Categories: MLB

MLB Betting Insights: The Power of Home Favorites vs C-Rated Bearish Teams

New York Yankees' Gary Sanchez, left, celebrates with teammate Mike Tauchman after they scored on a two-run home run by Sanchez during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Boston Red Sox Friday, Aug. 14, 2020, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

When it comes to Major League Baseball betting, one of the most profitable yet overlooked angles is backing home favorites against C-rated teams with a Bearish Value Index. According to the Raymond Report data, this situational spot has shown a consistent edge for savvy bettors.

Let’s dig into the numbers:

From the start of the 2024 season through April 20th, 2025, when any MLB team played at home as a favorite against a C-rated, Bearish opponent, the results were impressive:

Straight-Up (SU) Record: 200 Wins – 100 Losses (66.6% Win Rate)
Over/Under Record: 122 Overs – 163 Unders – 15 Pushes

This trend reveals two critical betting insights:

1. Home Favorites Are Cashing

Average Money Line: -201.75
Average Home Score: 4.69 runs
Average Road Score: 3.61 runs

Bettors are paying a premium on the money line, but it’s justified by a strong win percentage and a healthy average margin of victory (+1.08 runs).

2. Unders Are Quietly Dominating

Average Game Total: 8.19
With 163 Unders in 300 games, the Under is hitting at 54.3%, showing that oddsmakers may be slightly overestimating offensive output in these matchups.

Key Takeaway

When a strong home favorite hosts a C-rated Bearish squad, the numbers speak volumes. The SU win rate justifies the chalk, and the Under trends offer a secondary angle for total bettors looking for value.

Betting Strategy

Money Line Parlays: Pairing two or three of these qualifying home favorites can help reduce juice while increasing payout potential.
Team Totals: Consider fading the road team’s total, especially if the visiting offense is in a slump.
Full Game Unders: With pitchers often in control and weaker lineups on the road, the Under has proven to be a solid contrarian play.

Stay locked into the Raymond Report at ATS STATS for daily situational breakdowns like this, and give yourself the edge that turns good bets into great wins.

Visit: www.atsstats.com

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Ron Raymond

Ron Raymond is a well-known sports handicapper who runs ATS Stats and the Raymond REPORT. He has over 21 years of experience in the industry and provides expert analysis and predictions for various sports, including football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.