MLB Market Value Report – August 18, 2025

Here is today’s MLB Market Report for Monday, August 18, 2025, where each team stands, their current cycles, and which clubs are buy/sell candidates for bettors.

🔥 Bullish Teams (Buy Signals)

These clubs are holding strong form and showing confidence in the betting markets. Bettors backing them are paying a premium, but momentum is real.

• Milwaukee Brewers (A) – 78-45 (.63)
  🚀 Still the class of MLB, but that -250 market value shows books aren’t giving discounts. Despite a 1-game skid, they’re a premium stock worth holding.
• Toronto Blue Jays (B) – 73-52 (.58)
  5-2 last 7, but off a loss. Still a bullish trend, yet books are adjusting fast with a -230 market price.
• Detroit Tigers (B) – 73-53 (.58)
  Mirrors Toronto’s cycle (5-2 last 7, 1L). The Tigers are undervalued compared to Jays, making them the sneaky bullish play.
• NY Yankees (B) – 67-57 (.54)
  🔥 Winners of 3 straight and 5-2 in their last 7. Back to form and finally rewarding bettors. Market is catching up (-150) but still playable.
• Kansas City Royals (B) – 63-61 (.51)
  Don’t look now—KC is above .500 and riding a 3-game streak. Market still hesitant (-110 value). They’re the underdog darling right now.
• Atlanta Braves (C) – 56-68 (.45)
  Record screams “bad team,” but market screams BUY. Braves are on a 5-game win streak and 6-1 in their last 7. Biggest “cycle mover” of the week.
• Colorado Rockies (C) – 35-88 (.28)
  Basement team, but don’t ignore the 5-2 run with a 3-game streak. At +240 market price, they’re paying like a penny stock that just found life.

📉 Bearish Teams (Sell Signals)

These teams are in slumps or overpriced relative to performance. Avoid unless fading.

• Cleveland Guardians (B) – 63-59 (.52)
  2-5 last 7, losers of 3 straight. Value index dropping. Market hasn’t fully adjusted yet, so fade city.
• Texas Rangers (B) – 62-63 (.50)
  Mediocre record, and the market is punishing them with bearish signals (2-5 last 7). Confidence is just 28%.
• St. Louis Cardinals (C) – 61-64 (.49)
  5 straight losses, and trending hard down. Market index climbing into positive territory (126), which means overvalued despite slump.
• San Francisco Giants (C) – 60-64 (.48)
  Free fall. Just 1 win in last 7. Bearish cycle is firm—stay away.
• Miami Marlins (C) – 59-65 (.48)
  2-5 last 7, overall market cooling. Sitting in “no trust” territory.
• Minnesota Twins (C) – 57-66 (.46)
  Bad form, no spark. Market is done with them until they prove otherwise.
• Pittsburgh Pirates (C) – 52-73 (.42)
  One of the weakest cycles: 1-6 last 7, losers of 2 straight. Nothing to see here.
• Chicago White Sox (C) – 44-80 (.35)
  Yikes. Four straight losses, confidence at 28%. This is a team in liquidation.

⚖️ Neutral Teams (Hold / Wait-and-See)

These teams are bouncing between wins and losses—handicapper’s coin flips.

• LA Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Astros, Mariners, Red Sox, Mets
  All hovering around .54–.57 win rates with streaks of 1-3 games. Market pricing them fairly, no sharp edge either way.
• Rays, D-Backs, Angels, Orioles, A’s, Nationals
  Same bucket—hovering in cycles. Play them spot-to-spot, matchup-dependent only.

📊 Market Observations

• Top Heavy: Milwaukee (+ Toronto/Detroit) are driving the “A/B” premium. Books are inflating lines accordingly.
• Cycle Movers: Atlanta & Colorado are the best value movers this week. Short-term bullish, long-term still risky.
• Fade Material: Cleveland, St. Louis, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh stand out as consistent losers in poor cycles.

✅ Takeaway for Bettors:
Stick with Milwaukee, Toronto, Detroit, Yankees, KC, and Atlanta until the market fully adjusts.
Fade Cleveland, St. Louis, SF, and Pittsburgh until proven otherwise.
Colorado is the lottery ticket team right now, riding a hot streak despite sitting at the bottom of MLB.