Introduction: How Oddsmakers Value MLB Favorites
In the sports betting markets, not all favorites are created equal. Some teams carry a heavy public “tax,” while others fly under the radar and provide bettors with real value. Using the Raymond Report Market Value Index, we break down how MLB teams are priced as favorites at home and on the road when facing A, B, or C-type opponents.
This report highlights where bettors are paying inflated prices and where sneaky value exists for sharp players looking to maximize ROI.
🚨 Overvalued MLB Favorites
When it comes to favorites, a few big-market teams consistently carry inflated moneyline prices:
- Los Angeles Dodgers (B-Type) – At home vs C teams, the market averages -266.38, and even on the road vs C’s they post -207.68. This isn’t value—it’s a public team tax.
- New York Yankees (B-Type) – Against C’s at Yankee Stadium, the average price is -208.93. Bettors love the pinstripes, but value players should tread carefully.
- Philadelphia Phillies (B-Type) – Home vs C-type teams, books push the line to -204.25. Another brand-name premium.
Takeaway: These teams may win more often than not, but the juice kills value. Use them on the runline or in parlays, not straight moneyline action.
⚖️ Market-Neutral Favorites with Betting Value
Not all favorites are overpriced. Certain teams remain in that sweet spot where oddsmakers respect them but don’t overinflate the number:
- Tampa Bay Rays (B-Type) – Home vs A’s at -119.67, road vs C’s at -126.74. Fair prices, no “public tax.”
- Seattle Mariners (B-Type) – Road vs A’s at -111, road vs C’s at -141.05. Consistent and affordable lines.
- Kansas City Royals (B-Type) – At home vs A’s priced at -133.5, road vs C’s at -128.07. Bettors get fair odds despite KC’s winning profile.
Takeaway: These “middle-class” teams are where sharp bettors often find their best value.
💰 Sneaky Value from C-Type Favorites
C-type teams rarely inspire confidence, but that’s exactly why their lines sometimes present hidden value:
- Minnesota Twins (C-Type) – Surprisingly priced like contenders: -164.65 at home vs C’s, -151.18 on the road vs C’s.
- Baltimore Orioles (C-Type) – Market swings from -218.03 at home vs B’s to just -106 on the road vs A’s. Timing is key here.
- Oakland Athletics (C-Type) – Home vs A’s priced at -132.33, showing that books occasionally give them respect in the right matchup.
Takeaway: Backing C-type favorites is risky business, but when the line looks cheap compared to averages, bettors may be catching an oddsmaker misprice.
🔑 Key Betting Insights
- Public teams (Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Cubs) = inflated lines, low value.
- Non-public winners (Rays, Mariners, Royals, Guardians) = fair lines, consistent value.
- C-type favorites = volatile but occasionally sharp contrarian plays.
✅ Bottom line: The sweet spot for betting favorites lives in the -115 to -150 range. When you see B-type teams priced there against weaker opponents, that’s where the Raymond Report says value lives.
Conclusion: Using Market Value to Your Advantage
This MLB Favorite Value Report is another reminder that betting isn’t just about who wins—it’s about what price you’re paying. Sharp bettors don’t chase winners, they chase value.
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