Categories: MLB

MLB Round-Up Preview — Saturday, Aug. 30, 2025

Market edges, pitcher form, streaks, and our VI/C.O.W. indicators for every matchup.

Brewers at Blue Jays (-144, O/U 8.5) – 3:07 PM ET

Proj: MIL 4.25 vs TOR 4.73 (Total 8.98)
Pitching: Quinn Priester (43.1% C.O.W) vs Kevin Gausman (56.9%)
Form: MIL 84-52 (5–5 L10); TOR 78-57 (6 straight Overs run in recent stretch)
Signals: VI: TOR -117.25; C.O.G.O: 32%
ATS Read: Jays bounce-back spot behind Gausman; lean TOR -144. Low C.O.G.O. keeps the Under in play despite recent TOR Over run.

Rays (-148) at Nationals (O/U 8.5) – 4:05 PM ET

Proj: TB 4.98 vs WSH 4.33 (9.31)
Pitching: Ryan Pepiot (52.6%) vs Jake Irvin (47.6%)
Form: TB off win; WSH 6 straight losses
Signals: VI TB -123.59; C.O.G.O: 67%
ATS Read: Market favors Tampa and current Nats slide agrees. Lean TB -148. High C.O.G.O. nudges Over 8.5 consideration.

Marlins at Mets (-187, O/U 8) – 4:10 PM ET

Proj: MIA 3.54 vs NYM 4.53 (8.07)
Pitching: Edward Cabrera (39.5%) vs David Peterson (62.3%)
Form: NYM 73-62; just hung a 19-spot; MIA 4–6 L10
Signals: VI NYM -221.93; C.O.G.O: 33%
ATS Read: Metrics stack for the home side. NYM -187 or -1.5 at plus price. Total leans Under.

Pirates at Red Sox (-181, O/U 9) – 4:10 PM ET

Proj: PIT 3.92 vs BOS 5.03 (8.95)
Pitching: Johan Oviedo (37.9%) vs Dustin May (63.1%)
Form: PIT 7–3 L10; BOS 75-61 but 5 straight Unders
Signals: VI BOS -178.71; C.O.G.O: 78%
ATS Read: Pricey but justified with May edge. Lean BOS -181. Very high C.O.G.O. → Over look if market dips, but respect BOS Under streak.

Braves at Phillies (-150, O/U 7.5) – 6:05 PM ET

Proj: ATL 3.71 vs PHI 4.32 (8.03)
Pitching: Chris Sale (42.7%) vs Cristopher Sánchez (56.4%)
Form: PHI 78-57, 2 straight wins; ATL 2 straight losses
Signals: VI PHI -208.19; C.O.G.O: 52%
ATS Read: PHI -150 gets the nod; total near our number—no strong edge.

Cardinals at Reds (-143, O/U 8) – 6:40 PM ET

Proj: STL 3.34 vs CIN 4.21 (7.55)
Pitching: Michael McGreevy (42.1%) vs Andrew Abbott (71.2%)
Form: CIN on 4-game skid but pitching upgrade today
Signals: VI CIN -162.61; C.O.G.O: 57%
ATS Read: Buy the pitching bounce. CIN -143. Our total model sits Under 8 (7.55).

Padres (-176) at Twins (O/U 8.5) – 7:10 PM ET

Proj: SD 5.09 vs MIN 3.97 (9.06)
Pitching: Nick Pivetta (56.4%) vs Taj Bradley (39.3%)
Form: SD 6–4 L10; MIN 3–7 L10, heavy Over run
Signals: VI SD -151.58; C.O.G.O: 36%
ATS Read: Padres -176 or -1.5 viable. Despite model total >9, the low C.O.G.O. cools enthusiasm on Over.

Yankees (-225) at White Sox (O/U 9) – 7:10 PM ET

Proj: NYY 6.28 vs CWS 3.59 (9.87)
Pitching: Cam Schlittler (72.2%) vs Shane Smith (43.5%)
Form: NYY 6 straight wins; CWS 4 straight losses
Signals: VI NYY -165.78; C.O.G.O: 25%
ATS Read: Chalk train. NYY -225 / -1.5. Total projects high, but 25% C.O.G.O. tempers Over—team total NYY may be cleaner.

Angels at Astros (-156, O/U 9) – 7:10 PM ET

Proj: LAA 4.18 vs HOU 4.82 (9.00)
Pitching: Kyle Hendricks (41.3%) vs Spencer Arrighetti (59.7%)
Form: HOU 3 straight wins & 5 Unders in 6; Angels 2–8 L10
Signals: VI HOU -179.59; C.O.G.O: 58%
ATS Read: Astros -156. With C.O.G.O. near 60%, Over is live if 8.5 shows.

Mariners (-142) at Guardians (O/U 7.5) – 7:15 PM ET

Proj: SEA 4.32 vs CLE 3.88 (8.20)
Pitching: Logan Gilbert (48.0%) vs Gavin Williams (45.6%)
Form: SEA 72-63; CLE riding 3 straight wins
Signals: VI SEA -125.53; C.O.G.O: 46%
ATS Read: Slight edge SEA -142; total a pass near fair.

Tigers (-126) at Royals (O/U 9) – 7:15 PM ET

Proj: DET 4.69 vs KC 4.25 (8.94)
Pitching: Jack Flaherty (49.1%) vs Stephen Kolek (45.9%)
Form: DET 79-57, 6–4 L10; KC steady 5–5 L10
Signals: VI DET -132.27; C.O.G.O: 51%
ATS Read: Modest lean DET -126. Total close to fair.

Orioles (-132) at Giants (O/U 8) – 7:15 PM ET

Proj: BAL 4.81 vs SF 4.17 (8.98)
Pitching: Trevor Rogers (44.8%) vs Tristan Beck (41.7%)
Form: BAL 5 straight losses; SF 6 straight wins
Signals: VI BAL -106; C.O.G.O: 53%
ATS Read: Market says O’s, form screams Giants. Price/value points to SF dog at home; Over lean to 9.

Cubs (-207) at Rockies (O/U 11) – 8:10 PM ET

Proj: CHC 6.68 vs COL 4.91 (11.59)
Pitching: Javier Assad (61.6%) vs McCade Brown (31.3%)
Form: COL 2–8 L10; CHC 6–4 L10
Signals: VI CHC -145.1; C.O.G.O: 52%
ATS Read: Cubs -1.5 preferred to eat chalk; Over aligns with model at Coors.

D-backs at Dodgers (-225, O/U 8.5) – 9:10 PM ET

Proj: ARI 3.82 vs LAD 5.20 (9.02)
Pitching: Eduardo Rodriguez (30.3%) vs Tyler Glasnow (66.5%)
Form: ARI 7–3 L10 (won last 3); LAD 6–4 L10
Signals: VI LAD -188.41; C.O.G.O: 67%
ATS Read: Dodgers -225 / -1.5. Elevated C.O.G.O. boosts Over 8.5/9 viability.

Rangers (-137) at Athletics (O/U 10.5) – 10:05 PM ET

Proj: TEX 5.49 vs OAK 5.20 (10.69)
Pitching: Merrill Kelly (52.2%) vs Mason Barnett (47.9%)
Form: TEX 3 straight wins, 7–3 L10; OAK 7–3 L10 as well
Signals: VI TEX -138.68; C.O.G.O: 51%
ATS Read: Numbers favor TEX -137 in a high-variance total environment; Over aligns with model (10.69).

🔑 ATS STATS Card Cliff Notes

Sides with strongest support: Yankees, Mets, Astros, Padres, Reds, Blue Jays.
Live dog/contrarian looks: Giants vs O’s slide; modest case for Pirates RL+1.5 if price pops.
Totals leans: Over at Coors (CHC/COL); Over in LAD/ARI; Under leans in NYM/MIA & CIN/STL.

Ron Raymond

Ron Raymond is a well-known sports handicapper who runs ATS Stats and the Raymond REPORT. He has over 21 years of experience in the industry and provides expert analysis and predictions for various sports, including football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.