The MLB betting markets have leveled off heading into the weekend. Yesterday’s action saw the board split right down the middle, with no clear edge for favorites, underdogs, or totals. Let’s dig into the numbers using the Raymond Report SBI:
Straight-Up (SU) Favorites
- 1-Day: 50% – Neutral
- 3-Day: 47% – Neutral
- 7-Day: 50.9% – Neutral
- 1-Month: 55.5% – Neutral
- YTD: 55.7% – Neutral
📌 Analysis: The market is stagnant. After a bullish stretch earlier this week, SU favorites cooled to a coin-flip yesterday. Longer-term trends (month and YTD) still lean slightly chalk, but the edge is marginal.
Totals (Over/Under)
- 1-Day: 50% Overs – Neutral
- 3-Day: 52.7% Overs – Neutral
- 7-Day: 53% Overs – Neutral
- 1-Month: 52.1% Overs – Neutral
- YTD: 48.6% Overs – Neutral
📌 Analysis: Totals have flattened out across the board. Overs are landing just above 50% in the short term, but the season-to-date number remains under 49%. Pitching and bullpen usage continue to stabilize scoring, keeping totals in the “neutral zone.”
ATS Favorites (Runline)
- 1-Day: 50% – Neutral
- 3-Day: 51.3% – Neutral
- 7-Day: 53.9% – Neutral
- 1-Month: 56.6% – Neutral
- YTD: 51.2% – Neutral
📌 Analysis: Runline favorites have cooled after a hot stretch earlier this week. The market is almost perfectly balanced — no real advantage for chalk bettors or dog hunters.
Market Takeaway
- Favorites: Sitting dead neutral. No dominant chalk cycle.
- Overs: Balanced. Slight tilt toward Overs in the 3-7 day window, but not enough to shift the market.
- Runlines: Flatlined. Runline chalk isn’t offering an edge.
👉 Translation: Bettors are in no man’s land. Markets are balanced across all three categories, meaning the best approach is to stay selective and use matchup-specific data (pitching matchups, SOS, C.O.W/C.O.G.O indicators) rather than chasing market streaks.
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