MLB Betting Preview – Diamondbacks vs. Braves (June 5, 2025)

📍 Truist Park, 12:15 PM ET
🎯 Line: ATL -1.5 (-162) | O/U: 9

Two struggling clubs wrap up a weekday matinee with the Arizona Diamondbacks sending Brandon Pfaadt to the bump against Atlanta’s Grant Holmes. Both teams are 3-4 SU in these starters last 7 starts, but that’s about where the similarities end.

---

🐍 Diamondbacks Outlook (30-31 SU, 29-30-2 O/U)

Arizona’s riding a quiet 3-game win streak, including a gritty 2-1 win last night against Chris Sale. Pfaadt has quietly put together a decent run, going 6-4 in his last 10 outings, but he’s still allowing 5.4 runs per game over his last 7.

The bats have been heating up—averaging 5.4 runs over their last 5—and Arizona is a sneaky 9-7 SU after a win this season. Even more telling? They’re 4-0 SU vs teams with a win % between 41%–50%, which is exactly where Atlanta sits.

📊 Road Underdog Angle: Arizona is 9-9 SU as a road dog this year with a +0.22 run differential. That’s not elite, but it ain’t chump change either.

---

🪓 Braves Breakdown (27-33 SU, 22-32-6 O/U)

Atlanta has lost 3 straight and is flatlining offensively. They’re averaging just 2.2 runs per game over their last 5 and are a miserable 2-11-2 to the UNDER over their last 15.

Grant Holmes hasn’t been sharp, posting a 4.33 RA (runs against) in his last 3. The Braves are also just 5-9 SU vs. NL West opponents and a paltry 1-5 SU when coming off a loss in Game 2 of a series. This is not the Atlanta of old.

🔥 Warning sign: The Braves are just 7-16-3 O/U vs. RHP, and Pfaadt qualifies.

---

🧠 Raymond Report Forecast

• Game Prediction: Atlanta 4.72 – Arizona 4.22
• VI (Value Index): Arizona +146 | Atlanta -184.74
• C.O.W. (Chances of Winning): ATL 58.12% vs ARI 38.91%
• C.O.G.O. (Chance of Game Going Over): 61% for both clubs
• Streaks: ARI – 3W | ATL – 3L

---

🔍 Betting Lean

If you’re looking for value, Arizona +1.5 or ML at +136 isn’t the worst idea. Braves are overpriced with no offensive rhythm and are being carried by a name, not a performance. Underdog bettors—this is your type of game.

If you’re looking at the Total, the public will lean UNDER, but with both teams hitting the 61% C.O.G.O. mark, there could be some sneaky Over 9 value.

---

📣 Get the Full Raymond Report Tipsheet at ATS STATS

Don’t bet blind—bet educated. Access the full MLB card, forecast, power ratings, and value index tools with the Raymond Report Tipsheet, updated daily.