and rock-solid through the year as a static “go-to” consideration no matter what team it’s applied to?
(Ultimately useful)

Is a 66% system steady and rock-solid through the year as a static “go-to” consideration no matter what team or sport it’s applied to?
(Ultimately Extremely Useful)

That is what value is.
That is what handicapping is.
That is the name of the game.