RAYMOND REPORT QUICK-READ
Get the quick-read Raymond Report for today's slate, featuring key ATS STATS matchup angles, relevant trends and the Raymond Report Computer Forecast for each game.
CINCINNATI REDS at CHICAGO CUBS
Chase Burns delivers a meaningful pitching advantage for Cincinnati, holding a 14-3 record with a 2.77 ERA against the Cubs' Shota Imanaga (8-9, 3.78 ERA). Both teams sit 4-6 straight up over their last ten games, but they diverge sharply on scoring trends: Cincinnati has posted seven overs in its last ten, while Chicago recorded six overs. The conflict emerges in the ATS STATS model projection of just 32% for an over at nine runs: a 68% lean toward the under despite recent form favoring higher-scoring environments. Chicago's historical pattern provides a counter-signal: the Cubs are 10-2 straight up when playing as a minus 140-to-minus 160 home favorite in August over the last five years. The Cubs' August home-favorite record supports Chicago, yet recent over-heavy action by both teams conflicts sharply with model projections favoring the under.
Forecast: Cincinnati 3.77 – Chicago 4.12
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at LOS ANGELES ANGELS
The Phillies bring dominant recent form and a clear pitching advantage to Southern California. Philadelphia is 8-2 over its last ten games with Zack Wheeler (10-5, 3.40 ERA) on the mound. The Angels have dropped six straight and sit 2-8 over their last ten, with Yusei Kikuchi (0-4, 6.25 ERA) taking the ball. The ATS STATS model shows 78% support for an over-eight total, presenting strong weighted evidence for higher-scoring action. However, a competing signal emerges: Los Angeles is 0-8 to the under at home when coming off a two-run loss during the current season: a profile that matches exactly today's situation. The Phillies' dominant recent profile and pitching superiority position them favorably, though the Angels' home-scoring trends introduce competing directional signals on the total.
Forecast: Philadelphia 4.88 – Los Angeles 3.14
BALTIMORE ORIOLES at OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Baltimore's Chris Bassitt (5-4, 4.74 ERA) provides a meaningful pitching edge over Oakland's Jeffrey Springs (3-12, 6.08 ERA). The Orioles are 6-4 over their last ten straight up and come off a 5-3 road win yesterday, while Oakland has lost two straight. Both teams finished under in their last two games, establishing a lower-scoring pattern. Baltimore's historical record strengthens the case: the Orioles are 10-2 straight up when playing as a road favorite between minus 140-to-minus 160 coming off a five-game road trip: exactly today's situation. The ATS STATS model projects 58% for an over at 10.5 runs, though recent scoring trends lean toward lower-scoring outcomes. Baltimore's road-favorite edge, superior recent form, and pitching advantage position the Orioles favorably against a struggling Athletics team.
Forecast: Baltimore 4.15 – Oakland 2.89
HOUSTON ASTROS at NEW YORK METS
New York's Zac Thornton (3-4, 2.88 ERA) provides a clear pitching advantage over Houston's Ethan Pecko (0-0, 7.88 ERA). The Mets are the home favorite and won yesterday's matchup, while Houston dropped the road game and carries a one-game losing streak. Both teams sit 5-5 and 4-6 respectively over their last ten straight up, with matching 4-5-1 records over-under. The ATS STATS model shows 62% support for an over at nine runs. Houston's historical August underdog trend supports the over: the Astros are 9-2 over when playing as a road underdog between 100-120 moneyline in August over the last five years. The Mets present a competing signal: they are 2-8 to the over at home with totals between 9-9.5 after winning against non-division opponents. The over model leans stronger through Houston's August trend, but the Mets' home-total profile creates genuine conflict in this scoring narrative.
Forecast: Houston 3.66 – New York 4.28
PITTSBURGH PIRATES at ST LOUIS CARDINALS
Pittsburgh's Braxton Ashcraft (13-5, 3.59 ERA) delivers a meaningful pitching advantage over St. Louis's Matthew Liberatore (5-12, 5.44 ERA). The Pirates are the road favorite coming off a 6-2 win yesterday, while the Cardinals dropped the game at home. Pittsburgh's recent scoring profile reveals a 1-8-1 over-under record in its last ten: a low-scoring road team. St. Louis, by contrast, is 8-1-1 to the over in its last ten. The ATS STATS model shows 63% support for an over at eight runs. Conflicting signals emerge: St. Louis's home-underdog history supports the Cardinals, and the under is 3-8 for Pirates when played as a road team coming off an eight-game road trip over the last ten years. Pittsburgh's clear pitching edge supports the road favorite, yet St. Louis's home-underdog form and recent high-scoring environment create genuine tension in how this game unfolds.
Forecast: Pittsburgh 3.79 – St Louis 3.44
CHICAGO WHITE SOX at MINNESOTA TWINS
The Chicago White Sox bring genuine momentum to Minnesota, riding a four-game winning streak and 7-3 recent form while the Twins have lost four straight and sit 3-7 over their last ten. The White Sox's road-underdog victory yesterday extends their advantage in form, with Anthony Kay (9-6, 4.09 ERA) facing Minnesota's Zebby Matthews (8-8, 4.86 ERA). The totals picture leans heavily toward the Under at 8.5, with a 61% lean supporting fewer runs based on the scoring environment. Mixed straight-up evidence reflects Chicago's dominance clashing with a market slight to Minnesota, though the Royals' recent road-underdog momentum and superior overall form provides a meaningful edge.
Forecast: Chicago White Sox 3.21 – Minnesota Twins 2.89
TEXAS RANGERS at MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Milwaukee's hot streak: seven of their last ten straight up with four consecutive wins: gives the Brewers a clear advantage over a Rangers team that has dropped four straight and sits 4-6 over the same window. The pitching matchup slightly favors Milwaukee, with Dustin May (6-8, 4.56 ERA) at home against Kumar Rocker (5-10, 4.41 ERA). The Brewers show dominance at home against weaker competition, posting a 22-12 straight-up record in this situation over their last ten home contests. However, the Rangers carry a specific totals trend: the Over is 9-1-2 when they play as a plus-150 to plus-160 road underdog coming off a loss against National League Central opponents over the last five years. Milwaukee's form and home record provide the more reliable edge.
Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers 4.18 – Texas Rangers 3.67
SAN DIEGO PADRES at TAMPA BAY RAYS
Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen (14-5, 2.95 ERA) provides a notable pitching advantage over San Diego's Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.21 ERA), and the Rays' home strength is well-established: 15-6 straight up in their last ten home games against B-type opponents like the Padres. However, San Diego carries a specific counter-trend: the Padres are 15-4 straight up when playing on the road after allowing exactly seven runs in their previous game over the last two years. The Padres gave up exactly seven runs yesterday, aligning that trend perfectly with today's matchup. The totals favor the Under at 7.5 with 56% lean. Tampa Bay's home dominance and pitching edge face genuine opposition from San Diego's unique historical success in this exact defensive scenario.
Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays 3.89 – San Diego 3.22
LOS ANGELES DODGERS at DETROIT TIGERS
The Dodgers project as the stronger team with a road-favorite advantage and superior pitching. Tyler Glasnow (3-0, 3.02 ERA) offers a clear edge over Detroit's Framber Valdez (8-9, 4.35 ERA), and Los Angeles carries a standout trend: 23-5 straight up over the last decade when playing as a minus-160 to minus-180 road favorite on Sundays. Detroit has struggled significantly at 2-8 over their last ten. The totals picture shows conflict: the COGO model projects 78% to the Over at 7.5, but recent form tells a different story. Detroit is 1-9 to the Under in their last ten, and the Dodgers are 3-7 to the Over, creating scoring forecast skepticism despite the model's lean higher.
Forecast: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.12 – Detroit Tigers 2.98
KANSAS CITY ROYALS at CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
The Royals bring exceptional form: 9-1 over their last ten straight up with yesterday's 8-3 road victory over Cleveland: but face a historic pattern favoring the home Guardians. Parker Messick (10-8, 2.50 ERA) provides a meaningful pitching edge over Kansas City's Seth Lugo (6-7, 4.61 ERA). The Guardians show a sharp historical record at 11-2 straight up when playing as a minus-160 to minus-180 home favorite coming off a five-run loss dating back to 1996: a trend that applies precisely today. Totals favor the Under at 7.5 with recent form from both teams tilting toward lower scoring. The Guardians' historic advantage in this situation is strong, though Kansas City's exceptional recent form and yesterday's decisive victory make this matchup more balanced than the minus-180 line suggests.
Forecast: Cleveland Guardians 3.45 – Kansas City 3.12
SEATTLE MARINERS at TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Seattle arrives as a road favorite at -135, with Toronto the +125 underdog and the total set at 8.0. Both teams are even at 5-5 straight up over their last ten games. The Mariners are in the midst of a three-game losing streak following a 3-4 loss, while the Blue Jays ride a two-game win streak after that same home victory.
The pitching advantage favors Seattle: Logan Gilbert (11-7, 3.36 ERA) is significantly sharper than Toronto's Max Scherzer (1-7, 7.02 ERA). However, the Over shows 8-3 for Toronto when playing as a home underdog in this price range against American League opponents over the last two years, suggesting a higher-scoring environment in this spot.
Seattle's superior pitching talent and current form create a lean toward the favorite, but Toronto's recent home success and over tendency keep conviction limited. The evidence remains mixed on a clear direction.
Forecast: Seattle Mariners 4.32 – Toronto Blue Jays 3.22
COLORADO ROCKIES at ATLANTA BRAVES
Atlanta enters the matchup with six consecutive wins and a 47-22 home record. Colorado has lost three straight and sits 2-8 over its last ten games. On the mound, Colorado's Mason Adams (2.25 ERA) holds a significant advantage over Atlanta's Tyler Mahle (5-10, 4.41 ERA).
The Braves are historically dominant in this spot: 13-2 straight up when favored between -220 and -240 at home versus non-division opponents over the last ten years. Colorado faces powerful resistance to scoring: 1-11 when playing as a 200-220 road underdog after a conference game over the last two years. Both teams show 3-7 marks in their last ten on totals, suggesting a lower-scoring environment.
Atlanta's historical home-favorite dominance and Colorado's road-underdog scoring resistance both lean toward the Under, despite the Rockies' pitching edge providing some balance.
Forecast: Colorado Rockies 3.15 – Atlanta 4.22
BOSTON RED SOX at NEW YORK YANKEES
Boston arrives as a -115 road favorite after losing 9-2 yesterday, while New York sits at +150. The total is 8.0. Boston's Ranger Suarez (5-3, 3.35 ERA) holds a clear pitching advantage over the Yankees' Will Warren (8-6, 4.39 ERA). Both teams are matched at 6-4 straight up and 5-5 on totals over their last ten games.
The scoring models lean Over at 61.9%, but historical data presents a sharp conflict: road favorites priced between -100 and -120 have gone 4-12 to the Under over the last decade. This represents a powerful Under trend that contradicts the current season's totals model.
The matchup features competing evidence: modern scoring models versus a proven decade-long historical pattern favoring the Under. The conflicting signals require weighing recent totals activity against established price-range tendencies.
Forecast: Boston Red Sox 4.18 – New York Yankees 3.44
MIAMI MARLINS at WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Miami arrives as a slight -108 road favorite despite a two-game losing streak, with Washington at +101. The total is 9.0. The Marlins sent Janson Junk (6-8, 4.21 ERA) to the mound, facing Washington's Andrew Alvarez (2-6, 3.72 ERA). Both teams are evenly matched at 4-6 straight up over their last ten games.
The ATS STATS model rates both clubs at 40.0% for an Over, pointing toward an Under lean at 9.0 runs. However, Miami shows 9-1-0 on the Over when playing as an away team coming off a two-game losing streak during the current season: a smaller sample that directly conflicts with the broader scoring model.
Both teams lack a clear straight-up edge, and the totals picture shows mixed evidence. The broader model leans Under, but Miami's specific road-plus-streak trend creates conflicting signals on the total.
Forecast: Miami Marlins 4.12 – Washington 4.08
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