Categories: MLB

MLB Handicapping Warning: Don’t Get Hooked by Road Underdogs Off a Loss

Chicago White Sox's Jose Abreu rounds the bases in the first inning of a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2020, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

By Ron Raymond | ATS STATS

If you’ve been backing MLB road underdogs coming off a loss this season, it might be time to take a hard look at your bankroll—and maybe a mirror.

From March 1st to April 22nd, 2025, teams in this situation are just 52-90 SU (36.62%), and the Over/Under isn’t doing you any favors either, hitting at a weak 42.65% clip (58-78-6). That’s not value. That’s a one-way ticket to donation city.

Let’s break it down by division, just in case you think this is an isolated case. Spoiler: it’s not.

💀 The Ugly Truth by Division

AL Central (SU: 8-26 / 23.53%)
This is the absolute bottom of the barrel. If you’ve been tailing AL Central road dogs after a loss, congratulations—you’ve likely funded your bookie’s spring vacation.
AL East (SU: 7-14 / 33.33%)
Bettors love the Yankees and Red Sox name brand, but off a loss and on the road? Fade it like a bad pop single.
NL East (SU: 8-15 / 34.78%)
Not quite as painful, but still not profitable. Backing teams like the Mets or Nationals as road dogs after a loss? Yeah, not the move.
NL West (SU: 9-10 / 47.37%)
The only division flirting with break-even territory, but don’t let it fool you—the Under is crushing at 26.32%, so even total bettors can’t catch a break.
NL Central (SU: 12-17 / 41.38%)
Better, but still below water. These results show volatility, not consistency.
AL West (SU: 8-8 / 50%)
The lone .500 survivor. But before you get too excited, that’s eight wins. Not exactly a sample size that screams “system edge.”

🎯 The Betting Lesson

This isn’t about avoiding underdogs altogether. It’s about context.
Road team? Underdog? Just lost? That’s a triple red flag. You’re asking a team that’s already shown vulnerability to bounce back in hostile territory—where lineups change, bullpens shrink, and momentum is nowhere to be found.

📉 The Bottom Line

You wouldn’t buy a stock trending down with no bounce in sight. Why bet on a team in the exact same boat?
The data doesn’t lie: MLB road underdogs off a loss are a bankroll killer. If you’re trying to grind profits this season, don’t bet hope—bet probability.

✅ Follow the market cycles.
✅ Track situational stats like these.
✅ And most importantly—don’t force the dog when the bite is gone.

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Ron Raymond

Ron Raymond is a well-known sports handicapper who runs ATS Stats and the Raymond REPORT. He has over 21 years of experience in the industry and provides expert analysis and predictions for various sports, including football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.