Market edges, pitcher form, streaks, and our VI/C.O.W. indicators for every matchup.
Brewers at Blue Jays (-144, O/U 8.5) – 3:07 PM ET
- Proj: MIL 4.25 vs TOR 4.73 (Total 8.98)
- Pitching: Quinn Priester (43.1% C.O.W) vs Kevin Gausman (56.9%)
- Form: MIL 84-52 (5–5 L10); TOR 78-57 (6 straight Overs run in recent stretch)
- Signals: VI: TOR -117.25; C.O.G.O: 32%
ATS Read: Jays bounce-back spot behind Gausman; lean TOR -144. Low C.O.G.O. keeps the Under in play despite recent TOR Over run.
Rays (-148) at Nationals (O/U 8.5) – 4:05 PM ET
- Proj: TB 4.98 vs WSH 4.33 (9.31)
- Pitching: Ryan Pepiot (52.6%) vs Jake Irvin (47.6%)
- Form: TB off win; WSH 6 straight losses
- Signals: VI TB -123.59; C.O.G.O: 67%
ATS Read: Market favors Tampa and current Nats slide agrees. Lean TB -148. High C.O.G.O. nudges Over 8.5 consideration.
Marlins at Mets (-187, O/U 8) – 4:10 PM ET
- Proj: MIA 3.54 vs NYM 4.53 (8.07)
- Pitching: Edward Cabrera (39.5%) vs David Peterson (62.3%)
- Form: NYM 73-62; just hung a 19-spot; MIA 4–6 L10
- Signals: VI NYM -221.93; C.O.G.O: 33%
ATS Read: Metrics stack for the home side. NYM -187 or -1.5 at plus price. Total leans Under.
Pirates at Red Sox (-181, O/U 9) – 4:10 PM ET
- Proj: PIT 3.92 vs BOS 5.03 (8.95)
- Pitching: Johan Oviedo (37.9%) vs Dustin May (63.1%)
- Form: PIT 7–3 L10; BOS 75-61 but 5 straight Unders
- Signals: VI BOS -178.71; C.O.G.O: 78%
ATS Read: Pricey but justified with May edge. Lean BOS -181. Very high C.O.G.O. → Over look if market dips, but respect BOS Under streak.
Braves at Phillies (-150, O/U 7.5) – 6:05 PM ET
- Proj: ATL 3.71 vs PHI 4.32 (8.03)
- Pitching: Chris Sale (42.7%) vs Cristopher Sánchez (56.4%)
- Form: PHI 78-57, 2 straight wins; ATL 2 straight losses
- Signals: VI PHI -208.19; C.O.G.O: 52%
ATS Read: PHI -150 gets the nod; total near our number—no strong edge.
Cardinals at Reds (-143, O/U 8) – 6:40 PM ET
- Proj: STL 3.34 vs CIN 4.21 (7.55)
- Pitching: Michael McGreevy (42.1%) vs Andrew Abbott (71.2%)
- Form: CIN on 4-game skid but pitching upgrade today
- Signals: VI CIN -162.61; C.O.G.O: 57%
ATS Read: Buy the pitching bounce. CIN -143. Our total model sits Under 8 (7.55).
Padres (-176) at Twins (O/U 8.5) – 7:10 PM ET
- Proj: SD 5.09 vs MIN 3.97 (9.06)
- Pitching: Nick Pivetta (56.4%) vs Taj Bradley (39.3%)
- Form: SD 6–4 L10; MIN 3–7 L10, heavy Over run
- Signals: VI SD -151.58; C.O.G.O: 36%
ATS Read: Padres -176 or -1.5 viable. Despite model total >9, the low C.O.G.O. cools enthusiasm on Over.
Yankees (-225) at White Sox (O/U 9) – 7:10 PM ET
- Proj: NYY 6.28 vs CWS 3.59 (9.87)
- Pitching: Cam Schlittler (72.2%) vs Shane Smith (43.5%)
- Form: NYY 6 straight wins; CWS 4 straight losses
- Signals: VI NYY -165.78; C.O.G.O: 25%
ATS Read: Chalk train. NYY -225 / -1.5. Total projects high, but 25% C.O.G.O. tempers Over—team total NYY may be cleaner.
Angels at Astros (-156, O/U 9) – 7:10 PM ET
- Proj: LAA 4.18 vs HOU 4.82 (9.00)
- Pitching: Kyle Hendricks (41.3%) vs Spencer Arrighetti (59.7%)
- Form: HOU 3 straight wins & 5 Unders in 6; Angels 2–8 L10
- Signals: VI HOU -179.59; C.O.G.O: 58%
ATS Read: Astros -156. With C.O.G.O. near 60%, Over is live if 8.5 shows.
Mariners (-142) at Guardians (O/U 7.5) – 7:15 PM ET
- Proj: SEA 4.32 vs CLE 3.88 (8.20)
- Pitching: Logan Gilbert (48.0%) vs Gavin Williams (45.6%)
- Form: SEA 72-63; CLE riding 3 straight wins
- Signals: VI SEA -125.53; C.O.G.O: 46%
ATS Read: Slight edge SEA -142; total a pass near fair.
Tigers (-126) at Royals (O/U 9) – 7:15 PM ET
- Proj: DET 4.69 vs KC 4.25 (8.94)
- Pitching: Jack Flaherty (49.1%) vs Stephen Kolek (45.9%)
- Form: DET 79-57, 6–4 L10; KC steady 5–5 L10
- Signals: VI DET -132.27; C.O.G.O: 51%
ATS Read: Modest lean DET -126. Total close to fair.
Orioles (-132) at Giants (O/U 8) – 7:15 PM ET
- Proj: BAL 4.81 vs SF 4.17 (8.98)
- Pitching: Trevor Rogers (44.8%) vs Tristan Beck (41.7%)
- Form: BAL 5 straight losses; SF 6 straight wins
- Signals: VI BAL -106; C.O.G.O: 53%
ATS Read: Market says O’s, form screams Giants. Price/value points to SF dog at home; Over lean to 9.
Cubs (-207) at Rockies (O/U 11) – 8:10 PM ET
- Proj: CHC 6.68 vs COL 4.91 (11.59)
- Pitching: Javier Assad (61.6%) vs McCade Brown (31.3%)
- Form: COL 2–8 L10; CHC 6–4 L10
- Signals: VI CHC -145.1; C.O.G.O: 52%
ATS Read: Cubs -1.5 preferred to eat chalk; Over aligns with model at Coors.
D-backs at Dodgers (-225, O/U 8.5) – 9:10 PM ET
- Proj: ARI 3.82 vs LAD 5.20 (9.02)
- Pitching: Eduardo Rodriguez (30.3%) vs Tyler Glasnow (66.5%)
- Form: ARI 7–3 L10 (won last 3); LAD 6–4 L10
- Signals: VI LAD -188.41; C.O.G.O: 67%
ATS Read: Dodgers -225 / -1.5. Elevated C.O.G.O. boosts Over 8.5/9 viability.
Rangers (-137) at Athletics (O/U 10.5) – 10:05 PM ET
- Proj: TEX 5.49 vs OAK 5.20 (10.69)
- Pitching: Merrill Kelly (52.2%) vs Mason Barnett (47.9%)
- Form: TEX 3 straight wins, 7–3 L10; OAK 7–3 L10 as well
- Signals: VI TEX -138.68; C.O.G.O: 51%
ATS Read: Numbers favor TEX -137 in a high-variance total environment; Over aligns with model (10.69).
🔑 ATS STATS Card Cliff Notes
- Sides with strongest support: Yankees, Mets, Astros, Padres, Reds, Blue Jays.
- Live dog/contrarian looks: Giants vs O’s slide; modest case for Pirates RL+1.5 if price pops.
- Totals leans: Over at Coors (CHC/COL); Over in LAD/ARI; Under leans in NYM/MIA & CIN/STL.
