It’s a loaded Friday card across Major League Baseball with playoff races heating up and betting markets on full alert. The Raymond Report has the numbers, value plays, and key situational breakdowns for each matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds (-126, O/U 9) – 6:40 PM ET
Liberatore takes the hill for St. Louis after a solid win vs. Pittsburgh. The Cards sit 66-69, while the Reds, despite a 3-game losing streak, lean behind Zach Littell (57.54% C.O.W). Both clubs trend to the Under lately.
Edge: Small market lean Reds at home, but total looks like a grind spot.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-187, O/U 9) – 6:45 PM ET
The Braves are reeling after a 19-4 thrashing. Bryce Elder’s 36% C.O.W doesn’t inspire confidence. Philly is red-hot behind Ranger Suarez (62.82% C.O.W) and sitting at 77-57.
Edge: Phillies chalk with confidence.
Tampa Bay Rays (-149) vs. Washington Nationals (O/U 9) – 6:45 PM ET
Two struggling clubs square off. Adrian Houser (Rays) and Mitchell Parker (Nats) both project close to 50% C.O.W, but Washington’s 5-game skid keeps them in fade territory.
Edge: Rays in a tight spot, but bullpen depth matters.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-137, O/U 7.5) – 7:07 PM ET
The Brewers still hold an 83-52 record, but they’ve dropped two straight. Freddy Peralta faces off against Shane Bieber, who gives Toronto a 57.5% C.O.W edge.
Edge: Jays behind Bieber at Rogers Centre, but keep an eye on total staying Under.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets (-176, O/U 8) – 7:10 PM ET
The Mets stumbled yesterday but still back Jonah Tong (60.5% C.O.W). The Marlins have dropped 7 of 10 and start Eury Perez.
Edge: Mets bounce-back spot at Citi Field.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Boston Red Sox (-110, O/U 8) – 7:10 PM ET
Paul Skenes gets the ball for the Bucs (48% C.O.W), while Boston counters with Payton Tolle. The Sox are 75-60 and winners of 4 straight. Both sides showing Bullish cycles.
Edge: Slight Sox lean at Fenway; watch totals, strong Under trend in play.
Seattle Mariners (-164) vs. Cleveland Guardians (O/U 8) – 7:10 PM ET
Seattle (72-62) brings George Kirby with a 51% C.O.W. Cleveland trots out Logan Allen (38.4% C.O.W) in a tough spot. Mariners hold a strong market edge.
Edge: Mariners chalk should roll.
New York Yankees (-223) vs. Chicago White Sox (O/U 9) – 7:40 PM ET
The Yanks are red-hot, winners of 5 straight and smashing Chicago 10-4 yesterday. Carlos Rodon carries a 68% C.O.W. White Sox have lost 3 straight and continue to be fade material.
Edge: Yankees in another smash spot.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros (-176, O/U 9) – 8:10 PM ET
The Astros are 74-60 and Cristian Javier holds a 66% C.O.W edge. The Angels are off a 20-run pounding and counter Tyler Anderson.
Edge: Astros chalk is justified; Angels tough to trust.
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals (-123, O/U 9) – 8:10 PM ET
Detroit is slipping with 4 straight losses, while Kansas City comes in 69-65 and winners of two straight. Chris Paddack vs. Seth Lugo looks like a solid pitching duel.
Edge: Royals value at home.
San Diego Padres (-136) vs. Minnesota Twins (O/U 8.5) – 8:10 PM ET
The Padres have hit a cold patch but still carry value behind Nestor Cortes (47% C.O.W). The Twins counter with Zebby Matthews.
Edge: Padres lean, but total could sneak Over.
Chicago Cubs (-238) vs. Colorado Rockies (O/U 11) – 8:40 PM ET
Cubs are heavy chalk with Cade Horton (55% C.O.W) against German Marquez. Rockies’ struggles continue at 38-95.
Edge: Cubs big chalk; totals lean Over at Coors.
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics (-132, O/U 10) – 10:05 PM ET
Jack Leiter goes for Texas, Jeffrey Springs for Oakland. Both teams hovering around .500. Athletics have been sneaky lately with 7-3 run.
Edge: Value dog alert – Oakland live at home.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-199, O/U 8.5) – 10:10 PM ET
Dodgers are on a 4-game win streak and counter with Blake Snell (61% C.O.W). D-backs start Zac Gallen, but LA’s lineup edge is too strong.
Edge: Dodgers stay hot.
Baltimore Orioles vs. San Francisco Giants (-164, O/U 7.5) – 10:15 PM ET
The O’s continue to slide, losers of 4 straight. Dean Kremer starts, but Robbie Ray and the Giants (60% C.O.W) are surging with 5 wins in a row.
Edge: Giants chalk is justified; Orioles still a fade.
🔑 ATS STATS TAKEAWAYS
- Strong Chalk Plays: Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Mariners.
- Live Dogs: Pirates, Athletics.
- Totals Angles: Under in Cubs/Rockies risky at Coors; look to Overs in Braves/Phillies & Coors Field slugfest.
👉 Get the full Raymond Report charts, market confidence data, and 80% Club Trends at ATSStats.com.
