Get the quick-read Raymond Report for today's slate, featuring key ATS STATS matchup angles, relevant trends and the Raymond Report Computer Forecast for each game.
ST LOUIS CARDINALS at LOS ANGELES DODGERS
The Dodgers' superior recent form provides the primary edge in this matchup. Los Angeles is 6-4 straight up over their last ten games while St. Louis sits at 3-7 in that span. The Dodgers' pitching advantage is notable as well, with Eric Lauer (8-6, 4.78 ERA) facing Michael McGreevy (5-9, 3.86 ERA). The Cardinals' offense has been highly active, going 8 overs and 1 under in their last ten, but the Dodgers trend toward lower-scoring games at 2-8 to the under. A standout trend supports Los Angeles: the Dodgers are 9-2 straight up when favored at minus 160 to minus 180 at home coming off a game with six or more runs scored. That situation played out exactly last night against Detroit.
Forecast: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.41 – St. Louis Cardinals 3.22
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Philadelphia enters on elite form with eight wins in their last ten straight up and a five-game winning streak, including yesterday's 2-1 victory over Arizona. Arizona has dropped two straight and sits at 5-5 over ten games. Jesus Luzardo (12-5, 3.09 ERA) holds a clear advantage over Eduardo Rodriguez (14-4, 2.50 ERA) despite Rodriguez's stronger ERA. The totals picture shows genuine conflict: Arizona carries a documented trend showing the over is 8-2 when the team plays as a home underdog in the 100-120 range on Tuesdays over the last five years. Philadelphia's recent over-under split stands at 4-5, while Arizona is exactly even at 5-5. The Phillies' straight-up form and road favorite status lean toward Philadelphia, but Arizona's Tuesday home underdog over trend and strong starting pitching create balanced risk.
Forecast: Philadelphia Phillies 4.89 – Arizona Diamondbacks 3.51
NEW YORK YANKEES at LOS ANGELES ANGELS
The Yankees carry a dominant road-favorite trend offsetting the Angels' home field advantage. New York is 10-1 straight up when lined as a minus 180 to minus 200 road favorite during night games over the last two years. Gerrit Cole (7-7, 3.19 ERA) faces Grayson Rodriguez (14-4, 2.50 ERA), with Rodriguez showing superior credentials despite Cole's reputation. The Yankees sit at 5-5 straight up over ten games but lean heavily over at 7-3 on the total side. The Angels have struggled to just 2-8 straight up over ten games. Arizona holds a documented totals pattern: the over is 10-2 for Los Angeles when playing as a home underdog at plus 140-160 in the second game of a series over five years. The market and model favor the under at 54 percent, creating conflict between the strong trend angles and the totals outlook.
Forecast: New York Yankees 4.55 – Los Angeles Angels 2.89
BALTIMORE ORIOLES at COLORADO ROCKIES
Baltimore brings overwhelming momentum into this rematch, riding a four-game winning streak against Colorado's five-game skid. The pitching mismatch heavily favors the Orioles: Kyle Bradish (7-12, 4.03 ERA) faces Gabriel Hughes (0-6, 6.61 ERA), a stark difference in quality. Baltimore's recent form is dominant at 8-2 straight up over ten games while Colorado sits at 2-8. The Orioles support a reliable trend at 7-3 straight up when favored at minus 140-160 on the road coming off a one-run win since 1996. Both offenses lean toward lower-scoring environments, with Baltimore at 4-6 over their last ten and Colorado at 3-7. The model projects 67 percent over at 11 runs, conflicting with both teams' recent under-heavy totals records.
Forecast: Baltimore Orioles 4.12 – Colorado Rockies 2.88
CHICAGO WHITE SOX at HOUSTON ASTROS
Chicago enters as a modest road favorite at minus 123 despite evenly matched recent straight-up form, with both teams sitting at 6-4 over their last ten games. Sean Burke (7-6, 3.32 ERA) holds a clear advantage over Ronel Blanco (0-1, 7.71 ERA). The most compelling evidence surrounds the totals: the model shows 61 percent under on 8.5 runs, with the White Sox contributing to that lean at 7-3 overs and three unders in recent play. Houston's offensive output split evenly at 4-4 with two pushes over ten games. The Astros do carry historical equity as a home underdog at 10-3 straight up against conference opponents over five years. However, the totals evidence strongly favors the under, supported by both the model projection and recent scoring patterns.
Forecast: Chicago White Sox 4.33 – Houston Astros 3.89
OAKLAND ATHLETICS at TEXAS RANGERS
Oakland arrives in Texas after dropping the previous matchup 8-1 and riding a four-game losing streak. However, the Athletics hold an 11-3 straight-up record when playing away after a seven-run loss over the last five years. Ryan Magdic starts for Oakland against Texas's Mackenzie Gore (7-10, 4.40 ERA). The Rangers' pitching advantage is notable, but the totals picture favors the Under. Texas shows a 1-9 Under record at home, coming off a win, against a left-handed pitcher this season: a strong defensive signal. Oakland's last ten games split evenly at 5-5 on totals. The total is set at 7.5 with Texas favored at -187.
Forecast: Texas Rangers 4.5 – Oakland Athletics 3.0
MILWAUKEE BREWERS at CHICAGO CUBS
Chicago's dominance at home is the defining matchup factor. The Cubs are 20-5 straight up this season at Wrigley versus conference opponents and enter on the strength of a 17-3 victory yesterday. Milwaukee counter with a 6-4 recent straight-up record but arrive after dropping two straight and posting back-to-back Overs. On the mound, Matthew Boyd (8-3, 3.99 ERA) gives Chicago a significant pitching advantage over Robert Gasser (4-5, 4.59 ERA). The totals conflict presents risk: the model favors the Under at 26% Over probability, yet the Cubs have gone Over in 8 of their last 10 games overall, while the Brewers show only 4 Overs in 10. The Under is 2-10 for Milwaukee when away after two consecutive Overs this season. Chicago is favored at -126 with a 10.5 total.
Forecast: Chicago Cubs 6.2 – Milwaukee Brewers 4.3
MIAMI MARLINS at KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Kansas City's recent form and role-based advantage dominate this matchup. The Royals sit 8-2 straight up over their last ten games and carry a 7-3 straight-up record when playing as a -100 to -120 home favorite this season: a direct role edge. Miami enters at 5-5 over the same span and comes off an away loss. On the mound, Randy Dobnak (2-2, 1.92 ERA) gives Kansas City a clear pitching edge over Tyler Phillips (3-6, 3.59 ERA). The totals picture is mixed: Miami shows 8-2 On the Over when away after a loss versus a right-handed pitcher, yet both teams' ten-game records lean Under. The ATS STATS model projects 47% Over probability for both teams. Kansas City is favored at -114 with a 9.5 total.
Forecast: Kansas City Royals 5.1 – Miami Marlins 4.0
DETROIT TIGERS at MINNESOTA TWINS
Detroit holds the pitching advantage with Troy Melton (7-3, 1.86 ERA) opposing Minnesota's Connor Prielipp (3-7, 5.55 ERA). However, the totals environment favors Minnesota's recent offensive trends. The Twins show 6-3 to the Over in their last ten games, while Detroit has posted only 2 Overs in eight losses over that span. The ATS STATS model projects 59% Over probability for both teams, supporting the higher-scoring thesis. The market has set the total at 8.5 runs. Despite Melton's elite ERA and Detroit's recent scoring struggles suggesting a tighter contest, Minnesota's Over trend and the model's 59% Over probability both point toward increased run production. Minnesota has won two straight games, while Detroit carries back-to-back losses.
Forecast: Minnesota Twins 5.2 – Detroit Tigers 3.3
SEATTLE MARINERS at BOSTON RED SOX
Boston's recent form provides the edge, with the Red Sox 6-4 straight up in their last ten games compared to Seattle's 4-6 record. The Mariners are mired in a five-game losing streak and have managed only a 27-43 road record this season. Bryan Woo (9-9, 4.36 ERA) starts for Seattle against Boston righty Jedixson Paez. The totals present conflicting signals. The ATS STATS model projects 42% Over probability, favoring the Under at 58%, with the total set at 7.5. However, Seattle's five-year history against Boston provides powerful counterweight: the Mariners are 15-3 to the Over when playing away at Boston over the last five years: a specific structured advantage. Boston is favored at -119.
Forecast: Boston Red Sox 4.1 – Seattle Mariners 3.2
ATLANTA BRAVES at WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Atlanta arrives as the road favorite at -166, while Washington sits at +154 with a total of 10. Braves righty A-J Smith-Shawver (5.93 ERA) faces Nationals righty Jake Irvin (2-8, 5.62 ERA). The Braves' pitching advantage is secondary to a significant matchup trend: Atlanta shows 20-17 straight up on the road against C-type teams like Washington over their last ten such games, while the Nationals sit just 2-8 straight up at home against A-type opponents in the same window. Atlanta's 7-3 recent form reinforces the edge. A conflicting signal emerges from totals: the Nationals are 9-1-1 on overs at home on Tuesdays this season, but Atlanta's last ten games produced only three overs and seven unders, pointing to a lower-scoring environment and creating uncertainty on the total.
Forecast: Atlanta Braves 4.32 – Washington Nationals 3.22
TORONTO BLUE JAYS at CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
Toronto arrives at Progressive Field riding a three-game winning streak, but Cleveland holds clear momentum at 8-2 over their last ten straight up. Guardians righty Gavin Williams (12-7, 3.98 ERA) has superior stuff compared to Blue Jays righty Spencer Arrighetti (7-7, 4.81 ERA). Cleveland is favored at -176; Toronto is +163 with a total of 8. A strong historical trend favors the Guardians: they are 11-4 straight up when playing as a -160 to -180 home favorite against a conference opponent over the last five years. However, Toronto presents a competing angle as a road underdog in this price range coming off a win: the Blue Jays are 8-2-1 on overs in that exact spot over the last two years. Cleveland's recent form and home-favorite efficiency lean toward the side, but the matchup remains balanced given Toronto's road underdog over pattern.
Forecast: Cleveland Guardians 4.18 – Toronto Blue Jays 3.56
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS at PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Both teams enter with matched momentum after wins: San Francisco beat Atlanta 7-3 on the road, while Pittsburgh defeated St. Louis 5-4 at home. However, the Giants' road record against C-type teams tells a different story: they sit 9-19 straight up in their last ten such games, while Pittsburgh's home numbers against C-type opponents show 13-11 straight up with 17 overs and seven unders. The Pirates' home advantage appears real against this matchup profile. Giants righty Logan Webb (8-8, 3.72 ERA) and Pirates righty Paul Skenes (9-11, 3.79 ERA) offer comparable stability. Pittsburgh is favored at -158; San Francisco is +147 with a total of 7.5. The Giants have posted four straight overs, but Pittsburgh's recent totals lean opposite at 2-7 in their last ten. The ATS STATS model rates both teams at 36 percent to the over, implying a 64 percent lean to the under: creating genuine conflict in the scoring environment.
Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.64 – San Francisco Giants 2.84
SAN DIEGO PADRES at CINCINNATI REDS
San Diego carries form momentum at 5-5 over the last ten games, while Cincinnati has slid to 4-6. The Padres blanked the Reds 5-0 yesterday and return as the road favorite at -134; Cincinnati is +125 with a total of 9.5. Padres righty Randy Vasquez (10-6, 4.02 ERA) has been the more consistent starter than Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo (3-3, 5.24 ERA). Both recent form and statistical modeling align on the under: the ATS STATS model rates the over at 42 percent, pointing to a 58 percent lean toward the under at 9.5. San Diego's steady form advantage over Cincinnati's recent decline reinforces the lower-scoring environment.
Forecast: San Diego Padres 3.18 – Cincinnati Reds 2.64
NEW YORK METS at TAMPA BAY RAYS
The Mets arrive after beating Tampa 3-2 on the road, while the Rays lost 3-2 at home. Tampa has won six of their last ten straight up; New York has taken four of ten. The Rays are favored at -124; the Mets are +116 with a total of 8. Mets southpaw Sean Manaea (4-6, 4.55 ERA) faces Rays righty Freddy Peralta (6-11, 5.11 ERA). The Mets show a powerful historical pattern: they are 11-4 on the over when played as the away team coming off a win against an AL East Division opponent over the last five years: their exact situation tonight. However, this conflicts with recent form: the Rays have gone 3-7 on overs in their last ten games. The ATS STATS model rates both teams at 60 percent to the over, yet recent under momentum creates genuine tension between established precedent and current trends.
Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays 3.45 – New York Mets 2.88
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