GAME IDENTIFIERS & ODDS
- MATCHUP: New York Yankees (41-27) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (34-36)
- DATE: Saturday, June 13, 2026
- TIME: 3:07 PM ET
- VENUE: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
- MONEYLINE: Yankees -131 | Blue Jays +109
- TOTAL: 7.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)
- CATEGORY: MLB
PITCHING MATCHUP: ANALYTICAL BREAKDOWN
NEW YORK YANKEES: CAM SCHLITTLER (RHP)
- SEASON RECORD: 7-3
- ERA: 1.87
- WHIP: 0.87
- K/9: 10.2
- BB/9: 1.4
- SITUATIONAL: Elite performance level. Sub-2.00 ERA indicates high-tier dominance. WHIP below 0.90 suggests minimal baserunners allowed. After a Yankees loss, Schlittler is 3-0.
- BULLISH INDICATORS: Extremely high strikeout-to-walk ratio. Efficient pitch counts. Dominant on the road (1.45 ERA in 5 starts).
TORONTO BLUE JAYS: KEVIN GAUSMAN (RHP)
- SEASON RECORD: 4-4
- ERA: 3.60
- WHIP: 1.09
- K/9: 9.5
- BB/9: 2.1
- SITUATIONAL: Neutral performance. Gausman has shown volatility in 2026. ERA is significantly higher at home (4.12) compared to road starts.
- BEARISH INDICATORS: High barrel rate allowed in recent three starts. Velocity dip observed in 6th inning of previous outing.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS & SYSTEM ENTRIES
NEW YORK YANKEES
- ROAD DOMINANCE: Yankees currently 22-15 on the road.
- BOUNCE BACK: 14-8 SU after a loss this season.
- PITCHING TREND: 8-2 SU in the last 10 games started by Cam Schlittler.
- OFFENSIVE NOTE: Aaron Judge (Out – Injury). Lineup efficiency down 12% in last 5 games.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
- HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE: Blue Jays won the series opener 8-5.
- SERIES HISTORY: Toronto has won 9 of the last 10 games played at Rogers Centre against the Yankees.
- MOMENTUM: Alejandro Kirk hitting .425 in his last 10 games; 3 hits and 2 RBI in previous game.
- TOTALS TREND: Over is 6-1 in Toronto’s last 7 Saturday games.
RAYMOND REPORT: COMPUTER PROJECTION & VALUE
| METRIC | YANKEES | BLUE JAYS |
|---|---|---|
| PROJECTED SCORE | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| PROJECTED TOTAL | 7.9 | — |
| C.O.W. (CHANCE OF WINNING) | 58% | 42% |
| VALUE LINE | -138 | +138 |
| MARKET PRICE | -131 | +109 |
| SITUATION | BULLISH | NEUTRAL |
CHANCE OF WINNING (C.O.W.) ANALYSIS:
The Yankees hold a 58% Chance of Winning (C.O.W.) based on the current pitching delta. Schlittler’s 1.87 ERA against the Blue Jays' offensive inconsistency provides a significant statistical edge. The market price of -131 offers slight value against the Raymond Report Value Line of -138.
TOP 5 BETTING OPTIONS
- SIDE: NEW YORK YANKEES (-131) – Schlittler is the primary differentiator. His 0.87 WHIP is the elite metric of the slate.
- TOTAL: UNDER 7.5 (+100) – While the computer projects 7.9, Schlittler’s road ERA (1.45) suggests a lower ceiling for Toronto’s scoring.
- SIDE: YANKEES 1ST 5 INNINGS (-135) – Avoiding the bullpen volatility and backing the 1.87 ERA starter.
- TOTAL: TORONTO BLUE JAYS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 3.5 (-115) – Derived from Schlittler’s efficiency in preventing baserunners.
- SIDE: NEW YORK YANKEES (LIVE BETTING) – If Yankees fall behind early, the C.O.W. remains high due to Gausman’s 3rd-time-through-order metrics.
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DETAILED STATISTICAL COMPARISON
OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION (LAST 10 GAMES)
- YANKEES: 4.2 Runs/Game | .241 AVG | .315 OBP | 12 HR
- BLUE JAYS: 4.8 Runs/Game | .265 AVG | .332 OBP | 9 HR
BULLPEN EFFICIENCY (SEASON)
- YANKEES: 3.42 ERA | 1.15 WHIP | 82% Save Conversion
- BLUE JAYS: 4.15 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 68% Save Conversion
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
- YANKEES AS FAVORITE: 31-15 SU
- BLUE JAYS AS UNDERDOG: 12-18 SU
- DAY GAMES (SATURDAY): Yankees (9-4), Blue Jays (6-8)
MARKET INDEX & LINE MOVES
- OPENING LINE: Yankees -125
- CURRENT LINE: Yankees -131
- MOVEMENT: 6-point shift toward New York. Indicates sharp action favoring Schlittler despite Toronto's historical home dominance over the Yankees.
- TOTAL MOVEMENT: Opened 7.5. Remaining steady with heavy juice on the Over (-120).
TECHNICAL REPORT: FINAL VERDICT
The data suggests a strong leaning toward the New York Yankees on the Moneyline. While Toronto's historical trend of winning 9 of 10 at home against New York is noted, the pitching mismatch is too wide to ignore. Cam Schlittler’s 1.87 ERA is the highest-rated metric in the ATS Stats Database.
Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has struggled with consistency, and despite the absence of Aaron Judge, the Yankees' ability to win on the road (22-15) remains a pillar of their 2026 season strategy.
BEST BET: New York Yankees MoneyLine (-131)
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