Categories: MLB

MLB Handicapping Warning: Don’t Get Hooked by Road Underdogs Off a Loss

By Ron Raymond | ATS STATS

If you’ve been backing MLB road underdogs coming off a loss this season, it might be time to take a hard look at your bankroll—and maybe a mirror.

From March 1st to April 22nd, 2025, teams in this situation are just 52-90 SU (36.62%), and the Over/Under isn’t doing you any favors either, hitting at a weak 42.65% clip (58-78-6). That’s not value. That’s a one-way ticket to donation city.

Let’s break it down by division, just in case you think this is an isolated case. Spoiler: it’s not.


💀 The Ugly Truth by Division

  • AL Central (SU: 8-26 / 23.53%)
    This is the absolute bottom of the barrel. If you’ve been tailing AL Central road dogs after a loss, congratulations—you’ve likely funded your bookie’s spring vacation.
  • AL East (SU: 7-14 / 33.33%)
    Bettors love the Yankees and Red Sox name brand, but off a loss and on the road? Fade it like a bad pop single.
  • NL East (SU: 8-15 / 34.78%)
    Not quite as painful, but still not profitable. Backing teams like the Mets or Nationals as road dogs after a loss? Yeah, not the move.
  • NL West (SU: 9-10 / 47.37%)
    The only division flirting with break-even territory, but don’t let it fool you—the Under is crushing at 26.32%, so even total bettors can’t catch a break.
  • NL Central (SU: 12-17 / 41.38%)
    Better, but still below water. These results show volatility, not consistency.
  • AL West (SU: 8-8 / 50%)
    The lone .500 survivor. But before you get too excited, that’s eight wins. Not exactly a sample size that screams “system edge.”

🎯 The Betting Lesson

This isn’t about avoiding underdogs altogether. It’s about context.
Road team? Underdog? Just lost? That’s a triple red flag. You’re asking a team that’s already shown vulnerability to bounce back in hostile territory—where lineups change, bullpens shrink, and momentum is nowhere to be found.


📉 The Bottom Line

You wouldn’t buy a stock trending down with no bounce in sight. Why bet on a team in the exact same boat?
The data doesn’t lie: MLB road underdogs off a loss are a bankroll killer. If you’re trying to grind profits this season, don’t bet hope—bet probability.

✅ Follow the market cycles.
✅ Track situational stats like these.
✅ And most importantly—don’t force the dog when the bite is gone.


📊 Want these insights every day?
Sign up now for a FREE 7-DAY TRIAL at ATS STATS and unlock the power of the Raymond Report—where numbers don’t lie, but losers do.

#MLB #SportsBetting #BaseballTrends #RaymondReport #ATSSTATS #UnderdogAlert

Ron Raymond

Ron Raymond is a well-known sports handicapper who runs ATS Stats and the Raymond REPORT. He has over 21 years of experience in the industry and provides expert analysis and predictions for various sports, including football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.

Recent Posts

CFL Week 7 Fun Fact Report – July 17–20, 2025

Powered by ATS STATS & The Raymond Report System Here’s your CFL Week 7 breakdown:…

21 hours ago

Sports Betting Picks – Expert Predictions from ATS STATS

Win More with Data-Driven Sports Betting Picks   If you're looking for sports betting picks…

22 hours ago

Parx Racing Picks and Raymond Track Report – Monday, July 14, 2025

  If you're looking for horse racing betting insights for Parx Racing today, Monday, July…

2 days ago

MLB Fun Fact Sunday – July 13, 2025 Edition

Brought to you by ATS STATS & The Raymond Report System   It’s Sunday Funday,…

3 days ago

🎯 MLB Fun Fact Report – Saturday, July 12, 2025

Brought to you by ATS STATS & The Raymond Report   If you like streaks,…

4 days ago

Raymond Report MLB Fun Fact Friday – July 11, 2025

Powered by ATS STATS: Smart Data. Sharp Bets.   The MLB board for Friday, July…

5 days ago