📍 Fenway Park, Boston | Tuesday, April 8, 2025 | First Pitch: 6:45 PM EST
🧠 Powered by The Raymond Report – ATSSTATS.com
🧾 Game Line
- Toronto Blue Jays: +170 ML | +1.5 RL
- Boston Red Sox: -205 ML | -1.5 RL
- Over/Under: 8
⚾ Starting Pitchers
Toronto Blue Jays: Easton Lucas (LHP)
- Last 3 Games: 1-0 (RF: 4.0, RA: 2.0)
- Yet to allow more than 2 runs this season
- Strong early control, still gaining MLB experience
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet (LHP)
- First official start in 2025
- No recent sample at starter; used primarily in relief in prior seasons
- Big stage debut as Boston looks to bounce back at home
🔍 Recent Performance & Trends
| Team | SU | ATS | O/U | Last Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | 6-5 | 8-3-0 | 3-8-0 | Won 6-2 vs BOS |
| Boston | 6-5 | 7-4-0 | 4-6-1 | Lost 6-2 vs TOR |
Last 5 Games:
- TOR: 2-3 SU (RF: 2.6, RA: 2.8)
- BOS: 4-1 SU (RF: 9.2, RA: 6.0)
Last 10 Games:
- TOR: 6-4 SU (RF: 3.9, RA: 3.1)
- BOS: 5-5 SU (RF: 6.0, RA: 4.9)
📊 Raymond Report Indicators
| Metric | Toronto | Boston |
|---|---|---|
| C.O.W. (Chances of Winning) | 35.08% | 65.09% |
| C.O.G.O. (Chances of Game Going Over) | 71% | 71% |
| DMVI (Market Value Index) | -110 | 108 |
| VIC (Market Confidence) | B (Neutral – 3 Days) | B (Bullish – 2 Days) |
| SOS (Last 7 Games) | 65.31% | 32.66% |
🧠 Situational Breakdown
Toronto Blue Jays
- Coming off a 4-game road trip
- Facing an AL East opponent after a win
- Riding an 8-game Under streak
- 1-3 SU on the road (0-4 O/U on the road)
- Averaging just 2.25 runs per game on the road as an underdog
Boston Red Sox
- Coming off a 4-game home stand
- Facing an AL East opponent after a loss
- Averaging 9.2 runs over their last 5 games
- 3-1 SU at home this season
- Have hit the Over in only 2 of 8 home games this year
🔎 Notable Trends
- Blue Jays:
- The Under is 15-41-1 when playing as a road team in April over the last 4 seasons
- 8-3 ATS overall this season, with solid run line value
- Red Sox:
- In this exact scenario (Home vs. Lefty, Game 2 of a series, off an Under and AL East loss), Boston is just 4-8 SU, but 10-2 O/U
📬 Final Thoughts
The Red Sox come in as heavy favorites after dropping the opener, but with a fresh face on the mound in Garrett Crochet. Toronto’s Easton Lucas is off to a solid start and will look to continue keeping hitters off-balance. Both teams enter this one at 6-5 on the season, but approach the game with very different profiles — Boston with firepower, Toronto with discipline and unders.
With a total sitting at 8, and both pitchers still proving their MLB staying power, tonight’s matchup could come down to bullpen depth and situational hitting.
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