RAYMOND REPORT QUICK-READ
Get the quick-read Raymond Report for today's slate, featuring key ATS STATS matchup angles, relevant trends and the Raymond Report Computer Forecast for each game.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS at LOS ANGELES DODGERS
St. Louis arrives in Los Angeles riding momentum after an 8-6 road victory over the Dodgers and a two-game straight-up winning streak. Quinn Mathews takes the mound for the Cardinals against the Dodgers' Tarik Skubal. The Cardinals sit 8-1-1 to the over in their last ten games overall and are on a three-game over streak, while Los Angeles has trended toward lower-scoring environments at 3-7 to the over in their last ten. Despite St. Louis's offensive momentum, the ATS STATS model shows both teams at 64% odds of going under, signaling a strong lean toward a lower-scoring game. Los Angeles holds a powerful historic advantage: the Dodgers are 34-11 straight up at home on Thursdays over the last five years. The market favors the Dodgers at -3.11 with the total at 8.
Forecast: St. Louis Cardinals 3.86 – Los Angeles Dodgers 5.12
OAKLAND ATHLETICS at SEATTLE MARINERS
Both Oakland and Seattle sit at 4-6 over their last ten straight up, but recent scoring trends diverge meaningfully. Oakland has posted 7 overs against 3 unders, while Seattle shows 6 overs and 4 unders, with the total set at 7.5. Seattle's Kade Anderson (4-5, 3.87 ERA) faces Oakland's Jack Perkins. Both teams carry winning streaks with recent over-heavy action. However, the ATS STATS model shows a 76% chance this game goes under, directly conflicting with recent scoring momentum. Seattle presents a dominant historical edge: the Mariners are 10-1 straight up when playing as a -200 to -220 home favorite on Thursday since 1996. Oakland enters at 7-4 on the over in that exact situation this season. The market favors Seattle at -205.
Forecast: Oakland Athletics 3.18 – Seattle Mariners 4.92
TAMPA BAY RAYS at TEXAS RANGERS
Tampa Bay arrives as a road favorite at -126, sitting 7-3 over their last ten straight up against Texas's 5-5 record. The Rays represent an A-type team facing a C-type opponent, yet a critical trend complicates expectations: in their last ten road games against C-type teams, Tampa is 31-20 straight up but just 21-28 on the over-under. Shane McClanahan opposes Cal Quantrill with an 8-run total. The ATS STATS model shows just a 38% chance of going over, leaning 62% toward the under. Multiple scoring trends reinforce this lean: Tampa's under trend sits 5-15 when playing as a road favorite between -120 and -140 against a conference opponent over two years, while Texas's under trend is particularly stark at 3-17 at home on Thursday. Despite Tampa's favorite status, multiple angles point toward a low-scoring environment.
Forecast: Tampa Bay Rays 3.44 – Texas Rangers 3.78
MIAMI MARLINS at KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Miami holds a -112 favorite position after beating Kansas City 9-6 in their last matchup, riding a two-game winning streak. Yet the recent form picture presents meaningful conflict: Miami sits 5-5 over their last ten straight up while Kansas City holds 6-4, though the Royals currently struggle with three straight losses. Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for Miami against Kansas City's Michael Wacha with a 9-run total. The ATS STATS model shows both teams at 47% probability of going over, signaling a 53% lean toward the under. A powerful Kansas City trend reinforces this direction: the under is 8-21 for the Royals when playing at home after a loss in game two of a series over two years. While Miami owns momentum and the head-to-head victory, multiple factors favor a lower-scoring outcome.
Forecast: Miami Marlins 4.26 – Kansas City Royals 4.18
MILWAUKEE BREWERS at CHICAGO CUBS
Milwaukee arrives as a road favorite at -162 after posting a 9-5 victory over the Cubs at home, sitting 6-4 over their last ten straight up against Chicago's struggling 4-6 stretch. Logan Henderson faces Chicago's Kevin Gausman with an 8.5-run total. The ATS STATS model shows both teams at just 25% probability of going over, indicating a 75% lean toward the under. Despite recent offensive activity: the Brewers posting 6 overs and 3 unders while the Cubs went 8 overs and 2 unders in their last ten: a powerful historical trend dominates: the Brewers are 1-10 to the under when playing as a road favorite against a conference opponent over five years. Chicago shows strength at home this season (20-5 straight up against conference opponents), but Milwaukee's form and trend alignment suggest a lower-scoring environment despite recent over activity.
Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers 3.12 – Chicago Cubs 4.18
BOSTON RED SOX at BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Boston arrives in Baltimore off consecutive losses, including an 8-3 home defeat to Seattle, while the Orioles finished a nine-game road trip with a loss in Colorado. Over their last ten games, Boston sits 4-6 straight up versus Baltimore's 6-4 record, giving the home underdog better recent form. Jake Bennett starts for Boston against Brandon Young for Baltimore. The Red Sox are favored at -1.5 on the road with the total set at 8.5. Boston has gone over in five straight games, a bullish scoring indicator. However, the matchup presents conflicting trends. Boston's historical record as a road favorite in the -120 to -140 range coming off a two-game losing streak stands at 8-2 straight up over the last five years. Conversely, the under is just 2-10 for Baltimore when playing as a home underdog in this price range following a runs loss over the same period. The ATS STATS model suggests the total is fairly priced at roughly 50-50.
Forecast: Boston 4.12 – Baltimore 3.22
CHICAGO WHITE SOX at HOUSTON ASTROS
The White Sox arrive in Houston after a shutout loss, dropping to 0-2 in a road underdog spot with two straight unders. The Astros won that game and are riding a one-game winning streak, though they've also posted two straight unders. Both teams sit 6-4 in their last ten games straight up, but Chicago's road record is a concerning 32-39 for the season. Houston is favored at -1.62 with the total at 8.5. Luis Castillo faces Hunter Brown. The ATS STATS COGO model shows an over lean at 56 percent for both teams, but Chicago has averaged just 2.4 runs per game over their last five road contests: a profile working against higher scoring. A notable historical pattern emerges: when Houston plays as a minus-160 to -180 home favorite against an American League Central opponent, the over has gone 10-3 over the last five years. Recent tight-scoring trends and Chicago's road underdog struggles create conflicting signals on the total.
Forecast: Houston 4.35 – Chicago 2.89
TORONTO BLUE JAYS at CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
Toronto dominated yesterday with an 11-0 road victory at Cleveland, riding a one-game winning streak while Cleveland fell to a one-game losing streak: though both teams pushed the over in that contest. Jose Soriano takes the mound for Toronto against Tanner Bibee for Cleveland. Toronto is favored at -1.31 with the total set at 7.0. Toronto stands 6-4 in its last ten road games, but Cleveland enters as the hotter team at 7-3 at home over the same stretch. The scoring environments diverge: Toronto is 5-4-1 over/under in their last ten, while Cleveland leans lower at 4-6 in that span. The ATS STATS model places both teams at 51 percent for an over. A strong supporting trend favors Toronto: the Blue Jays are 7-3 as a road favorite in the -100 to -120 range against American League Central opponents over the last ten years. Cleveland's recent success and compressed scoring environment temper this edge, creating a balanced matchup.
Forecast: Toronto 4.18 – Cleveland 3.15
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS at PITTSBURGH PIRATES
San Francisco enters as the road underdog after a 5-4 victory at Pittsburgh, where the Pirates fell as the home favorite. The momentum shift favors the Giants heading into this matchup. Blade Tidwell starts for San Francisco against Lake Bachar for Pittsburgh. San Francisco is 6-4 in its last ten games straight up while Pittsburgh sits at 5-5 over the same stretch. Pittsburgh holds a 60.59 percent chance of winning at home, though San Francisco's 39.85 percent keeps the matchup genuinely competitive. The critical angle centers on scoring: San Francisco is 6-3-1 over-under in their last ten, while Pittsburgh heavily trends toward lower-scoring at 2-6-2. The ATS STATS model converges on a 23 percent chance of going over; a 77 percent lean to the under; with the total set at 8.5. The Giants also carry a 10-3 straight-up record as the road team against National League Central opponents this season.
Forecast: San Francisco 3.11 – Pittsburgh 3.09
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