Betting on the Belmonts Stakes 2025: Which Horses Have the Best Odds?

The 157th running of the Belmont Stakes, set for Saturday, June 7, 2025, promises a thrilling finale to this year’s Triple Crown series. But 2025 is no ordinary year, not only is the Belmont being hosted at Saratoga Race Course for the second time in history due to ongoing renovations at Belmont Park, but the race itself will also be shorter than usual, clocking in at 1 1⁄4 miles instead of the traditional 1 1⁄2. This seemingly minor change is a seismic shift in bettors’ and racing fans’ evaluation of contenders.

With no Triple Crown on the line this year, the Belmont Stakes still offers plenty of drama: a Kentucky Derby winner seeking redemption, a Preakness victor fighting to solidify his stardom, and a deep field of talented three-year-olds poised to play spoiler.

Sovereignty

Sovereignty, the reigning Kentucky Derby champion, enters the 2025 Belmont Stakes with a distinct strategic advantage: rest and readiness.

His connections opted to skip the Preakness Stakes, a move that raised eyebrows at the time but now appears calculated and deliberate. The decision gave Sovereignty five weeks to recover and prepare specifically for Belmont’s unique demands at Saratoga Race Course. With a shorter distance this year and a different track layout, the benefits of a good rest could be decisive.

Known for his powerful late kick, Sovereignty is a true closer who thrives in fast-paced races. The projected early speed in the Belmont could set up perfectly for his running style, allowing him to settle off the pace and make a decisive move in the stretch.

His recent workout, an easy half-mile in 49.76 seconds at the Oklahoma training track, suggests he’s physically ready and thriving in Saratoga. Under the guidance of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, Sovereignty entered the Belmont as a logical favorite and a formidable opponent for any challenger hoping to deny him a second jewel of the Triple Crown.

In Belmont Stakes betting, it’s important to choose a horse with proven performance, peak conditioning, and a race setup that plays to its strengths. The clear favorite combines all these factors, making it the key contender bettors are focused on. Sovereignty sets the tone for the race and heavily influences how the odds move, so smart bettors keep a close eye on it to make informed wagers.

Journalism

No horse in the 2025 Belmont Stakes field carries more intrigue—or momentum—than Journalism. After a valiant second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, where he closed with authority but came up just short of Sovereignty, Journalism recovered with a thrilling victory in the Preakness Stakes.

In that race, he surged from mid-pack with a powerful late rally to capture the win by 1½ lengths. His final time of 1:55.47 over 1 3/16 miles and his impressive 98 Beyer Speed Figure underscored his raw ability and tenacity under pressure.  In back-to-back Triple Crown appearances, he proved consistent and capable of adapting to different race dynamics. But, with two grueling races in just five weeks, the question is whether or not Journalism can recover and fire one more peak performance at Saratoga.

His trainer, Michael McCarthy, and connections are proceeding with caution. While they are eager to avenge their narrow Derby defeat and build on his growing legacy, the colt’s health and readiness will ultimately determine whether he enters the starting gate.

Should he run, all eyes will turn to what could be a classic rematch between Journalism and Sovereignty, each with one jewel of the Triple Crown to their name. With the Belmont shortened to 1¼ miles this year, Journalism may find the distance more forgiving than the traditional 1½-mile “Test of the Champion.” His demonstrated stamina, mental toughness, and finishing power make him a formidable threat.

Baeza

Baeza enters the 2025 Belmont Stakes as one of the most quietly dangerous contenders in the field. After delivering a strong third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, he bypassed the Preakness Stakes to rest and regroup, which could pay significant dividends given the condensed Triple Crown schedule and the taxing nature of those races.

Now coming into the Belmont fresh and well-prepared, Baeza has the tactical speed and composure to be a serious factor. His preferred running style—sitting just off the leaders—should suit Saratoga’s shorter 1¼-mile layout, especially with its tighter turns and quicker pace.

What sets Baeza apart is his performance and the man behind his conditioning. Trainer John Shirreffs is a master of preparation, best known for guiding the legendary Zenyatta and Kentucky Derby upsetter Giacomo. Under his careful guidance, Baeza has steadily matured and improved throughout the spring.

With a blend of class, pedigree, and experience at the highest level, this colt has all the tools needed to take a significant step forward at Saratoga. For bettors searching for a strong alternative to the race favorites, Baeza represents an enticing value play capable of springing a mild upset and stealing the spotlight on Belmont day.

Rodriguez

Rodriguez may be making his first appearance in the Triple Crown series at the Belmont Stakes, but he’s anything but an outsider. This talented colt burst onto the scene with an eye-catching win in the Wood Memorial, a key Derby prep that often produces high-caliber horses.

Rather than pushing him into the Kentucky Derby or Preakness, trainer Bob Baffert deliberately kept Rodriguez on the sidelines, pointing specifically to the Belmont Stakes. That fresh approach mirrors the strategy used by Sovereignty’s team and could be a significant advantage, especially against rivals who have already endured tough races this spring.

Rodriguez, a natural front-runner with a long, fluid stride, can seize the lead early and dictate the pace. At a track like Saratoga, where tactical speed and positioning are often decisive, that could make him very difficult to catch. Add in the Baffert factor—his uncanny ability to peak horses for the biggest races—and Rodriguez becomes a serious threat to steal the race from the front.

As a fresh, lightly campaigned contender with legitimate credentials and elite connections, he’s arguably the most intriguing “new shooter” in the field and a live play for bettors looking beyond the usual suspects.

Hill Road

Hill Road comes into the 2025 Belmont Stakes as a strong contender with solid recent form. His win in the Peter Pan Stakes, a key prep for the Belmont, showed he can compete at this level. It was a decisive victory, demonstrating tactical speed and the stamina needed for a longer race. With that performance under his belt, Hill Road has earned his place in this field.

Trainer Chad Brown, one of the top conditioners in the sport, has Hill Road right where he wants him. Brown is based in New York and knows Saratoga well, which gives this colt a bit of a home-track advantage. Hill Road’s running style—stalking just behind the leaders—matches well with Saratoga’s shorter configuration and faster pace. He’s fresh, improving, and in capable hands.

For bettors seeking value beyond the favorites, Hill Road represents a compelling choice. With his freshness, upward trajectory, and skilled handling, he has the potential to deliver a standout performance on race day. His profile suggests he’s not just a filler in the field but a genuine threat capable of influencing the race outcome and paying dividends to those who back him wisely.

Final Stretch

The 2025 Belmont Stakes offers a wide-open field with no clear Triple Crown winner, making it a great betting opportunity. With the race shortened to 1¼ miles and held at Saratoga, early speed and race position will be more critical than usual.

Sovereignty is a firm favorite coming in fresh from his Derby win, while Journalism brings momentum after a gutsy Preakness victory. Baeza has had time to rest and improve, and both Rodriguez and Hill Road offer value as fresh, well-prepared contenders. Watch for updates on workouts and final entries, and place your bets wisely—this Belmont could come down to the final stride.