Chasing the names everyone else picks is easy. It is also predictable and that kills value. The smarter angle comes from looking at hitters who are not in the headlines but show the right signals underneath.
These are the kinds of players that give bettors an edge. In home run markets, that edge often shows up in the data, and that is where the real search begins.
Metrics That Expose Hidden Sluggers
Raw home run totals matter, but power metrics are more predictive. HR to fly ball rate (HR/FB), barrel rate, hard‐hit percentage, exit velocity, and launch angles all tell a sharper story about power potential. Hitters with strong batted-ball metrics but below-average HR/FB often end up underrated.
Preseason benchmarks from FanGraphs suggested that hitters with at least 300 plate appearances averaged around 11.6% HR/FB. That figure served as a useful starting point, though league averages shift during the season. Players who consistently exceed that level usually point to real power upside.
Ballpark dimensions and lineup support also play a big role. A fly ball hitter in a deep park often loses home runs to the warning track. That same hitter in a smaller park with a productive lineup around him can turn those swings into more homers.
For bettors, these kinds of metrics are what make the difference when evaluating updated home run props and hitting prop bets. Keeping a close eye on the data allows sharper calls in MLB home run bets, where value often comes from players the market has not fully priced in yet.
Productive Sluggers Still Flying Below Value
Some players already display strong underlying metrics but remain undervalued in HR markets. Take Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners. As of early September, Raleigh’s 53 HRs make him the MLB leader this season and the record holder for most home runs by a primary catcher in a single year. Analysts pointed to his slugging metrics and exit velocity as reasons to expect continued growth, and he has delivered one of the most dominant power seasons in the league.
Another name to watch is Yainer Diaz of the Houston Astros. As of early September, he has 19 home runs this season, with steady playing time boosting his profile.
Analysts believe his barrel rates and hard-hit profile show that there could be even more upside to unlock. While he is not yet viewed as an elite power hitter, his performance makes him a legitimate threat when overlooked by the market.
Which Undervalued Picks Are Worth the Gamble
Not every sleeper turns into a winning play. Risks like injuries, inconsistent plate discipline, or reduced playing time cut into home run totals even when the metrics look strong.
When weighing a gamble, the key is stability. Is the hard-hit percentage holding steady month after month? Are home runs supported by walk rates and solid contact? Checking the upcoming schedule also matters. Parks that play small and opponents with weaker pitching staffs can give hitters a short-term boost.
Undervalued players become strong bets when these pieces line up. A hitter with an above-average HR/FB rate but limited usage can break out if regular playing time arrives. Raleigh, for instance, has shown that his power holds up regardless of environment, and when the lineup around him is producing, his chances for long balls increase even further.
Hot Bats Still Flying Under Many Radars
Hot bats can still slip under the radar even deep into the season. Elly De La Cruz is a prime example. As of early September, De La Cruz has hit 19 home runs this season and 57 in his career. His metrics (hard-hit percentage near 43.8%, average exit velocity around 90.8 mph, and barrel rate about 10.4%) suggest power upside.
He is not yet matching the raw power numbers of the league’s elite, but the signs are there. That perception can lead markets to undervalue his home run ceiling.
Julio Rodríguez provides another case. On August 3, 2025, Rodríguez earned his 100th career home run, becoming the first player in MLB history to begin his career with four consecutive 20-HR and 20-SB seasons.
His rare combination of strength and speed makes him stand out. Because his profile leans toward speed, markets sometimes overlook how consistent his power totals have been.
Bettors and analysts can take these breakout signs and match them with current market shifts. With FanDuel’s Latest MLB Game Insights, the focus is on odds, picks, and betting analysis that point to undervalued spots.
From Quiet Bats to Big Headlines
Undervalued hitters today can become the headline names of next season. Spotting them early not only creates short-term gains but also builds the kind of sharp vision that pays off over time. The long game in home run markets belongs to those who can see past the obvious.
