Get the quick-read Raymond Report for today’s slate, featuring key ATS STATS matchup angles, relevant trends and the Raymond Report Computer Forecast for each game.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
The Phillies arrive riding an eight-win stretch over their last ten games with a four-game winning streak, while the Diamondbacks sit at 6-4 over their final ten after dropping a contest to San Francisco. Aaron Nola takes the mound for Philadelphia at 5-10 with a 5.03 ERA, facing Brandon Pfaadt’s stronger 7-1 record and 3.51 ERA. Philadelphia’s pitching profile presents a notable disadvantage against Arizona’s quality arm.
The Phillies are favored at -125 despite a model projection giving Arizona a 50.13% win probability versus Philadelphia’s 40%. A notable strength: Philadelphia is 13-4 straight up when playing away after a win over an AL West opponent over the last five years. Scoring has been mixed—the Phillies are 4 overs and 5 unders in their last ten, while Arizona sits 6 overs and 4 unders with an 8-run total.
The matchup presents legitimate uncertainty. Philadelphia’s recent form and favorable away-team trend suggest an edge, but Pfaadt’s quality pitching and the close model probability temper that advantage.
Forecast: Philadelphia Phillies 4.32 – Arizona Diamondbacks 3.22
NEW YORK YANKEES at LOS ANGELES ANGELS
The Yankees bring dominant recent form at 6-4 over their last ten games after beating Boston at home, while the Angels are in freefall at 2-8 following a 5-2 home loss to Philadelphia. Elmer Rodriguez starts for New York at 0-2 with a 4.70 ERA against Los Angeles’ Mitch Farris at 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA—neither pitcher offers sharp command.
New York is favored at -145 with an 8.5-run total. The Angels present a critical weakness: they are 2-12 with one push playing at home in August this season, a hard under trend. However, the Yankees lean toward overs (6 overs, 4 unders in their last ten), creating conflict on totals. New York carries a strong moneyline trend: 10-2 straight up this season when traveling after a win over an AL East opponent.
The Yankees hold superior form and a favorable road trend, though the Angels’ August home-scoring profile creates meaningful tension on the total.
Forecast: New York Yankees 4.85 – Los Angeles Angels 2.56
BALTIMORE ORIOLES at COLORADO ROCKIES
Baltimore arrives with a three-game winning streak and 7-3 record over their last ten after beating Oakland 8-5 on the road, while Colorado has dropped four straight and sits 2-8 over their final ten games. Kyle Bradish (7-12, 4.03 ERA) gives Baltimore a meaningful pitching edge over Colorado’s Tanner Gordon (1-4, 5.38 ERA).
The under is the strongest play here. Baltimore is 4 overs and 6 unders over their last ten, favoring lower-scoring baseball. More compelling is a historical trend: the under is 2-9 for the Rockies when they’re a +100 to +120 home underdog facing a non-conference opponent over the last two years. Baltimore is favored at -142 with an 11-run total.
Baltimore’s strong recent form and Colorado’s scoring underperformance at home as a non-conference underdog both support the under in this matchup.
Forecast: Baltimore Orioles 5.11 – Colorado Rockies 3.89
CHICAGO WHITE SOX at HOUSTON ASTROS
Chicago arrives after a 1-5 road loss at Minnesota, while Houston enters with momentum after beating the Mets 6-3 on the road. Recent form shows Chicago at 6-4 over their last ten straight up versus Houston’s 5-5, though Houston holds home advantage at 33-35 overall. Anthony Kay (9-6, 4.09 ERA) faces Peter Lambert (8-7, 3.66 ERA), giving Houston the earned-run-average edge.
The over is strongly supported. Chicago is 6-4 to the over in their last ten games, and a system trend shows teams in the White Sox’s situation—visiting after a day game during the current season—are hitting the over at 15-5-1. Both indicators point to higher-scoring action with the total set at 8.5.
The over carries stronger weighted totals evidence, with both Chicago’s recent over rate and the specific system trend favoring more runs in this matchup.
Forecast: Chicago White Sox 4.78 – Houston Astros 4.55
OAKLAND ATHLETICS at TEXAS RANGERS
Oakland dropped their third straight (8-5 loss at home to Baltimore) and sits 4-6 over their last ten, while Texas grabbed a road win against Milwaukee (7-4) with a 5-5 recent record. Gage Jump (6-8, 4.69 ERA) starts for Oakland against Texas’ Jacob Degrom (9-9, 4.21 ERA), giving the Rangers a pitching advantage. Both offenses have struggled—Oakland is 4 overs and 6 unders; Texas is 4 overs, 4 unders, and 2 pushes over their recent stretches.
Texas is heavily favored at -244 with a 7.5-run total. The model rates this at 54% over and 46% under, but both teams’ recent mixed scoring records and the modest total suggest caution on the over. Texas is just 1-4 over their last five games, dampening the moneyline advantage despite the talent edge with Degrom.
Scoring remains balanced. While Texas holds a talent edge at home, recent form conflict and restrained run totals from both offenses argue for caution.
Forecast: Texas Rangers 4.41 – Oakland Athletics 2.80
MILWAUKEE BREWERS at CHICAGO CUBS
The Brewers bring a significant recent-form advantage, holding a 7-3 straight-up record over their last ten games compared to the Cubs’ 3-7 stretch. Kyle Harrison (10-3, 2.79 ERA) provides Milwaukee a pitching edge over Chicago’s Clay Holmes (5-6, 2.26 ERA), though Holmes owns the superior ERA. Milwaukee is favored at -106 on the moneyline with Chicago at +114, and the total is set at 9.5 runs.
Conflicting signals emerge in the totals environment. The ATS STATS model projects exactly 38% Chances Of Game Going Over, favoring the Under at 62%. Chicago sits 7-3 to the over in its last ten, while Milwaukee logs just 4 overs and 5 unders in the same span. A five-year trend shows the Under at 1-9 for Cubs home teams favored between -100 and -120 against Milwaukee, but that specific spot doesn’t match today’s -106 line.
The Brewers’ recent form and pitching advantage position them as the stronger side, though the conflicting totals signals complicate the matchup profile.
Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers 4.32 – Chicago Cubs 3.22
DETROIT TIGERS at MINNESOTA TWINS
Detroit arrives in Minneapolis losers of six of its last eight games (2-8 SU in ten), while Minnesota sits at 3-7 over the same span. Jackson Jobe (1-1, 3.93 ERA) opposes Taj Bradley (9-6, 3.97 ERA) in a matchup where the Twins, favored at -135, hold the recent-form edge despite both teams struggling. The total sits at 8.5 runs.
A strong historical trend supports scoring: the over is 8-2 for Tigers road underdogs between +100 and +120 coming off a loss to an NL West Division opponent since 1996. Minnesota counters at 9-2 straight up when playing at home coming off a win, though recent totals paint a different picture—the Twins are 6-1 to the over in their last ten compared to Detroit’s 1-9. The scoring model projects 67% over probability, pushing toward higher-scoring outcomes despite Detroit’s brutal recent form.
Mixed signals characterize this contest, with Detroit’s strong underdog over trend conflicting against Minnesota’s recent under-heavy environment.
Forecast: Minnesota Twins 4.31 – Detroit Tigers 3.81
SEATTLE MARINERS at BOSTON RED SOX
Boston holds a meaningful recent-form advantage and the pitching edge. Payton Tolle (8-6, 3.09 ERA) provides the Red Sox a superior arm compared to Seattle’s George Kirby (9-10, 4.02 ERA). Boston sits 6-4 straight up over ten games while Seattle has dropped four consecutive and sits 4-6 over the same span. The Red Sox are favored at -161 with Seattle at +150, and the total is set at 8 runs.
A dominant five-year trend complicates the totals outlook: the over is 14-3 when Seattle plays as the visiting team against Boston, an extremely specific matchup edge. However, the 51% model projection toward over sits in tension with both offenses scuffling—Seattle was shut out 7-0 at Toronto and Boston lost 1-16 to the Yankees. Boston’s last ten splits 5-5 on totals while Seattle’s sits at 6-4 to the over, creating a conflict between the Mariners’ historical scoring profile and current scoring environment constraints.
Boston’s home form and pitching advantage stand against Seattle’s remarkable five-year over trend in this specific matchup.
Forecast: Boston Red Sox 4.12 – Seattle Mariners 3.19
MIAMI MARLINS at WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Miami arrives as a road underdog after claiming yesterday’s contest 6-2 over Washington. Ryan Gusto (1-3, 3.98 ERA) takes the mound for Miami against Washington’s Will Dion (1-1, 3.67 ERA). The market favors Miami at -120 to -140, creating an unusual road-favorite setup where Miami holds a sharp historical edge: the Marlins are 11-2 straight up when appearing as a minus-one-twenty to minus-one-forty road favorite with a total between 8.5 and 9.5 over the last five years. The total is 9 runs.
The scoring environment points decisively toward the under. The model projects just 41% over probability (59% under), and Washington shows 11-3 to the over when playing at home coming off one under this season—a sign scoring has been constrained. Both clubs logged exactly one under each in recent games, with neither offense generating explosive output lately. The straight-up contest remains balanced despite Miami’s recent success.
The under carries stronger model and scoring environment support despite Miami’s historical advantage in this exact road-favorite configuration.
Forecast: Miami Marlins 3.98 – Washington Nationals 3.22
SAN DIEGO PADRES at CINCINNATI REDS
Both teams sit 4-6 straight up over ten games, but their scoring profiles diverge sharply. San Diego has posted 5 overs and 4 unders over that span while Cincinnati shows 7 overs and 3 unders—a meaningful split favoring Cincinnati’s scoring environment. Michael King (8-9, 3.23 ERA) pitches for San Diego against Cincinnati’s Brady Singer (5-12, 4.72 ERA). San Diego is favored at -140 with Cincinnati at +131, and the total is 9 runs.
Substantial downside pressure surrounds the total. The model projects just 25% over probability (75% under) on the 9-run total. Cincinnati carries a 0-9 record when played as a home underdog coming off a win over two years—a massive under flag in this exact situation. The Padres show 2-9 when played as an away team coming off losses this season, with recent road travel marked by three straight overs that contradict their current under-skewed pattern. Both recent scoring environments and historical trends point decisively toward scoring constraints.
Multiple convergent trends and the model projection point to substantial under pressure despite Cincinnati’s recent scoring edge.
Forecast: San Diego Padres 3.87 – Cincinnati Reds 2.64
METS AT RAYS
Robert Stock takes the mound for New York carrying a 0-3 record and 7.40 ERA, while Tampa Bay counters with Ian Seymour, who is 9-5 with a 4.21 ERA—a meaningful pitching advantage favoring the home team. The Rays are riding a four-game winning streak with six wins in their last ten, while the Mets won only four of ten after a loss to Houston. When the Mets play on the road as an underdog with a total between 8.0 and 8.5 against an American League East opponent following a series loss, they carry a 5-7 straight-up record in that exact spot. The scoring environment shows a 49% Under lean in the ATS STATS model, while Tampa Bay sits 3-7 on overs in their last ten at home, reinforcing the lower-scoring tendency. Tampa Bay is favored at -170.
Forecast: Rays 4.21 – Mets 3.80
GIANTS AT BRAVES
The Braves bring dominant form into this matchup, riding a seven-game winning streak with an 8-2 record over their last ten straight up. Atlanta also boasts a 14-3 home record in August during the 2026 season. Anthony Molina starts for San Francisco at 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA, opposed by Bryce Elder (8-7, 3.95 ERA) for Atlanta. The Giants carry an 8-2-1 Over record when playing as road underdogs between -140 and -160 against conference opponents over the past two years—a notable trend in this spot. The ATS STATS model shows 43% Over and 57% Under probability at an 8.0 total, creating conflicting signals between Atlanta’s dominant home August form and San Francisco’s road underdog Over tendency.
Forecast: Braves 4.30 – Giants 3.81
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